1:35 Punchestown
A 15-runner handicap over 1m at Punchestown features a field of largely modest performers, with official ratings clustered between 54 and 76. The KTB Fit Scores reflect limited overall quality and consistency, topped by Flying Fortress on 61 with the remainder trailing between 54 and 38. Most runners are unproven on the ground in question and several make their first appearance at the track, adding layers of uncertainty to an already open-looking contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence, as there is only thin evidence of a clear front-runner. Excuzio Joe has shown front-running tendencies in the past, while several others including Flying Fortress, Earls, Amplitude, Speckled Meadow and Flash Of Fire like to race prominently or handily. This could result in a contested lead or an uneven pace, posing the key question of whether those racing prominently can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart for the hold-up performers such as San Aer, Lady Arwen and The Rock Factor.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Flying Fortress KTB Selection61/100
Flying Fortress is a modest performer whose recent form line of 508240 shows flashes of ability but no real consistency. He drops back to 1m today having won at the trip before, although his last run came over 1m4f so this represents a fresh question. The trainer Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate at Punchestown from 560 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while jockey Robert Whearty is 13% from just eight rides at the track. With a prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be well placed if the tentative pace shape allows those up with the speed to get an easy time of it. He remains unproven on the ground in question and has no course form on record.
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2Cash Me54/100
Cash Me is a modest performer who showed a bit of spark when winning a 6f handicap at Naas last summer but has been largely out of form since. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 5f, which asks a fresh question, and the small sample on this ground leaves suitability unknown. Trainer A Oliver records an 8% strike rate at Punchestown from 37 runs, in line with his overall figure, while jockey Andrew Slattery is 9% from 11 rides here. Typically settling in midfield, his positioning may leave him with plenty to do if the race is run at a strong pace or falls apart for those up front. His recent form figures read 01969-.
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3San Aer52/100
San Aer is a modest performer with a long record of ordinary efforts and has been well held on his only previous visit to Punchestown, finishing 19th. He steps up to a trip at which he has won twice from 24 starts though his recent form of 005255 offers little encouragement. The trainer Ross O'Sullivan has an 8% strike rate at the track from 205 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while jockey Donagh O'Connor is still seeking a first win from 12 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the tentative pace shape collapses in front to give him something to aim at. He carries an official rating of 69.
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4Earls49/100
Earls is a modest performer whose recent form line of 237090 shows little spark. He steps up to 1m today having won at the trip before though his last run came over 7½f. Trainer Gavin Cromwell records a 12% strike rate at Punchestown from 560 runs in line with his overall figure while jockey Jack Kearney is 0-12 here and the horse makes its first appearance at the track. With a prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be involved early if the pace is not too strong. He remains unproven on the ground in question.
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5Jp's Express48/100
Jp's Express is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back to a trip he has won at before but is unproven on this ground and makes his first appearance at Punchestown. Trainer Michael Mulvany has a 2% strike rate here from 46 runs while jockey Wesley Joyce has an 11% strike rate from 9 rides. Typically settling in midfield, his run-style may prove vulnerable if those racing prominently get an easy lead. His recent form figures read 563003 and he carries an official rating of 70.
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6Lady Arwen47/100
Lady Arwen is a modest performer who has won three times at this trip from 20 attempts but is dropping back in distance today after her latest run over 1m1f. She has shown some ability here with a fourth and eighth from two runs at Punchestown yet remains winless at the track. The trainer records a 4% strike rate at Punchestown from 181 runs while the jockey is 0-8 at the course and the mare is unproven on this ground.
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7Amplitude47/100
Amplitude is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, posting figures of 933457 from his last six starts. He drops back to 1m today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous tries at the trip, and he is unproven on this ground. The trainer has a 4% strike rate at Punchestown from 54 runs while the jockey is 0 from 19 rides here.
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8Lady Mary Heath47/100
Lady Mary Heath is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with a best of third over this trip. She makes her first start at Punchestown and is unproven on the ground. The trainer operates at a 3% strike rate here from 117 runs while the jockey is 7% from 28 rides.
