Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 6.3%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−3.9
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 2.03 · £1 +3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%+2.4
n=48 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −26.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 60% vs 3.9% · n=43
With claiming riders up6.3% vs 3.9% · n=48
On Standard (AW) going3.7% vs 3.9% · n=54 · A/E 0.80
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat7134.2%−49.00
Hurdle400%−4.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)5423.7%−42.00
Good to Firm8112.5%+2.00
Good500%−5.00
Soft500%−5.00
Good to Soft400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)2214.5%−17.00
Wolverhampton (AW)1000%−10.00
Kempton (AW)900%−9.00
Chelmsford City (AW)7114.3%+0.00
Southwell (AW)600%−6.00
Windsor6116.7%+4.00
Ffos Las200%−2.00
Ascot200%−2.00
Fontwell200%−2.00
Newbury200%−2.00
Taunton100%−1.00
Brighton100%−1.00
York100%−1.00
Salisbury100%−1.00
Bath100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 64300%−43.00
Class 516212.5%−1.00
Class 41417.1%−7.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%2.03+3.00
2nd–3rd fav300%0.00−3.00
4th–6th fav20210%1.38−3.00
7th+ in betting5100%0.00−51.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Under 6f27311.1%−5.00
6f – 7f2000%−20.00
1m – 1m1f1600%−16.00
1m2f – 1m4f700%−7.00
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
2m1f – 2m4f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20225135.9%−29.00
20231700%−17.00
2024800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps3837.9%−16.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3525.7%−23.00
11-13 runners2800%−28.00
5-7 runners8112.5%+2.00
14-16 runners400%−4.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 16 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 16 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Roger Teal (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
50014000000025
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
53
Archived wins
£262k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 9 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
La Roca Del Fuego (IRE) — Sharon Murray Memorial Handicap Chelmsford City (AW) · Dec 2022 · Class 4
£6,696
Glastonberry (GB) — BetVictor NonRunner No Bet At Cheltenham 2014 Handicap Kempton (AW) · Mar 2014 · Class 4
£5,175
Mcdelta (GB) — Screwfix Live 2013 Handicap Epsom Downs · Sep 2013 · Class 5
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,706 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 640. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,838 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 188. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.
Exceed and Excel (AUS)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.8% of 16,019 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 832 · newest first
The latest 50 of 832 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 April 2006 to 9 March 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Geoffrey Deacon's strike rate?
Geoffrey Deacon has won 3 of 76 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 3.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Geoffrey Deacon's Fair A/E?
0.88, from 75 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Geoffrey Deacon·SR 3.9%·A/E 0.88
KTB
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