1:57 Fontwell
This Class 4 maiden hurdle over 2m3f at Fontwell on good ground brings together a field of 13, several of whom arrive with placed form but without a win over hurdles. The KTB numbers identify Tread Carefully as the clear top pick on a Fit score of 68, with the next five clustered between 56 and 51, suggesting a race where proven ability and yard trends at the track will carry significant weight. Several runners are stepping up in trip for the first time while others remain lightly raced, adding layers of uncertainty to what the KTB assessment views as a genuinely competitive heat.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Tread Carefully is expected to take up his usual role making the running or racing prominently, while Lord du Gouet could provide early pressure from a similar style and both Graeme The Grey and On The Bayou are likely to race handily. This sets up a fair test that will ask its main question of the hold-up performers such as Ben Cruachan, My Lady d'Ex and Midnight Lexi, who will need to time their efforts well off what should be an honest gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tread Carefully KTB Selection68/100
Tread Carefully arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit score of 68 and an official rating of 115. A smart performer, he has been knocking on the door this season with two seconds from his last four completed starts and his recent form reads 252U2-. He tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before which asks a fresh question. The Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies yard boasts a 60% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 1.63 from 5 runs, while Sam Twiston-Davies has a 22% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.93 from 289 rides. He is placed from two starts on good ground though without a win, and the trainer-jockey combination shows 50/263 (19%) with an A/E of 0.83.
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2Uptoyourselves56/100
Uptoyourselves holds a KTB Fit score of 56 and steps up in class having shown some promise when third here over shorter last time after a long break, with recent form figures reading /7P1-3. The step up in trip is an unknown and the overall profile remains very lightly raced with only four career starts. Trainer Lydia Richards has a 13% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 1.2 from 222 runs while Marc Goldstein has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1 from 595 rides. He has one run on good ground without a win or place and has finished third once from one run at the course. The trainer and jockey record stands at 23/189 (12%) with an A/E of 1.24.
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3Ben Cruachan55/100
Ben Cruachan is rated with a KTB Fit score of 55 and was placed third on debut here over this trip, showing enough to suggest he can build on that with form figures of 3-. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 1.25 from 30 runs. Everything else is based on a single run so must be read with caution. He is held up and produces his effort late with limited evidence and low confidence, has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface, and has finished third once from one run at the course. The trainer-jockey partnership shows 18/83 (22%) with an A/E of 1.04.
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4My Lady d'Ex52/100
My Lady d'Ex is a lightly raced 4-year-old with a KTB Fit score of 52 and recent form of 9-76. She has produced two runs at Fontwell that resulted in a sixth and a seventh, showing little promise either time. The trainer holds a strong 34% strike rate here with an A/E of 2.08 from 29 runs, but the jockey has only limited experience at the track with a 0% strike rate and A/E of 0 from 1 ride. She has three runs on good ground without a win or place and has finished sixth and seventh from two runs at the course. The trainer and jockey record stands at 2/6 (33%), and she is usually held up with medium confidence.
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5On The Bayou51/100
On The Bayou has a KTB Fit score of 51 and showed promise when winning a bumper on debut but has been well held in both subsequent hurdle starts with form figures of 1/525-. He now steps up markedly in trip for a yard that has a solid 27% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 1.01 from 108 runs. With only three career runs and no meaningful data on either ground or this new distance the form must be treated with caution. He usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, has no course form on record and no runs on good ground. The trainer and jockey combination shows 42/232 (18%) with an A/E of 0.97.
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6Graeme The Grey50/100
Graeme The Grey has a KTB Fit score of 50 and has shown steady improvement, finishing a clear second over this course and distance on his most recent start with form figures of 4/346-. He has placed once in three runs here and his overall profile suggests he is not yet fully exposed after just five career runs. The yard maintains a solid 13% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 0.95 from 387 runs. He usually races handily with medium confidence, has one run on good without a win or place, and the trainer-jockey record is 11/116 (9%) with an A/E of 0.85.
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7Lord du Gouet49/100
Lord du Gouet holds a KTB Fit score of 49 and showed promise when winning on debut over 2m last season before finishing third on his return with form of 13-. He now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 0.96 from 277 runs while the jockey also knows the track well with a 15% strike rate and A/E of 0.82 from 91 rides. He tends to make the running with limited evidence and low confidence, has no runs on good ground, and the trainer-jockey record is 12/60 (20%) with an A/E of 1.06. He steps up in class.
