3:20 Roscommon
The 3:20 Roscommon is a 19-runner Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f63y on good ground. A competitive field mixes useful and fair performers, several of whom arrive in varied form after recent runs over differing trips. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Duce Bigalow heading the numbers on 62, followed closely by Kilashee on 60 and Jurality on 57.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Kilashee is the one clear front-runner with little to pressure him early. He should be allowed an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the many held-up types to reel in late. The race therefore poses the key question of whether any closer can bridge the gap on a track where an easy lead has often been an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Duce Bigalow KTB Selection62/100
Duce Bigalow is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick after finishing second then winning his last two starts. He has shown ability on good ground with a win and a placing from three runs and now drops back from three miles to a trip he has tried three times without success. The yard has no previous runners at Roscommon while Darragh O'Keeffe holds an 11 percent strike rate from 96 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it up front. Recent form figures of 25221- underline his current well-being.
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2Kilashee60/100
Kilashee is a useful performer who has won once from four starts at this track and holds a solid record on good ground with two wins and five places from nine runs. He has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts including two pulled-ups but drops back in trip today having been placed three times from eleven starts at this distance. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Roscommon is offset by the jockey's strong 40% record from a small sample of five rides here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to enjoy an uncontested lead according to the race's pace shape. His course win and placed efforts at Roscommon add to his claims.
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3Jurality57/100
Jurality is a useful performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing second on return last time and showing a solid career record over shorter trips. The step up in distance asks a fresh question while the first run at Roscommon is neutral given the yard's modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample. The jockey holds a slightly better 9% record at the track and the horse has placed on good ground before though wins remain scarce on it. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run well if the leader is allowed to get away. Recent form figures of 5604-2 show his steady level of performance.
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4Go To The Moon56/100
Go To The Moon is a useful performer who showed his best form when runner-up over this trip at Limerick last time. He was well held on his only previous visit to Roscommon and now drops back from 3m1f having failed to land a blow in two previous runs at this distance. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be another looking to close from off the pace in what could be a steadily run affair. Recent form figures of 1/0742 reflect a return to form at Limerick.
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5Let Him B52/100
Let Him B is a useful performer who showed little spark on his last three starts after a promising start to the campaign. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though he is 0-3 on good ground. The yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at Roscommon while the jockey is less proven here with an 8% record from 12 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he faces a similar task to several others in trying to come from the rear. Recent form figures of 12-009 underline the recent dip in form.
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6Ardgillan50/100
Ardgillan is a fair performer who has won his last two starts, including at this trip on his most recent outing. He has shown he handles this ground and holds strong course connections. The trainer's modest record at Roscommon is a negative while the jockey has a solid strike rate here.
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7Kellys Corner50/100
Kellys Corner is a useful performer who has shown fair form on several occasions without winning. Drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried twice before without success, which asks a fresh question. Trainer is operating at a 3% strike rate from 31 runs here while the jockey has an 11% record from 37 rides.
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8Getaway Charlie49/100
Getaway Charlie is a useful performer who has shown his best at this track with a third and a fourth from three runs. Drops back from 3m to a trip where he has been placed without winning, and he acts on good ground. Trainer's modest record here and the jockey's lack of success at the venue are both negatives.
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9Chanceitlucky49/100
Chanceitlucky is a fair performer who has been well below form in two starts this season. Only one run at this track and drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at 2m4f on previous attempts. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Roscommon is at least matched by the A/E of 1.02.
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10Move It On Over47/100
Move It On Over is a fair performer who has shown some ability on his better days and has already won over today's trip. He has been below form on both previous visits to Roscommon and the trainer's record here is poor. Jockey has a solid strike rate at the track but the horse arrives with a bit to prove on recent efforts.
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11Ancient Myth46/100
Ancient Myth is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but arrives in poor form having been beaten 30 lengths or more in four of his last five starts. The drop back in trip looks a reasonable move and his placed effort on good ground shows he handles the surface. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 5% strike rate here.
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12Stily46/100
Stily is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent efforts but has been out of form since returning from a break. He has shown some ability on good ground yet remains winless and was well held on his only previous visit to Roscommon. The step up in trip asks a fresh question while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track.
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13Ballyminnion Boy44/100
Ballyminnion Boy is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has shown little in five starts so far with a string of modest efforts on his recent form. The trainer operates at a 3% strike rate from 31 runs at Roscommon and the horse drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous try.
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14Blackwater Soldier42/100
Blackwater Soldier is a fair sort who has been largely out of form in recent starts with a string of poor efforts. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in his only previous try at this distance while the application of first-time headgear is another unknown. The yard's record here is based on too few runs to judge.
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15Granda George42/100
Granda George is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has solid course connections but the trainer's modest 3% strike-rate from 31 runs at Roscommon is a clear negative. The 7 lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge while the horse drops back in trip today having failed to score in one previous try at this distance.
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16Trackman Tommy41/100
Trackman Tommy is a fair performer on his day with a solid recent win on his final start last season. He drops back in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance and he has never run on good ground so that side of things remains unproven. The trainer has a 4% strike rate from 25 runs at Roscommon while the jockey is 3% from 33 rides here.
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17Bruise Hill41/100
Bruise Hill is a fair performer who has shown some consistency lately with a placed effort at this trip from three attempts. Trainer has a modest 0% strike rate from 33 runs at Roscommon while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 141 rides here. Course connections give some encouragement but the small overall sample means going suitability remains unknown.
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18Max Time40/100
Max Time is a modest performer with a long record of poor results and no win or place from 39 starts this year. He has been well beaten on all four previous runs at this track and holds no better record on good ground or at this trip. The trainer's modest record at Roscommon adds little encouragement.
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19Amron Diamond36/100
Amron Diamond is a modest performer who has been out of the frame on his last three starts and was pulled up on his final run last season. He steps up in trip today having failed to win in three previous tries at this distance and is making his first appearance at Roscommon. The trainer has yet to strike at this track from 18 runners while the jockey's record here reads just 5% from 41 rides.
KTB verdict
Duce Bigalow is the KTB Selection. A fair performer in solid nick after a second and two wins from his last three starts, he drops back from three miles to a trip he has contested before and boasts a good record on good ground. Usually held up, he will need the race to unfold favourably given the uncontested lead likely to be enjoyed by Kilashee, but his recent form gives him every chance. The main dangers are Kilashee, who could prove hard to peg back from the front, and the consistent Jurality, while Go To The Moon and Let Him B are others to consider from the principals.
KTB Selection Duce Bigalow
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get an uncontested lead?
Kilashee, as the lone front-runner in a pace shape with high confidence that one clear leader will have little to pressure it.
How many wins has Kilashee recorded at Roscommon?
One win from four starts at this track.
What is Duce Bigalow's record on good ground?
One win from three runs on good (one placed).
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon among those with runners in this race?
John Patrick Ryan's jockey Kevin Healy has a 40% strike rate at Roscommon from five rides, though the trainer himself is 4% from 107 runs.
Has any horse in the field won over this exact distance before?
Let Him B has already won over this distance; Ardgillan won at this trip on his most recent outing; Move It On Over has already won over today's trip.
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