6:45 Newcastle (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over 7f at Newcastle on Standard ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers, several of whom have previous experience at the venue. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but largely unexciting contest, with Finn Ironside heading the figures on 62 and a cluster of others between 57 and 52. Dropping in class is a theme for the top five, and course records will be important on a surface that has suited several of these in the past.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is likely to be strong, and the race could collapse late. Finn Ironside and Spartan Fighter are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, while Why Because could also go forward from stall one. That early speed sets up a key question of whether the hold-up horses, including Surprised, Victory Sound and Age of Baroque, can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Finn Ironside KTB Selection62/100
Finn Ironside is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of his eight runs at Newcastle. Recent form has been patchy but he did land a similar race on his penultimate start and looks well placed from stall eight. The drop in class should help and his front-running style could be an asset if he can dictate a strong enough gallop that plays into the race shape. Trainer Ivan Furtado has a 10% strike rate at Newcastle from 357 runs while jockey Elle-May Croot, having her first ride here, boasts a 12% strike rate at the track from 51 rides. He has recorded two wins from 11 starts on standard ground and his overall profile makes him the one to beat.
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2Surprised57/100
Surprised is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and now makes a first appearance at Newcastle. He has won over today's trip but his sole run on standard ground brought no joy. His held-up style should see him come from off the pace in a race that is likely to be strongly run, which could play to his strengths if the leaders fold. Trainer Bryan Smart holds a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample of 532 runs. The yard's record and the horse's ability at this level keep him in the mix despite the lack of course form.
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3Spartan Fighter54/100
Spartan Fighter is a modest performer with a solid record here, winning six times from 34 runs at Newcastle. He has been in and out of form this year but the latest win came over this trip on standard ground and the figures still stack up at this level. As a confirmed front-runner with high confidence in that run-style he is likely to be up with the pace and could set the race up for a late closer or try to go all the way. Trainer Antony Brittain's modest 9% strike-rate from a huge sample at the track is offset by Cam Hardie's stronger record in the saddle. He has seven wins from 37 starts on standard going and remains a major player on his best days.
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4Victory Sound54/100
Victory Sound is a limited performer who has shown enough on this surface to win here over today's trip from a single start. He has placed on three of his seven runs on standard going and arrives in decent form having won and placed in his last three outings. His held-up style with high confidence fits the likely strong pace, allowing him to produce his effort late when it could count most. Trainer Mark Usher has a solid 24% strike rate at the track from 37 runs while jockey Connor Beasley knows the place well too. The combination of course-winning form and recent progress makes him a live danger.
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5Age of Baroque52/100
Age of Baroque is a modest performer who has been knocking on the door on AW this year without quite getting the job done. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip in the past and looks well suited by the return to this distance. A hold-up performer with high confidence in that run-style, he should be well positioned to strike if the race develops as the pace shape suggests. Trainer Jessica Macey has a solid 10% strike rate at Newcastle from 171 runs. Although the jockey is 0-8 here the horse's consistency at this level means he cannot be dismissed.
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6Luminous Warrior50/100
Luminous Warrior is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. He has never won on this surface from four attempts though and is making his first start at Newcastle. The trip looks about right having placed twice at 7f without winning.
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7Palmarian49/100
Palmarian is a limited performer who has been a regular at this level without winning for some time. He has run well enough on standard ground in the past and the drop back to 7f looks worth a try after his last run over a mile. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at Newcastle is offset by a solid A/E of 0.96, though his own record here is only one unplaced effort.
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8Why Because48/100
Why Because is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and looks no better than modest on AW. He has been beaten over 7f before without placing and the step up from 6f today asks a fresh question. Trainer's solid 10% strike rate at the track offers some hope but the horse's own record here is ordinary.
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9Just Queen High48/100
Just Queen High is a modest performer who has struggled this year and arrives with a string of poor efforts. She steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge at that trip previously, while first-time headgear is now reached for on a surface she has never tried. Trainer's modest record here adds little encouragement.
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10Secret Road45/100
Secret Road is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has won over this trip and on this surface, and he has also won at Newcastle itself from seven runs here. The yard's small sample at the track gives little guidance.
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11Cable Beach39/100
Cable Beach is a limited performer who has run eight times at Newcastle without winning or placing, finishing no better than fourth. He has shown some consistency of late with form figures of 4-3742 and has won at this trip, though only once from 13 starts on standard ground. Trainer has a solid 14% strike-rate here but the jockey is operating at just 2% from 91 rides.
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12Aurora's Doublesix30/100
Aurora's Doublesix is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact at this track, finishing no better than seventh in five runs here. He drops back to 7f today having been well held over longer trips recently, but the yard's poor 0% strike-rate from 72 runs at Newcastle offers little encouragement. Faye McManoman has a similarly modest record at the venue.
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13Sadiiki30/100
Sadiiki is a limited performer who has failed to win or place in seven runs at Newcastle and six on standard ground. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of a horse that has looked modest over 6f. Trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 61 runs at the track adds no encouragement.
KTB verdict
Finn Ironside is the KTB Selection. He has a solid record at Newcastle where he has won twice from eight starts, and his drop in class allied to a good draw in stall eight should allow his front-running style to be seen to best effect in a race with a strong pace likely. Recent form is patchy yet the penultimate success in similar company keeps him at the top of the pile. His main dangers are Spartan Fighter, who also likes to lead and boasts six course wins, and Victory Sound, who won here on his only start at the track and arrives in good heart from a hold-up position that could be ideally suited if the front-runners go too hard.
KTB Selection Finn Ironside
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Finn Ironside | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Surprised | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Spartan Fighter | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Victory Sound | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Age of Baroque | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Luminous Warrior | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Palmarian | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Why Because | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Just Queen High | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Secret Road | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Cable Beach | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Aurora's Doublesix | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| Sadiiki | 80/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Finn Ironside, Spartan Fighter and Why Because are all front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace likely from two or more habitual front-runners could cause the leaders to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
How many course wins does Spartan Fighter have at Newcastle?
Spartan Fighter has won six times from 34 runs at Newcastle.
What is Victory Sound's record at this track?
Victory Sound has won here from a single start over today's trip.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Just Queen High is wearing first-time headgear.
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