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8Midnight Lexi48/100
Midnight Lexi has a KTB Fit score of 48 and has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing third then sixth with form figures of 36. She now steps up in trip to 2m3f for the first time which asks a fresh question. The Dan Skelton yard posts a 19% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 0.84 from 194 runs while Tristan Durrell has a 19% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.11 from 26 rides. She is placed once from two runs on good ground, is usually held up with medium confidence, and the trainer-jockey record is 102/755 (14%) with an A/E of 0.98.
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9Uncle Scrooge48/100
Uncle Scrooge is a debutant with a KTB Fit score of 48 whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the Gordon yard. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Fontwell with an A/E of 0.95 from 891 runs. With no racecourse form and low data confidence little else can be said about his immediate prospects. He has no course win on record, and the trainer-jockey record stands at 80/380 (21%) with an A/E of 1.14.
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10Unknown Stranger46/100
Unknown Stranger has a KTB Fit score of 46 and has shown very little so far with a pulled-up effort here on his only start this season and two modest fourths the previous year, form reading P/44-P. The yard's record at Fontwell is modest with a 5% strike rate and A/E of 0.67 from 20 runs. Course form and trip experience add no encouragement from the small sample available. He is held up with limited evidence and low confidence, has no runs on good ground, and the trainer-jockey record is 0/15 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00.
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11Eastern Rock45/100
Eastern Rock has a KTB Fit score of 45 and showed promise when winning on debut at Taunton last spring before pulling up on his return in a stronger race with form of P12-. He now steps up in trip as a lightly-raced 5-year-old with only three career runs behind him. Trainer Emma Lavelle has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.88 from 278 runs at Fontwell. He typically settles in midfield with limited evidence and low confidence, has no runs on good ground, steps up in class, and the trainer-jockey record is 41/249 (16%) with an A/E of 1.06.
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12La Trinite44/100
La Trinite holds a KTB Fit score of 44 and has shown only modest form in 13 starts, being beaten when third on its most recent outing with form of 3. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question while its record on good ground reads four runs without a win or place. Trainer Neil King has a 13% strike rate with an A/E of 0.91 from 191 runs at Fontwell while Jack Quinlan has a 0% strike rate from 3 rides at the track. She is usually held up with medium confidence, steps up in class, and the trainer-jockey record stands without a supplied percentage.
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13Cool Customer42/100
Cool Customer has a KTB Fit score of 42 and showed consistent placed form over 2m last season with form figures of 2/231- before returning off a break. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with only three career runs. Trainer Fergal O'Brien has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.7 from 76 runs at Fontwell while jockey Fern O'Brien has a 0% strike rate from 10 rides at the track. He usually races handily with medium confidence, has no runs on good ground, steps up in class, and the trainer-jockey record is 30/223 (13%) with an A/E of 0.84.
KTB verdict
Tread Carefully is the KTB selection. He has been knocking on the door with two seconds from his last four completed starts and benefits from a trainer with a 60% strike rate at Fontwell from a small but meaningful sample. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question but his ability and the yard's record at the venue make him the one to beat on these terms. The main dangers are Uptoyourselves, who showed promise when third here last time and steps up in trip as a lightly raced sort, and Ben Cruachan, who built on his debut third over the course and distance. Graeme The Grey, who was second over this C&D last time, and On The Bayou, stepping up markedly in trip from a yard in form at the track, complete the most likely threats.
KTB Selection Tread Carefully
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 21 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tread Carefully | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Uptoyourselves | 33/1 | BoyleSports |
| Ben Cruachan | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| My Lady d'Ex | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| On The Bayou | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Graeme The Grey | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| Lord du Gouet | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Midnight Lexi | 100/1 | 7Bet |
| Uncle Scrooge | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Unknown Stranger | 125/1 | Bet365 |
| Eastern Rock | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| La Trinite | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Cool Customer | 4/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 1:57 Fontwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Fontwell racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Fontwell results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Fontwell racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip for the first time?
Tread Carefully drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before.
How many runs has the trainer of Ben Cruachan had at Fontwell?
The yard has a solid 20% strike-rate at Fontwell from 30 runs.
Which runner has finished second over this course and distance?
Graeme The Grey finished a clear second over this course and distance on his most recent start.
What is the strike rate at Fontwell for the trainer of My Lady d'Ex?
The trainer holds a strong 34% strike rate at Fontwell from 29 runs.
How many career starts does Lord du Gouet have?
Lord du Gouet has only two career starts shown by his form figures of 13- before stepping up in trip.
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