What is Shane Kelly's strike rate?

Shane Kelly has won 42 of 509 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Shane Kelly do best at?

Leicester by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 rides (11.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Shane Kelly ride most for?

Pam Sly, with 78 rides since 2022 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (12.8%).

What is Shane Kelly's Fair A/E?

0.89, from 502 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Shane Kelly

509 rides in the last 5 seasons · 302 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2025 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

42–509

Wins / Runs

8.3%

Strike rate

n=509

118 (23%)

Placed

0.89

Fair A/E

n=502 · 0.76 incl. margin

−221.59

£1 level stake

n=509 at SP · −43.5%

£533k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 100 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.89). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (53 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 509 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 9.6% 37.2% when favourite Pam Sly: 12.8% from 78 LTO winners: 18.9% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

It is weakest at Wolverhampton (AW) (4% over 50 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.9% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.94), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.3% (n=38, Fair A/E 0.97). Pam Sly supplies 15% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.8% vs 8.3%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (19%, n=42). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 4.2% over 95 rides, 4.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 0.50 across 98 rides (5.1% strike, −71.05 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 25 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot (Jul 2018, £93,375). The standout partner of the record: Picansort (GB) — 8 wins from 59 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.9%−1.4

n=262 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −121.39

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.9%+10.6

n=53 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −16.96

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

9.6%+1.3

n=83 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −50.02

When favourite

37.2%

n=43 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +3.83

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.3%−3.0

n=38 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −26.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.3

n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 18.9% vs 8.3% · n=53

Over 1m5f – 2m 19% vs 8.3% · n=42

With Pam Sly 12.8% vs 8.3% · n=78

Over 1m – 1m1f 4.2% vs 8.3% · n=95

At Wolverhampton (AW) 4% vs 8.3% · n=50

Off a 31-60-day break 5.1% vs 8.3% · n=98

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 8.3% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 271 19 7% −135.92

Good 89 9 10.1% −42.40

Good to Firm 81 5 6.2% −67.27

Good to Soft 27 2 7.4% +28.50

Soft 27 5 18.5% −5.00

Heavy 14 2 14.3% +0.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 82 5 6.1% −47.25

Lingfield (AW) 65 6 9.2% −34.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 50 2 4% −26.12

Chelmsford City (AW) 48 3 6.3% −19.50

Leicester 34 4 11.8% +36.50

Southwell (AW) 26 3 11.5% −9.05

Windsor 24 2 8.3% −8.50

Newmarket 19 2 10.5% −9.75

Yarmouth 17 0 0% −17.00

Newmarket 16 2 12.5% −2.00

Salisbury 16 2 12.5% −10.09

Doncaster 14 2 14.3% −9.75

Nottingham 13 1 7.7% −6.50

Brighton 9 1 11.1% −5.50

Bath 9 1 11.1% −6.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 202 20 9.9% −41.03

Class 6 142 9 6.3% −75.25

Class 4 100 10 10% −54.44

Class 3 27 1 3.7% −19.00

Class 2 24 2 8.3% −17.87

Class 1 13 0 0% −13.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 47 18 38.3% 1.38 +8.58

2nd–3rd fav 103 14 13.6% 0.80 −34.67

4th–6th fav 151 8 5.3% 0.71 −59.50

7th+ in betting 208 2 1% 0.37 −136.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Harb (GB) 26 3 7 1 Apr 25

Astral Beau (GB) 17 4 7 9 Jul 24

Ballybaymoonshiner (FR) 15 2 8 15 Jan 25

Perianth (IRE) 10 1 1 9 Jul 25

Wintercrack (GB) 10 1 1 11 Jun 25

Duty Of Care (GB) 10 2 4 1 Mar 24

Special Mayson (GB) 8 1 3 15 Jun 24

Cubanista (GB) 8 0 2 6 Sep 23

Steelriver (IRE) 8 1 3 20 Jul 22

Torfrida (GB) 7 1 5 28 Apr 25

Astral Spirit (GB) 7 1 5 19 May 24

Talking Rubbish (GB) 5 0 0 11 Feb 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 302 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

