3:35 Ascot
The Betmgm Challenge Cup is a competitive Class 2 Heritage Handicap over seven furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring an 18-runner field where most runners are rated in the 90s to low 100s. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Hickory heading the list on 68, closely followed by The Fingal Raven (66), Poet Master (65), Golden Mind (61) and Desert Shadow (61). Several principals bring strong course form or recent wins, but the overall picture is one of a race where proven Ascot performers and those suited by the likely pace shape hold the edge.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead according to the pace shape, the race is set up to favour those who can settle and produce a late burst. The majority of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace, which could leave the front-runner with an easy time up front. The key question is whether any closer can bridge the gap on a track where an uncontested lead can prove hard to peg back, particularly on good to firm ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hickory KTB Selection68/100
Hickory is a useful performer with an excellent record at this venue, having won four times from 13 runs at Ascot and five times over today's 7f trip. His recent form of 606151 shows a mixed bag with two wins interspersed by three lesser efforts, but he drops back from a mile last time which should suit. The Jamie Osborne yard boasts a 13% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample with an A/E of 1.71, though the trainer and jockey combination stands at 0/7. P J McDonald has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.9. Hickory acts on good to firm, recording two wins from 11 starts, and is held up to produce his effort late. He is the KTB Selection.
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2The Fingal Raven66/100
The Fingal Raven is a useful performer who has shown mixed results in three runs at Ascot, with a best of second but also two poor efforts. He has placed six times from 12 starts on good to firm without winning and has one win from 14 attempts at this trip, though his recent form of 939273 underlines his inconsistency. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to sharpen him up. The Jamie Osborne stable has a 13% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.71 from 251 runs, while William Carver posts a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.54 from 25 rides. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time.
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3Poet Master65/100
Poet Master is a smart performer who has won five times over this trip from 15 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having been placed twice this year. This will be his first run at Ascot, which is neutral given K R Burke's solid 9% strike rate at the track from 341 runs and Clifford Lee's 8% strike rate from 103 rides. He is dropping in class, which could help, though he has only one previous run on good to firm ground, leaving that aspect as something of an unknown. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, he will need to produce his effort late against a likely uncontested leader. His official rating of 105 makes him the highest-rated in the field.
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4Golden Mind61/100
Golden Mind is a useful performer who has run ten times at Ascot without winning and has struggled in most of those efforts, with placed form the best he has managed. He steps up to 7f today having won at the trip in the past, though his recent form of 480000 is poor. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard has a 7% strike rate at Ascot from 14 runs with an A/E of 1.52, while apprentice Warren Fentiman is 0-3 at the track. He acts on good to firm with one win from nine starts and is usually held up to produce his effort late. The wide draw is not a factor given his run style.
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5Desert Shadow61/100
Desert Shadow is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts. He has already won twice on good to firm and twice at this trip, so the conditions look suitable. This is his first run at Ascot for a Saeed bin Suroor yard that has a 15% strike rate here from a large sample of 633 runs, while Kieran Shoemark posts a 9% strike rate at the track from 254 rides. He is stepping up in class but is usually held up with high confidence and will be aiming to come from off the pace. His recent form of 052112 gives him strong claims on paper.
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6Five Ways60/100
Five Ways is a useful performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts from his recent figures of 504609. First time at Ascot and still unproven at the trip add fresh questions while the Andrew Balding yard and Jason Watson both sit on a 9% strike rate here. Going form reads okay with a win and a place from five runs on good to firm and he is held up.
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7Thunder Call60/100
Thunder Call is a useful performer who has won here once from two runs and also has a win at this trip. Recent form of 11321 shows strong consistency at a decent level and the good-to-firm ground looks fine. William Haggas has a solid 13% strike rate at Ascot while Harry Davies is operating at 8%. He is held up and won at the track previously.
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8Machadadorp59/100
Machadadorp is a useful performer who has won three of his four starts at this trip and looks well suited by today's distance again. He has already shown he handles good to firm ground and has strong recent form of 611261, though his only visit to Ascot resulted in a midfield finish. The Andrew Balding yard's modest strike rate here is offset by Callum Hutchinson's solid record at the track and he is held up.
