2:45 Roscommon
The Kelly Hearing Specialists Mares Maiden Hurdle at Roscommon over 2m4f63y on good ground brings together a field of 19, the majority of whom are lightly raced or stepping up markedly in trip. KTB's Fit ratings point to a race with a clear top pick on 61 but a cluster of runners in the mid-50s, underlining the tactical and uncertain nature of the contest. With no standout course form on record and several unknowns around stamina and ground, the numbers suggest a muddling affair where those with the best placed form and strongest yard representation hold the edge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner and the race should suit those ridden close to the pace. Kimi De Mai's prominent style means he is likely to race handily, potentially setting a steady tempo that could disadvantage pure hold-up types. Several runners, including Castle Garden, Everyday Life, Bigcitydreams and Wicked Pleasure, are typically held up and will be looking to produce their efforts late in a race where the key question is which horse can best handle the step up in trip while negotiating the tactical pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Kimi De Mai KTB Selection61/100
Kimi De Mai is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, most recently finishing second over 2m. He steps up in trip today, which asks a fresh question of him on pedigree and race profile. The 6-year-old is prominent and usually races handily on or close to the lead. W P Mullins has a solid 22% strike rate at Roscommon from 293 runs while Paul Townend posts 16% from 113 rides here. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and is competitive without a win at that level. The KTB Fit score of 61 makes him the clear selection.
-
2Castle Garden55/100
Castle Garden has only two runs in the book and showed little when finishing ninth on debut at a longer trip. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky. The 4-year-old is held up and usually produces its effort late, though the evidence is limited. Trainer Donal Hassett has a solid 15% strike-rate from 75 runs at Roscommon. He has one run on good ground with no win or place. The KTB Fit score stands at 55.
-
3Everyday Life55/100
Everyday Life has shown fair placed form in two of her three completed starts but was well held on her latest two outings. She steps up markedly in trip today as a lightly-raced five-year-old with only two runs in the last year, so there are plenty of unknowns. The mare is held up and usually produces its effort late, though the evidence is limited. Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue holds a solid 14% strike rate from 21 runs at Roscommon while jockey Josh Williamson operates at 8% from 12 rides here. She has one run on good ground with no win or place. The KTB Fit score is 55.
-
4I Dont Really Care55/100
I Dont Really Care is lightly raced with only three runs and a recent 0-43 sequence that offers little to go on. The drop back in trip is an unknown that could suit or not. The 5-year-old typically settles in midfield. Trainer Ray Hackett has a solid 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 17 runs while the jockey is operating at just 5% from 41 rides here. He has been placed once from two runs on good ground and remains competitive without a win. The KTB Fit score is 55.
-
5Bigcitydreams51/100
Bigcitydreams has shown very little so far with a pulled-up effort and a poor seventh from just two starts. The first-time headgear is an obvious positive attempt to spark improvement while the step up in trip poses a fresh question. The 5-year-old is held up and usually produces its effort late, though the evidence is limited. Gordon Elliott has a solid 17% strike rate from 299 runs at Roscommon. He has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface. The KTB Fit score stands at 51.
-
6Forceonmyown51/100
Forceonmyown is a useful performer who has been below form on both starts this season. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried once without success while his record on good ground is modest from a small sample. Gordon Elliott has a solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon and Jack Kennedy is similarly effective at the track. The KTB Fit score is 51.
-
7Wicked Pleasure51/100
Wicked Pleasure has shown fair form when placed on both starts so far. The step up in trip is an unknown that could suit or expose him, and with only two runs on the board the overall picture remains unclear. Henry de Bromhead has an 18% strike rate from 175 runs at Roscommon while Darragh O'Keeffe posts an 11% strike rate from 96 rides here. The KTB Fit score is 51.
-
8Brave Lady50/100
Brave Lady has been a model of consistency this year with five runner-up finishes from her last six starts and holds a useful level of ability on the figures. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her stamina. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at the track from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 5%. The KTB Fit score is 50.
-
9Culldoo49/100
Culldoo has shown ability in two starts, finishing third then second, though the small sample means any judgement must be cautious. The step up in trip is an unknown and first-time headgear is now added. Mullins has a solid 22% strike rate at the track from a large sample, while Danny Mullins records a more modest 5% from 122 rides here. The KTB Fit score is 49.
