1:35 Chepstow
This Class 4 Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow over 2m0f16y on good to soft ground features an 11-runner field where experience is thin on the ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 41, underlining how little hard form there is to work with and how much rests on trainer records, pedigree and limited racecourse evidence. With the KTB Selection Two Steppin carrying the top Fit rating of 56 despite a pulled-up debut, the race looks wide open and heavily dependent on how the newcomers perform.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is only medium, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Several runners are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, including the top two in the KTB Fit order and a number of others with high-confidence held-up tags. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line or whether those capable of racing more prominently can take advantage of the lack of obvious front-runners.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Two Steppin KTB Selection56/100
Two Steppin tops the KTB Fit ratings at 56 despite having only one run on the board, having been pulled up on debut. There is therefore very little to go on, with trip and ground both unknowns given the small sample. The yard has an 8% strike rate at Chepstow from 12 runs while jockey Callum Pritchard posts a 9% record from 43 rides here. Dropping in class today, the horse is usually held up and produces its effort late according to limited evidence with low confidence. Overall this remains a low-data profile but the KTB view rates it the most likely.
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2Whistling Dave50/100
Whistling Dave is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with juveniles. Dan Skelton has a solid 12% strike rate at Chepstow from 354 runs while Charlie Todd's 6% record from 33 rides carries an above-average A/E of 1.29. By Waldgeist, who has a 9% overall win rate from 912 runners, this debutant must be judged mainly on what the stable usually produces first time out. Data confidence is low and the horse has no course win on record. The KTB Fit rating of 50 places it second in the field.
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3Dundeelin48/100
Dundeelin is a debutant with no racecourse experience, so the form assessment is based on pedigree and the trainer's record. The Harry Derham yard has a solid 23% strike rate at Chepstow from 40 runs. Calum Hogan has no recorded rides at the track, registering a neutral score. By Australia, who has an 11% overall win rate from 5784 runners, this newcomer has no course win on record. With a KTB Fit rating of 48 it sits joint-third in the order and will be of interest given the yard's local record.
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4Houndswood Willow48/100
Houndswood Willow arrives with an official rating of 96 and recent form figures of 32, showing steady placed form this year as a useful performer. It finished only fifth when tried here previously and drops back in trip today having last run over 2m1½f, which poses a fresh question. The trainer and jockey both operate at an 11% strike rate at Chepstow from solid sample sizes, with the partnership showing a 3/21 (14%) record and A/E 1.00. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, it has three runs on good to soft without a win or place. The KTB Fit rating of 48 places it joint-third.
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5Pass The Buck48/100
Pass The Buck has shown only modest form in eight starts and was beaten when third on its latest outing, with recent form figures of 3. Dropping in class today, the Harry Derham yard holds a solid 23% strike rate at Chepstow from 40 runs. Jockey Paul O'Brien is operating below par with a 10% record from 100 rides here and the partnership shows 128/556 (23%) with A/E 0.97. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the horse is unproven on good to soft and has only one run at today's trip. Several questions remain unanswered and the KTB Fit rating is 48.
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6Confused48/100
Confused is a lightly-raced 3-year-old with only four career runs and medium data confidence, so plenty remains to be seen. The trainer holds a 13% strike rate at Chepstow from eight runs while Harry Cobden posts a solid 23% from 318 rides here. Stepping up to 2m for the first time from 1m4½f poses a fresh question and the going remains unknown given the small sample. Usually held up with high confidence, the KTB Fit rating is 48.
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7Roly Mo47/100
Roly Mo is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the form assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Chepstow from 66 runs. The jockey’s 8% strike rate at the track from 159 rides is more modest. By Masterstroke, who has a 10% overall win rate from 813 runners, the horse has no course win on record and a KTB Fit rating of 47.
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8Sacre Chef45/100
Sacre Chef is a newcomer from the Skelton yard, bought for 62,000 euros as a yearling and by Karaktar out of a dam who produced a useful jumps winner. It carries the first-time tongue-tie. Connections have a solid record at Chepstow but this remains a low-confidence debut with very little else to go on. The KTB Fit rating is 45.
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9Valpovo44/100
Valpovo has only three career runs and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m2f to 2m, so this is very much an unknown quantity. The yard has a 9% strike rate from 264 runs at Chepstow while Kielan Woods is 8% from 80 rides here, both modest figures. With such a light profile and low data confidence the form is impossible to weigh up with any real certainty. Usually held up with limited evidence and low confidence, the KTB Fit rating is 44.
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10Tokyo Tower43/100
Tokyo Tower has only two career runs and steps up markedly in trip today to 2m, which remains an open question. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 18 runs at Chepstow while Jack Tudor has a solid 9% from 129 rides here. First-time headgear is fitted but with such a light profile the overall picture stays tentative. The KTB Fit rating is 43.
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11Solar Jet41/100
Solar Jet is a lightly-raced 3-year-old with just two career starts and very limited data to work from. The trip is stepped up today to 2m for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Dan Skelton has a 12% strike rate from 354 runs at Chepstow while Liam Harrison is operating at just 1% from 70 rides here. Usually held up with medium confidence, the KTB Fit rating is 41.
KTB verdict
Two Steppin is the KTB Selection despite the pulled-up debut and the complete lack of experience on good to soft or at the course. The modest Fit scores across the field and the low level of hard form mean that trainer form, jockey records at Chepstow and pedigree will carry unusual weight. Whistling Dave, Dundeelin and the more experienced Houndswood Willow and Pass The Buck are the most obvious dangers in a race that could easily throw up a surprise given how steadily it is likely to be run.
KTB Selection Two Steppin
This is the narrative read of the 1:35 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and why is it the selection?
Two Steppin with 56/100. Despite being pulled up on debut and having very little to go on it tops the KTB ratings in a field where experience is limited.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, as several runners are held-up types who produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Chepstow in this field?
Harry Derham with 23% from 40 runs, relevant for both Dundeelin and Pass The Buck.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track among those riding?
Harry Cobden with 23% from 318 rides, partnering Confused.
Which horses are stepping up markedly in trip today?
Valpovo from 1m2f to 2m, Tokyo Tower to 2m, Confused to 2m from 1m4½f and Solar Jet to 2m for the first time.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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