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9Moonfall57/100
Moonfall is a useful performer who has already won over this course and trip. Recent form is solid with two seconds and a win from his last four starts though he is now dropping back from a mile. George Boughey's modest 7% strike rate at Ascot is offset by Billy Loughnane's solid 10% record here and he is held up.
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10Great Acclaim56/100
Great Acclaim is a useful performer who has shown up well at this track on his better days, finishing placed on two of his last four visits to Ascot. He has won on good to firm and at this trip, though his recent form of 323897 has been patchy and he is drawn wide today. The Eve Johnson Houghton yard holds a solid record here while the 7 lb claimer Oliver Carmichael is aboard and he is held up.
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11Two Tribes56/100
Two Tribes is a useful performer who has won once from nine starts over this trip and has placed six times from 14 runs on good to firm ground. He has also won once from nine starts at Ascot. Richard Spencer operates at a 5% strike rate from 100 runs here while Toby Moore has limited experience at the track and he is held up.
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12Arctic Dawn52/100
Arctic Dawn is a useful performer who has won five times at this trip and shown he handles good to firm ground. He has run twice at Ascot without placing and the Daniel and Claire Kubler yard's record here is poor at 2% from 44 runs. Callum Shepherd's 6% strike rate from 118 rides at the track adds little encouragement from the wide draw and he is held up.
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13Aalto50/100
Aalto is a useful performer who has been knocking at the door this season with three seconds and two thirds from his last six starts. He has placed twice from six runs at Ascot and holds solid form on good to firm, though his record at this track also includes some hefty defeats. Ian Williams posts a 9% strike-rate here from a big sample while Lewis Edmunds is operating at 6% and he steps up in class while being held up.
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14Pellitory50/100
Pellitory is a useful performer on his day with a solid recent record that includes two wins and a third from his last four starts. He has won at this trip in the past but steps back up in distance today having raced mainly over 6f of late, while his record on good to firm is only fair with one placing from seven runs. He has been below form in three previous runs at Ascot and David O'Meara's modest 4% strike rate here adds further caution. He is held up.
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15River King49/100
River King is a useful performer who has run well at this track before without quite landing a big one. He drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile, a trip at which he has placed once in three attempts, and he acts on good to firm ground with two wins from four starts. Richard Hannon and Sean Levey both have modest records at Ascot and he is the only front-runner in the field.
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16Realign47/100
Realign is a useful performer who has won twice on good to firm but has been below form in both starts at this track. He steps up from 6f today having been placed once at 7f, which looks a fair question given his recent efforts of 91800. William Haggas holds a solid 13% strike rate here while Pat Dobbs is operating at 7% and he is held up.
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17Mezcala47/100
Mezcala is a useful performer who has won once from two starts at this track and also has a win over today's 7f trip. He drops back from a mile last time having shown mixed form this year with two wins and two poor efforts among his last five runs. Jack Channon's modest 5% strike rate at Ascot and George Bass's 0% from 12 rides here add some negatives and he is held up.
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18Hawksbill43/100
Hawksbill is a useful performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts. He has a poor record at Ascot and both Richard Spencer and George Wood have modest strike rates here. He drops back to a trip where he has placed before though his record on good to firm is only average and he is held up.
KTB verdict
Hickory stands out as the KTB Selection with his proven record at Ascot, where he has won four times from 13 starts, allied to five wins at this trip. The eight-year-old's ability to produce late efforts from a held-up position fits the shape of a race where a lone leader is expected to get an easy lead that could be difficult for closers to overcome. His recent mixed form is not ideal but the strong trainer record at the track and suitability of conditions give him the best chance. The main dangers are The Fingal Raven, who is first-time hooded and has placed at the course, and Poet Master, who brings smart form and is dropping in class despite the going question. Desert Shadow's recent wins also make him a live contender if he handles Ascot.
KTB Selection Hickory
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best Ascot record among the principals?
Hickory, who has won four times from 13 runs at the track.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All five principals are held-up types.
Which horse is the only front-runner in the entire field?
River King.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
The Fingal Raven.
Which horse has the highest official rating in the race?
Poet Master on 105.
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