2:00 Roscommon
A 16-runner Guinness Handicap over 7f111y on soft ground at Roscommon promises a competitive midweek contest. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals separated by only four points, indicating a race where class, course knowledge and how the strong pace unfolds will decide matters. Most of the field are modest performers on official ratings between 61 and 79, and several hold previous form at the track, yet the overall standard remains modest.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive and a strong gallop is anticipated. Save The Sixes and Minaun View are both likely to contest the lead early from their low draws, while Girl Bear may also push on from stall 15. This setup should ensure the race collapses late and play into the hands of hold-up performers, several of whom are drawn wide or have a track record of producing their effort from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Selective Power58/100
Selective Power is a modest performer who has won once from only one run at this track. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has won over five times from 29 starts and handles soft ground with a win and two places from four runs. The seven-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which looks ideal given the expected strong pace. Trainer Thomas Coyle has a 10% strike rate at Roscommon with a positive A/E of 1.19 from 31 runs, while jockey James Ryan posts a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.57 from 67 rides here. His recent form reads 494451 and he carries an official rating of 65 from draw 3.
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2Breaking Dawn KTB Selection58/100
Breaking Dawn is a fair performer who has run creditably over this trip before but was well held on both starts this season. The three-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence, which should suit the anticipated strong pace that could collapse in the closing stages. He is drawn widest of all in stall 16, which is far from ideal on a stiff track. Trainer M D O'Callaghan has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 1.37 from 50 runs, and jockey Colin Keane holds a 17% strike rate with an A/E of 0.88 from 301 rides at the venue. His recent form is 44-100 and he is rated 77.
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3Java Wood57/100
Java Wood is a modest performer who has been in and out this year with a recent win at this trip mixed in. He drops back from 1m1½f having already shown he can win over today's distance on three occasions from seven attempts. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, though with only medium confidence in that assessment. He has had only one run on soft ground so far and this is his first visit to Roscommon. Trainer K Smith has no record at the track from five runs overall, while jockey Reese Holohan has a 10% strike rate and A/E of 1.35 from 10 rides here. Java Wood's recent form reads 307148 and he is rated 72 from draw 11.
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4Gypsy Queen56/100
Gypsy Queen is a fair maiden who showed her best form when winning a 7f maiden at Gowran last summer but has been well below that level on her only start this year. She steps up in trip for the first time today and the headgear is also a first-time addition. The four-year-old is held up, usually producing her effort late with medium confidence. Trainer W McCreery has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 1.21 from 120 runs, and jockey W J Lee posts an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.89 from 332 rides at the track. She has had two runs on soft without winning or placing, carries an official rating of 76 from draw 9, and her recent form is 518-0.
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5La La Lucrative54/100
La La Lucrative is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of three starts at Roscommon. He steps up in trip today having won three times at this distance in the past, though his recent form has been mixed and he has yet to score on soft ground despite placing twice from seven attempts. The five-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late with high confidence. Trainer Matthew J Smith has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.26 from 43 runs, while jockey Robbie Colgan's record is more modest at 4% with an A/E of 0.74 from 226 rides. His recent form reads 181432, he is rated 67 from draw 2, and his course-and-distance note is positive.
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6Save The Sixes52/100
Save The Sixes is a fair performer who won on debut over this trip at this track and has since shown mixed form over longer distances. He drops back to 7½f which looks more suitable on the balance of his three runs, though he has had no runs on soft ground and remains unproven. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and won here on his only previous visit. Trainer Mrs J Harrington and jockey Shane Foley both have solid records at Roscommon.
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7Final Boss51/100
Final Boss is a modest performer who has failed to land a blow in three starts this season and looks up against it from a wide draw in stall 13. He steps back to a distance he has tried three times without success and his small-sample going record on soft remains an unknown. Trainer Matthew J Smith has a solid 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 43 runs while jockey Leigh Roche shows an 8% strike rate from 153 rides here. His recent form is 5-0607 and he is rated 63.