987135614577195

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPam Sly

15% of all rides
12.8% SR · A/E 1.13

TrainerRWSR£1

Pam Sly 78 10 12.8% +27.25

Jamie Osborne 45 4 8.9% −15.25

Peter Crate 37 3 8.1% −21.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,095

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.31m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 93 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Burnt Sugar (IRE) — Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Jul 2018 · Class 2

£93,375

Geordieland (FR) — Emirates Airline Yorkshire Cup (Group 2) York · May 2008 · Group 2

£79,478

Rohaan (IRE) — Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Jun 2021 · Class 2

£64,800

Notable horses

Picansort (GB) Saharia (IRE) Rezwaan (GB) Gossiping (GB) Matraash (USA) Resplendent Glory (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Muhaarar (GB) 9.4% · 3–32

Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,828 runs since 2019 (415 horses).

Dandy Man (IRE) 9.1% · 2–22

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,988 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Brazen Beau (AUS) 20% · 4–20

Progeny have won 10.2% of 2,475 runs since 2019 (186 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.7% from 162. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 15.8% from 158.

Bated Breath (GB) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,177 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.

Cracksman (GB) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,823 runs since 2022 (239 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 105. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16% from 269.

Iffraaj (GB) 7.1% · 1–14

Progeny have won 10.5% of 13,994 runs since 2010 (1,093 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 11,398 · newest first

The latest 50 of 11,398 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 12 October 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

12 Oct 25 Goodwood Amazing Journey (IRE)T: Jamie Osborne Irish Stallion Farms EBF NurseryClass 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 7th 11/2

09 Sep 25 Leicester Fenlander (GB)T: Pam Sly Rowleys HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 9/4F

07 Aug 25 Nottingham Special Breeze (GB)T: Pam Sly Weatherbys Digital Solutions Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good · 9 ran 9th 150/1

30 Jul 25 Sandown Whatsgoingonmarvin (IRE)T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Chasemore Farm Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 4/1

26 Jul 25 Windsor Mister Sandman (GB)T: Peter Crate Global QA - ISO & BRCGS Consultants Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 4th 10/1

24 Jul 25 Newbury Deep Water Bay (GB)T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Price Boosts Now Live At BetVictor HandicapClass 5 · 16f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 1st 13/8F

24 Jul 25 Newbury Strength of Spirit (IRE)T: K R Burke Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor NurseryClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 16/5

12 Jul 25 York Amazing Journey (IRE)T: Jamie Osborne John Smith's NurseryClass 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 5/2F

10 Jul 25 Doncaster Emery Down (GB)T: John Butler Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 9th 33/1

09 Jul 25 Yarmouth Perianth (IRE)T: Pam Sly Winning Experience With Moulton Racing Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 7th 22/1

27 Jun 25 Doncaster Danzart (IRE)T: Stella Barclay Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 11th 40/1

27 Jun 25 Doncaster Pendragon (IRE)T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Get Raceday Ready HandicapClass 5 · 14.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 1st 1/2F

19 Jun 25 Ripon Pendragon (IRE)T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Masons Gin 'Who Dares, Gins' HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good · 6 ran 1st 11/10F

19 Jun 25 Ripon Bosphorus Rose (GB)T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt Grantley Hall HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 9/2

11 Jun 25 Yarmouth Wintercrack (GB)T: Pam Sly Paul Corrigan Memorial HandicapClass 4 · 8f · Good · 7 ran 7th 28/1

11 Jun 25 Yarmouth Perianth (IRE)T: Pam Sly QuinnBet Quarterback HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 8 ran 7th 10/1

29 Apr 25 Brighton Lady In Havana (GB)T: Martin Dunne starsportsbet.co.uk HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 4th 16/1

28 Apr 25 Windsor Torfrida (GB)T: Pam Sly Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 11/4

28 Apr 25 Windsor Robbo (IRE)T: Gary & Josh Moore Snap Fitness Monday Night Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 33/1

28 Apr 25 Windsor Sandscreendeliverd (GB)T: Peter Crate Thames Hospice HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 10th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Shane Kelly's strike rate?: Shane Kelly has won 42 of 509 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Shane Kelly do best at?: Leicester by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 rides (11.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Shane Kelly ride most for?: Pam Sly, with 78 rides since 2022 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (12.8%).
What is Shane Kelly's Fair A/E?: 0.89, from 502 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.