-
10Withmylittleeye48/100
Withmylittleeye is lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 30 in the latest one. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 28 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has shown fair form here with a 13% strike rate from eight rides. Stepping up in trip is an unknown at this stage. The KTB Fit score is 48.
-
11Shadonagh47/100
Shadonagh has shown little in three starts to date with a recent pulled-up effort adding to modest form figures of 45-0. The lightly-raced 5-year-old steps up markedly in trip today and that distance increase has to be treated as an unknown. Trainer Ciaran Murphy has a 5% strike rate from 56 runs at Roscommon. The KTB Fit score is 47.
-
12Getaway Tobin46/100
Getaway Tobin has recent form that has been poor with three duck eggs after a modest fourth on debut. The step up from 2m to 2m4f is an unknown that could suit or expose him further. Trainer and jockey both hold modest records at Roscommon. The KTB Fit score is 46.
-
13Dusky Night43/100
Dusky Night has shown placed form over shorter trips but his recent efforts have been patchy and he was well held on return last time. He steps up markedly in distance today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer's modest record at the track and the very limited data available mean this lightly-raced 5-year-old has to be treated with caution. The KTB Fit score is 43.
-
14Born Believing43/100
Born Believing showed useful ability when winning both starts last season over shorter. He now steps up markedly in trip for his return as a 5-year-old, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard and jockey both hold modest records at Roscommon and the small-sample data means this lightly-raced sort must be treated with caution. The KTB Fit score is 43.
-
15Daphne Blake39/100
Daphne Blake has only one run to her name and was pulled up on it, so there is very little to go on. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 21 runs at Roscommon while the jockey is 0-19 at the track. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question for a horse with such a sparse profile. The KTB Fit score is 39.
-
16Robindeepot39/100
Robindeepot has only one career run behind him so the form picture is thin and any conclusions must be tentative. The yard posts a 2% strike-rate at Roscommon from 66 runs while Aidan Kelly is 1-24 at the track, both modest records that add little encouragement. Stepping up in trip for the first time poses a fresh question on ground that remains unknown from such a small sample. The KTB Fit score is 39.
-
17Rebel Queen38/100
Rebel Queen is a useful sort who has shown some ability in four runs but remains lightly raced and not fully exposed. She drops back in trip today to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question. Both trainer and jockey have very limited experience at Roscommon so their record here cannot be judged. The KTB Fit score is 38.
-
18Bluebell Breeze38/100
Bluebell Breeze has shown modest form at best in five runs, with a string of mid-field finishes and no sign of real progress. The trip is a fresh question today having never been beyond 2m2f. Trainer and jockey both have limited records at Roscommon. The KTB Fit score is 38.
-
19Mystic Rose37/100
Mystic Rose has been well exposed over shorter trips and showed little on its latest start. It steps up markedly in distance today which asks a fresh question while its record on good ground remains modest with no win or place from seven runs. The trainer has a 4% strike rate from 28 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. The KTB Fit score is 37.
KTB verdict
Kimi De Mai stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 61. He brings smart and consistent placed form, the advantage of a prominent run-style in a muddling tactical race, and the powerful Mullins-Townend combination that has strong figures at Roscommon. The step up in trip is the main unknown but his overall profile and the KTB numbers make him the one to beat. The main dangers are likely to come from the next group on Fit, particularly those with placed form such as Brave Lady, Culldoo and Wicked Pleasure, though they all carry their own trip and freshness concerns.
KTB Selection Kimi De Mai
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a recent 2m run?
Kimi De Mai steps up in trip today having last run over 2m, which asks a fresh question of him on pedigree and race profile.
Who is the only horse in the field wearing first-time headgear?
Bigcitydreams is the only horse with first-time headgear listed.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Roscommon among those represented?
W P Mullins has a 22% strike rate at Roscommon from 293 runs.
How many runners have no course form on record?
All 19 runners have no course form on record.
Which horse has the strongest recent consistency on the figures?
Brave Lady has been a model of consistency this year with five runner-up finishes from her last six starts.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies