3:12 Bath
A field of 13 modest performers line up for this Class 5 handicap over 5f160y on heavy ground at Bath. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Mumayaz and Maharajas Express sharing the highest rating of 61 while the next three principals sit between 60 and 55. Official ratings range from 61 to 75 and several runners enter with placed efforts or recent wins, yet the heavy surface and stiff-looking pace combine to pose genuine questions for most of the field.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared the pace shape is strong and confidence in that assessment is high. Kiss And Run is likely to take them along from a wide draw, with several prominent racers including Maharajas Express, Thunderous Love, Over Spiced, Musical Soldier and Gelato all expected to race handily. The key question is whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages on this heavy ground, a scenario that would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Mumayaz and the pair of 3yos drawn low, Pedros Dream and Born Slippy.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mumayaz KTB Selection61/100
Mumayaz is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Bath and holds a solid 5-27 record at today's trip. The yard's 11% strike rate at the track from 886 runs is above their overall figure. He is completely unproven on heavy ground and that remains the big question today. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that style could be well suited if the strong pace collapses late on this surface. The 7-year-old carries an official rating of 69 having shown form of 356751 most recently. Tony Carroll and William Carson combine with a modest 9% record from 851 rides together.
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2Maharajas Express61/100
Maharajas Express is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at Bath. He steps up to 5¾f today having been placed but not won at the trip, and his heavy-ground record reads a win and a place from three starts. Ian Williams has a 13% strike rate here from 168 runs, in line with his overall figure. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn next to the selection in stall 7. The 6-year-old arrives in decent form with figures of 182218 and drops in class from an official rating of 72. Harry Davies takes the ride.
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3Thunderous Love60/100
Thunderous Love is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, posting recent form of 229485 from an official rating of 61. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate at Bath from 361 runs, which is above their 8% at other tracks, while the 5lb claimer Olivia Tubb takes the ride. Has won six times at this trip from 28 attempts and is placed once from three starts on heavy ground. Usually races handily on or close to the lead from stall 4. He steps up in class today but looks sure to give his running if the ground does not prove too testing.
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4Kiss And Run56/100
Kiss And Run is a modest performer who has won once from ten starts at Bath and is 1 from 22 at today's trip. He has placed three times from four runs on heavy ground without winning, and his recent form of 531676 shows a mix of competitiveness and inconsistency. Trainer at Bath has a 7% strike rate from 30 runs, in line with their record elsewhere. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and is therefore likely to be prominent in what is expected to be a strong gallop. The 5-year-old carries an official rating of 67 and Kieran O'Neill is in the saddle.
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5Over Spiced55/100
Over Spiced is a modest performer who has won twice from six runs at Bath and arrives in solid recent form with a second and two wins from his last six starts. He steps up to 5¾f for the first time today having been placed but not won at the trip before, while he has failed to place in two runs on heavy ground. Trainer records a 9% strike rate here from 317 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, and the 3lb claimer Ashley Lewis is on board from stall 3 of 13. Usually races handily on or close to the lead. The 4-year-old is rated 68 on official figures.
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6Musical Soldier53/100
Musical Soldier is a modest performer with a solid recent record of five seconds and two wins from his last seven starts. He drops back to his more familiar 5¾f trip today but is unproven on heavy ground and was well held on his only previous run at Bath. The trainer has a 17% strike rate here from 41 runs, in line with his record elsewhere.
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7Nogo's Dream52/100
Nogo's Dream is a modest performer with a solid recent record of six straight places from his last eight starts. He steps up from 5f to 5¾f today where he has been placed without winning, and he has only one run on heavy ground which produced no win or place. Trainer at Bath has a 13% strike rate from 164 runs in line with his record elsewhere.
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8Pedros Dream50/100
Pedros Dream is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on his last two starts including when second over course and distance on his penultimate run. He steps up in trip again today having been well held when tried at this range previously while the yard's 11% strike rate at Bath from 886 runs is above their 9% at other tracks. Half-brother to Holbache (11 wins from 56 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.
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9Burdett Estate48/100
Burdett Estate is a fair 3 year old who showed useful promise when winning on debut last season but has been well held in four subsequent runs. He drops back sharply in trip today having last run over a mile, which poses a fresh question, while he is drawn widest of all in stall 13 of 13. The trainer has only four runs at Bath which is too small a sample to judge. Half-brother to Pop Dancer (11 wins from 73 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 5 of them winners.
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10Punchbowl Flyer45/100
Punchbowl Flyer is a modest performer who has won three times at today's trip but arrives in modest form having been well held on his last three starts. He has shown little at this track in two previous runs and is drawn widest of all in a big field. The trainer's 7% strike rate at Bath is in line with his record elsewhere while the 5lb claimer takes the ride.
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11Perfect Location43/100
Perfect Location is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip from ten attempts. He makes his first appearance at Bath today and has no experience of heavy ground. Trainer's 4% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere.
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12Born Slippy42/100
Born Slippy is a modest performer who has won once over today's trip from nine attempts. He makes his first appearance at Bath with no prior course form to call on and remains unproven on heavy ground having never run on it. Trainer at Bath has an 11% strike rate from 18 runs.
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13Gelato41/100
Gelato is a modest performer who has been in and out this year. He has run only once at Bath and once on heavy ground with no success on either, while dropping back to a trip at which he is also yet to place. Trainer Adrian Wintle has a 14% strike rate at Bath from 42 wins in 292 runs, above his 7% at other courses.
KTB verdict
Mumayaz is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a winning record at the course and a solid strike rate at the trip, he is expected to come from off the pace in a race where the strong gallop may collapse late on heavy ground. The yard's above-average strike rate at Bath adds to the appeal even though the surface remains a complete unknown. Main dangers are Maharajas Express, who has form on heavy and is effective at the track, and Thunderous Love, whose consistency and placed heavy-ground form make him a solid each-way contender. Kiss And Run and Over Spiced are others who can feature if the prominent runners get their own way up front.
KTB Selection Mumayaz
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Mumayaz | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Maharajas Express | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Thunderous Love | 8/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Kiss And Run | 6/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Over Spiced | 17/2 | Midnite, 12:03am |
| Musical Soldier | 8/1 | Midnite, 12:03am |
| Nogo's Dream | 6/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Pedros Dream | 11/4 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Burdett Estate | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Punchbowl Flyer | 25/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Perfect Location | 25/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Born Slippy | 35/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Gelato | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:12 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Bath racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent record at Bath?
Mumayaz has won once from three runs at Bath while Maharajas Express and Over Spiced have each won once from four and six starts respectively.
Who is most proven on heavy ground in the field?
Kiss And Run has placed three times from four runs on heavy ground, while Maharajas Express has a win and a place from three starts on the surface.
How many habitual front-runners are there and what does that mean for the race?
There are two or more habitual front-runners which makes the pace shape strong with a high level of confidence, and this could collapse late favouring hold-up horses.
Which 3-year-olds have family connections worth noting?
Pedros Dream is a half-brother to Holbache (11 wins from 56 runs) and Burdett Estate is a half-brother to Pop Dancer (11 wins from 73 runs).
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath among those with meaningful data?
Ollie Sangster has a 17% strike rate at Bath from 41 runs while Adrian Wintle has a 14% strike rate from 292 runs.
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