Nathan Alison
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 60 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.13). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (53 rides).
Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.9% (n=53, Fair A/E 1.18). Jim Boyle supplied 33% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (17.7%, n=79) and in Class 4 (16.4%, n=67). The record read poorly on Good going — 5.1% over 79 rides, 4.7pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fired May–Jul.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2008→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 553 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 553 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 October 2008 to 15 December 2017.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Nathan Alison's strike rate?
- Nathan Alison has won 54 of 553 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Nathan Alison do best at?
- Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 11 wins from 107 rides (10.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Nathan Alison ride most for?
- Jim Boyle, with 185 rides since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (10.3%).
- What is Nathan Alison's Fair A/E?
- 1.13, from 550 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.