7:30 Dundalk (AW)
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Star Appeal Stakes brings together an intriguing field of 11 two-year-olds for this Listed contest over 7f on the standard surface at Dundalk. With most of the runners unproven on the all-weather and several making their first attempt at the trip, the KTB Fit ratings point to a tight contest at the top, headed by two principals rated at 61. The race features a mix of progressive types stepping up in class and others with solid placed form at this level, all set against a pace shape that favours the one clear leader.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late on. Salt Lake and Equus Victor both have front-running tendencies and could contest the early pace, while Zoar is likely to race prominently from draw six. Most of the field, including the two joint-top-rated principals Dee's Funny Girl and South Dakota, are expected to settle further back in mid-division or held up, making the key question whether any of the closers can bridge the gap to an uncontested leader on this surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dee's Funny Girl KTB Selection61/100
Dee's Funny Girl arrives with a KTB Fit of 61 and is the selection. A useful filly, she has shown strong form across her four starts this season, registering a win and two placed efforts. She has already tackled this trip without success and the small sample leaves her ideal surface preference unclear, with no previous runs on standard going. The Aidan O'Brien yard holds a solid 19% strike rate at Dundalk from 141 runs while jockey Oisin Orr operates at an 11% rate from 557 rides at the track. Typically settling in mid-division, she is drawn in stall nine in a race where the uncontested lead could make things tough for those coming from behind.
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2South Dakota61/100
South Dakota also carries a KTB Fit of 61 and is rated just a pound behind the selection on official figures. A useful performer, he has been consistent, finishing in the first four on four of his five starts and winning a maiden at this trip. He drops back from 7½f today after being narrowly touched off over that distance last time. The Aidan O'Brien stable posts a solid 23% strike rate at Dundalk from a large sample of 937 runs, while jockey W M Lordan has an 11% record from over 2000 rides at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to overcome the pace shape that is likely to see an uncontested leader.
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3Nicely59/100
Nicely is rated 59 on the KTB Fit scale and brings a solid record of 21614 into this Listed event. A useful performer who has already shown his ability at this level, he steps up to 7f for the first time today having last run over 6f, which poses a fresh question. The Kevin Philippart de Foy yard has no specific Dundalk record but shows 15% from 254 runs overall, while jockey Rowan Scott boasts a strong 40% strike rate at the track from five rides. Usually held up, he will be another looking to close late against what is expected to be an uncontested lead.
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4One Number53/100
One Number is next on the KTB Fit at 53 and is a useful performer who has already shown his best on this surface with a win from a single run on standard going. He is stepping up in class and drops back from a mile to 7f, which asks a fresh question, while his recent form has been up and down. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard holds a solid 15% strike rate at Dundalk from 1612 runs and jockey J M Sheridan operates at 6% from a large sample. Usually held up, he will need to produce his best effort late in a race where the pace shape may not play to his strengths.
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5Duidin52/100
Duidin is rated 52 on the KTB Fit and is a fair 2-year-old who has improved with each run, now arriving on the back of two quick wins, the latest over this exact 7f trip on standard ground. He is stepping up in class but stall one looks ideal. The Donnacha Aidan O'Brien yard posts a solid 19% strike rate at Dundalk from 141 runs, though jockey Nathan Crosse is operating below his usual level with a 5% strike rate from 671 rides at the track. Usually held up, he has the benefit of proven ability on the surface and at the trip.
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6Aachen52/100
Aachen showed fair form when third on debut over 1m here, suggesting he has some ability. He now drops back to 7f for the first time which asks a fresh question, though he has already placed on standard ground. Aidan O'Brien has a 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 937 runs while Declan McDonogh operates at 11% from 1924 rides at the track.
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7Joga Bonito51/100
Joga Bonito is a useful performer who has shown consistent form, winning once and placing three times from five starts. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip earlier in the campaign, though the going remains an unknown with only a small sample. Trainer P Twomey records a solid 25% strike rate at Dundalk while jockey W J Lee operates at 10%.
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8Fighting Tears49/100
Fighting Tears is lightly raced with just two runs this year and recent form figures of 16. The step up from 6f to 7f is an unknown that asks a fresh question. Trainer A Oliver holds a solid 12% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample while jockey G F Carroll operates at 7%.
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9Salt Lake49/100
Salt Lake has shown promise in two starts, finishing second last time after winning on debut. He steps up to 7f today having already placed at the trip, though the small sample means his effectiveness at the distance and on standard going remains unproven. The trainer holds a solid 23% strike rate at Dundalk while the jockey operates at a 9% rate there.
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10Equus Victor47/100
Equus Victor is a useful 2-year-old who showed clear improvement when winning a 7f maiden last time and has already won at today's trip from his one attempt. He was below that level when fourth on his only previous run at Dundalk though that run still counts as solid placed form at this track. The trainer holds a respectable 15% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 10%.
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11Zoar46/100
Zoar is a fair performer who has shown useful early speed, winning a maiden before finishing second in a Listed race. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question at this stage. Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has a solid 19% strike rate at Dundalk while jockey Gavin Ryan operates at 9%.
KTB verdict
Dee's Funny Girl is the KTB Selection. She is a useful filly with strong form including a win and two placed efforts from just four starts, and she represents a yard with a solid record at Dundalk. The selection can settle in mid-division and has the class to cope in this Listed race, though the uncontested lead predicted by the pace shape will not make life easy for her. South Dakota looks the main danger as another useful and consistent performer from the same powerful yard, while Nicely, One Number and Duidin are the other principals who can feature if the race sets up in their favour.
KTB Selection Dee's Funny Girl
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Dee's Funny Girl | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| South Dakota | 7/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Nicely | 18/1 | BetTom |
| One Number | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Duidin | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Aachen | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Joga Bonito | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Fighting Tears | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Salt Lake | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Equus Victor | 18/1 | BetTom |
| Zoar | 22/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over this exact 7f trip on standard ground?
Duidin has won over this exact 7f trip on standard ground and is proven on the surface.
What is the expected pace shape and how might it affect the race?
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner with little pressure and an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Dundalk in this field?
Rowan Scott has a 40% strike rate at Dundalk from five rides.
How many of the principals are stepping up in class?
Two of the principals, One Number and Duidin, are stepping up in class.
Which horses have previous experience of racing at Dundalk?
Aachen has placed here on his only start, while Equus Victor has run once at the track when fourth.
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