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8Minaun View50/100
Minaun View is a modest performer with a mixed record of late, winning once and placing twice from his last six starts. He has run just once at Roscommon, finishing fifth, while the yard posts a solid 10% strike rate here from a big sample. The four-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though the jockey is still seeking his first success from 20 rides at the track. He has placed once from three starts on soft.
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9Contrary To Law49/100
Contrary To Law is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year and was only sixth here on his sole previous visit to Roscommon. He steps up in trip today having won once at this distance from five attempts, though his recent efforts over six furlongs have been ordinary. Trainer J P Murtagh and jockey Ben Coen both hold solid records at the track. He has had one run on soft without winning or placing and is rated 74 from draw 8.
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10Nakamura48/100
Nakamura is a fair performer who has been placed on this track and on soft ground. He steps up in trip today having last run over 6f and is 1 from 4 at this distance without winning. Trainer J P Murtagh has a solid 14% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 4% from a huge number of rides. The three-year-old has placed once from four starts on soft and finished third here on his only previous visit. His recent form is 782070.
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11Earls47/100
Earls is a modest performer who has won three times at this track from seven runs and also has a solid record on soft ground with three wins from eleven starts. He drops back from 1m1f to a trip he has won at six times from 37 attempts though his recent form has been patchy with a string of lesser efforts after some placed runs earlier this year. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate here from 197 runs while the jockey is operating at just 3% from 29 rides. The nine-year-old is rated 72.
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12She's Too Kool47/100
She's Too Kool is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form that includes a win and a third from her last three starts. She steps up in trip today having already won over this distance once from six attempts though she has shown little on soft ground from a single run. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at Roscommon while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. The three-year-old is rated 79.
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13Mercurial45/100
Mercurial is a modest performer with a solid course record here, finishing placed on three of his five visits including two seconds last season. He has been competitive on soft ground without winning and steps up in trip today having placed at this distance in the past. Trainer John J Nallen has a fair 14% strike-rate at Roscommon but the jockey is still seeking his first winner from seven rides at the track. The seven-year-old is rated 69.
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14Girl Bear39/100
Girl Bear is a modest filly who has shown occasional spark but remains winless after seven starts. She placed over this trip on her penultimate run and finished a solid third here last time, though the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal. Trainer Jack Foley has only three runs at Roscommon so far while the jockey's modest 5% strike rate from 74 rides at the track adds little confidence. She has had one run on soft without placing.
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15Tyraxes37/100
Tyraxes is a modest performer who has been out of form for a while and arrives here on the back of a string of ordinary efforts. He drops back in trip having been placed once at this distance without winning and makes his first appearance at the track. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 211 runs at Roscommon while the horse remains unproven on soft ground. The four-year-old is rated 61.
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16Solomon34/100
Solomon is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when sixth of 14 last time. He drops back in trip to a distance at which he has won once from five attempts, though his only run here was a poor one and he has failed to place in three starts on soft ground. The trainer is 0-8 at the track while the jockey is 0-16. The five-year-old is rated 65 from draw 14.
KTB verdict
Breaking Dawn is the KTB Selection. He is a fair performer who has run creditably over this trip before, is held up in a race with a strong pace likely to collapse late, and benefits from a trainer and jockey who both have solid records at Roscommon. His wide draw is a clear negative on a stiff track but the overall pace setup should play to his strengths as a late runner. The main dangers are Selective Power, who has won from his only previous run here and drops to a trip he knows well, and La La Lucrative, who boasts a strong course record with two wins from three starts at Roscommon. Java Wood and Gypsy Queen add further depth in a race where several hold-up types could be involved late.
KTB Selection Breaking Dawn
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Roscommon racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Save The Sixes, Minaun View and Girl Bear are the front-runners or pace-setters in the field.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which runners have previous winning form at Roscommon?
Selective Power, Save The Sixes, La La Lucrative and Earls have all won at the track.
Who has the best trainer strike-rate at the course among the principals?
M D O'Callaghan has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 1.37 from 50 runs.
Which horse is making its first visit to Roscommon?
Java Wood is having his first visit to Roscommon.
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