5:40 Redcar
A competitive Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Redcar on good ground brings together a field of 13 sprinters, several with proven ability at this distance. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Curious Rover on 60, with four others within five points, underlining how little separates the principals on current form and track considerations. Recent form across the field is mixed, but course experience, draw and proven effectiveness on good ground will all play their part in what looks an open affair.
How the race shapes up
With three confirmed front-runners in Curious Rover, Dolos Dream and Accrual, plus Sugar Hill Babe and Kinetic Force also inclined to race prominently, a strong pace is anticipated. The early fractions could be brisk, increasing the chance of the leaders folding late in the race. That sets up a race that could ultimately play into the hands of those held up towards the rear, with the key question being whether any of the pace-setters can sustain their effort or if the hold-up performers will be able to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Curious Rover KTB Selection60/100
Curious Rover is a fair performer who has won over this trip and showed his liking for Redcar when successful on his only previous visit here. He has been in and out of form this year with a recent win sandwiched between some lesser efforts and is drawn widest of all today. The trainer holds a solid record at this track while the jockey is 0 from 4 here from a small sample. As a habitual front-runner he is sure to be prominent early in what is likely to be a strongly-run race, and his course win offers hope he can overcome the wide draw. With the KTB Fit score of 60 he tops the ratings and is taken to come out on top.
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2Dolos Dream59/100
Dolos Dream is a fair performer who has shown decent consistency, winning twice and placing on three other starts from seven runs. He has already won on good ground and at this trip, while the Redcar draw is wide but not a total barrier given the horse's proven speed. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here from a big sample. As a front-runner with high confidence in that run-style he is likely to be up with the pace in what is forecast to be a strong early gallop. Dropping in class looks a positive and with a KTB Fit of 59 he is firmly in the mix.
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3Ziggy's Triton58/100
Ziggy's Triton is a fair performer who has won six times over this trip from 31 starts. He has shown little at Redcar in one previous run and his recent form has been patchy with just one win in the last year. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate here from a large sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the anticipated strong pace which could collapse in the closing stages. With a KTB Fit of 58 and an inside draw in stall 2 he is one of the more interesting hold-up types in the field.
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4Mo of Cairo55/100
Mo of Cairo is a fair 3-year-old with a solid win at today's trip from four attempts and a placed effort on good ground from five starts. He has been reasonably consistent without progressing much lately, finishing no better than fifth in his last four runs. The Kevin Ryan yard posts a 12% strike rate at Redcar from a big sample while Kevin Stott takes the ride. His held-up run-style fits the shape of a race likely to be strongly run, and the low draw in stall 3 could prove an advantage if he can time his challenge. Rated 55 on KTB Fit he remains a contender.
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5Accrual54/100
Accrual is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 21 attempts and shows a solid record on good ground with three wins and five places from seven starts. Recent form of 513751 confirms he remains competitive at this level. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 467 runs at Redcar is a negative on his first visit here. Another who tends to make the running or race prominently, he will be in the thick of the strong early pace. With a KTB Fit of 54 he cannot be ruled out but the yard's record at the track tempers enthusiasm.
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6Our Absent Friends53/100
Our Absent Friends is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. Recent form is mixed but he has been competitive at this level and the trainer maintains a solid 25% strike rate here. Ground is no problem on his figures though he is getting on a bit now with 50 runs on the clock.
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7Sugar Hill Babe53/100
Sugar Hill Babe is a fair mare who has been in decent form this year with two wins from her last five starts. She has placed here before without winning and acts on good ground though her record on it is modest overall. The trainer has a poor strike-rate at Redcar and this looks a stiff task from stall 1.
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8Angel Numbers48/100
Angel Numbers is a fair performer who has won three times over this trip but looks to have gone off the boil lately with three poor efforts after a mid-summer purple patch. The yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Redcar from a large sample is another negative. Good ground clearly suits and the 3lb claimer helps.
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9Al Hussar47/100
Al Hussar is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 30 starts yet looks vulnerable dropping back from 6f today. He has shown ordinary form at Redcar in two runs and his trainer's 8 percent strike rate from 130 attempts at the track offers little encouragement. The yard's recent form and the horse's last six runs of 164750 suggest he will need to improve to be competitive from stall 9.
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10Kinetic Force47/100
Kinetic Force is a fair performer who has shown consistency this year with a win and two placings from his last six starts. He has course experience after finishing third here on his only visit and has won once from three starts at this trip, though he is only 1 from 7 on good ground. The yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Redcar from a large sample adds a note of caution.
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11Tees Spirit42/100
Tees Spirit is a fair 8-year-old with a solid record on good ground, including eight wins from 22 starts, and he has won at this trip. He ran poorly on his only previous visit to Redcar though, and his recent form of 0800-9 suggests he is struggling to recapture his best. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at the track adds little confidence.
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12Emperor Caradoc42/100
Emperor Caradoc is a modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning his only visit to Redcar. He has been out of form for much of this year with a string of modest efforts and has never won on good ground despite several placed efforts. Trainer's modest strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
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13Sports Coach39/100
Sports Coach is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third and fourth from two runs. He drops back to his winning trip today but has struggled on good ground with no placed efforts from six attempts. The yard's modest record here adds a note of caution.
KTB verdict
Curious Rover is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with a win over the trip and a course success on his only previous visit to Redcar, he has the highest KTB Fit rating and a trainer with a solid record at the track. As a front-runner he will set the pace in what is expected to be a strongly-run race, and his proven liking for the venue gives him every chance of overcoming the wide draw. The main dangers are Dolos Dream, who brings strong early pace and class-dropping potential, and the hold-up performers Ziggy's Triton and Mo of Cairo who could be ideally suited if the leaders go too hard.
KTB Selection Curious Rover
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Curious Rover, Dolos Dream, Accrual, Sugar Hill Babe and Kinetic Force are all inclined to race prominently or make the running.
How does the strong pace shape affect the race?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners and could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses.
Which horses have course-and-distance form at Redcar?
Curious Rover has won here over this trip from one visit, while Our Absent Friends and Emperor Caradoc have also won at the track.
What are the best trainer records at Redcar among the runners?
Tristan Davidson has a 25% strike rate at Redcar, Katie Scott 14% with an A/E of 1.3, and David O'Meara 15% with an A/E of 1.04 from a large sample.
Which horses have the strongest records on good ground?
Accrual has three wins and five places from seven starts on good, Tees Spirit has eight wins from 22 starts on good, and Dolos Dream has won on good ground.
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