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9Speckled Meadow46/100
Speckled Meadow is a modest performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and now drops back from 1m3½f to a trip at which he has won twice from 21 attempts. He makes his first appearance at Punchestown today having had all 47 career runs elsewhere and remains unproven on this ground. The trainer has no recorded runners here while the jockey has had only four rides at the track.
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10Excuzio Joe46/100
Excuzio Joe is a modest performer who has shown little on his last few starts but did finish second in a handicap here over two years ago. He has won at this trip in the past though his overall strike rate is low and he was well beaten on his only previous run at Punchestown. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 4% strike rate here while the horse remains unproven on the current ground.
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11Flash Of Fire43/100
Flash Of Fire is a fair 3-year-old who has shown steady placed form without winning. Half-sister to Mcintosh (1 win from 7 runs) with the dam having had 3 other runners, 2 of them winners. He finished fourth on his only run at Punchestown and steps up to 1m today having been unsuccessful in three previous attempts at the trip. The trainer operates at a 5% strike rate here from 20 runs while the jockey has had only two rides at the track.
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12Sylkie42/100
Sylkie is a limited performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year. He has been well beaten both previous runs at Punchestown and is unproven on the current ground. Dropping back to 1m is a plus as he has won three times at the trip from nine attempts.
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13The Rock Factor42/100
The Rock Factor is limited on official rating of 54 and with recent form of 9899 this four-year-old has struggled in five career starts. Half-brother to Zoulette (1 win from 8 runs) with the dam having had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner. He has been beaten in three runs at today's trip and the small sample leaves going suitability unknown. Emmet Mullins has a 13 percent strike rate at Punchestown from 112 runs.
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14Aquilla Star41/100
Aquilla Star is a modest performer who has won once at this trip from four attempts. She makes a first appearance at Punchestown today and is unproven on the ground. The trainer records a 4% strike rate here from 221 runs while the jockey has had only two rides at the track.
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15Titanium38/100
Titanium is a modest performer who has won five times at this trip from 22 starts. Punchestown form reads poorly with a tenth on his only visit and the trainer's 3% strike rate here is in line with his overall record. The jockey has only three rides at the track so far and the horse remains unproven on this ground.
KTB verdict
Flying Fortress is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit Score in a modest field and his prominent run-style could be an asset in a race with only tentative pace on offer. While his form lacks real consistency, he has won over the trip before and the trainer-jockey combination at least brings some course knowledge. The main dangers are likely to come from Cash Me if the step up in trip suits, San Aer if the race falls apart late, and possibly Earls or Amplitude if they can capitalise on their handy positioning.
KTB Selection Flying Fortress
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:04am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Flying Fortress | 18/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Cash Me | 28/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| San Aer | 5/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Earls | 12/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Jp's Express | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Lady Arwen | 16/1 | LiveScore Bet, 12:00am |
| Amplitude | 10/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Lady Mary Heath | 6/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Speckled Meadow | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Excuzio Joe | 8/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Flash Of Fire | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Sylkie | 14/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| The Rock Factor | 16/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
| Aquilla Star | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Titanium | 20/1 | BetTom, 12:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:35 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won the most times at this trip?
Titanium has won five times at this trip from 22 starts.
How many previous runs has San Aer had at Punchestown?
San Aer has had one previous run at Punchestown, finishing 19th with no win or place.
What is Emmet Mullins' strike rate at Punchestown?
Emmet Mullins has a 13% strike rate at Punchestown from 112 runs.
Which runners are making their first appearance at Punchestown?
Flying Fortress, Cash Me, Earls, Jp's Express, Amplitude, Lady Mary Heath, Speckled Meadow, Aquilla Star and The Rock Factor are all making their first appearance at Punchestown.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at the track among the principals?
Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate at Punchestown from 560 runs with both Flying Fortress and Earls.
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