2:12 Windsor
This Class 5 apprentice handicap at Windsor over 6f12y on good ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Come On Eibhlin heading the numbers on 64. Most of the field are held-up types, which aligns with the race's pace shape of a lone leader likely to enjoy an uncontested lead.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little pressure. The remainder of the field, almost all held-up runners, will be positioned towards the rear and asked to close late. The key question is whether the clear leader can maintain the advantage on good ground, or if any of the closers will be able to peg it back in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Come On Eibhlin KTB Selection64/100
Come On Eibhlin is a modest performer who has shown consistency this year without progressing. She has won over this trip and on good ground, and she has already won here from just two visits to Windsor. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike-rate at the track with an A/E of 1.22 from 42 runs, while the jockey has a 15% strike-rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.06 from 26 rides. Her recent form figures read 334593 and she will be held up, producing her effort late. From draw 9 she looks to have a good chance of adding to her course record.
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2Rebel Path59/100
Rebel Path is a modest performer with a solid strike-rate at this trip but has become hard to win with lately and his recent form is patchy at best. He has only run once at Windsor, finishing last of 10 that day, so the track may not suit. The trainer holds a modest 8% strike-rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 448 runs, though the jockey has a 50% strike-rate at Windsor with an A/E of 3.17 from just two rides. He will be held up with high confidence in that run-style and acts on good ground having won once from eight starts. His form figures read 738038.
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3Noelies Dream58/100
Noelies Dream is a modest performer who showed some spark when winning a 5f maiden at Kempton in December. She steps up to 6f today for the first time since two earlier runs at the trip brought no joy, and the small overall sample makes the good ground an unknown. The trainer has a solid 14% strike-rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.22 from 42 runs, though the jockey's record reads 6% with an A/E of 0.73 from 33 rides. She will be held up with high confidence and her form figures read 55815-. From the inside draw she could be well placed to make a late run if the ground proves suitable.
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4Distant Rumble55/100
Distant Rumble is a modest performer who has won twice at Windsor from six runs and also has three wins at today's trip from 16 attempts. He has been placed twice from three starts on good ground without winning and comes here in ordinary recent form. The trainer operates at a 9% strike-rate at the track with an A/E of 0.83 from 183 runs, while the jockey has an 8% strike-rate at Windsor with an A/E of 0.88 from 13 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form reads 621377. He has course-and-distance winning form which adds to his claims.
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5Good Earth52/100
Good Earth is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while. He has placed once from two runs at Windsor and has a solid record on good ground with two wins from ten starts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before though the wide draw in stall 13 is far from ideal. The trainer has a 10% strike-rate at Windsor with an A/E of 0.69 from 10 runs, while the jockey records 9% with an A/E of 0.64 from 32 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, his form figures read 420564.
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6Jimmy Knocker48/100
Jimmy Knocker is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year without winning. He has won twice at today's trip from 12 starts and is placed once from three runs on good ground, though he is 0-5 at Windsor on his first run here. The trainer is also 0-5 at the track while the 5lb claimer is an unknown quantity.
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7Stock Market47/100
Stock Market is a limited performer who has been placed without winning in six of his last seven starts. He has already shown he handles this track and trip, finishing third here over 6f on his only previous visit, and he acts on good ground. The trainer has a modest 7% strike-rate at Windsor from 760 runs while the apprentice is still building her record at the track.
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8Arnaz45/100
Arnaz is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his better side when winning twice in the spring. He handles good ground and has scored over today's trip though his recent form has been patchy. Dropping in class, the trainer has a modest 1% strike-rate at Windsor from 68 runs.
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9Punchbowl Flyer44/100
Punchbowl Flyer is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at Windsor and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from twelve runs. He has also won at today's trip though his recent form has been patchy and the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at the track adds another negative.
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10Monsieur Patat44/100
Monsieur Patat is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won three of his seven runs at Windsor. He has also won at this trip and on good ground, though his recent form has been patchy and he is now 9 years old. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at the track is another negative.
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11Zoulu Warrior44/100
Zoulu Warrior is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of lesser efforts. He has won on good ground and at today's trip though both positives are now some way back. Stepping up in class, the trainer's modest strike-rate at Windsor adds little encouragement.
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12Rory's Royale43/100
Rory's Royale is a modest performer who has shown little since a placed effort on debut last year. He drops back to an untried 6f today with first-time headgear applied. The trainer's modest record at Windsor adds little confidence.
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13Havana Halo39/100
Havana Halo is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second here over today's trip on his penultimate start. He has run well enough in two of his last three starts but lacks a win in eight career runs and was well held on his only previous try on good ground. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Windsor from a big sample adds a note of caution.
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14Yes Waliim36/100
Yes Waliim is a limited horse who has shown just flashes of ability in ten runs. He has placed twice at this trip and was second here on his only other visit to Windsor, but has failed to build on that and is 0-2 on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried.
KTB verdict
Come On Eibhlin is the KTB Selection. She has already won over course and distance, acts on good ground and is with a trainer who holds a solid record at Windsor. Her consistent recent form gives her a strong chance of capitalising on the uncontested lead scenario if she can produce her late effort at the right time. The main dangers are Distant Rumble, who has won twice at the track, and Noelies Dream if the good ground proves no issue for her.
KTB Selection Come On Eibhlin
This is the narrative read of the 2:12 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Windsor results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at Windsor?
Come On Eibhlin has won here from two visits, Distant Rumble has won twice from six runs, and Monsieur Patat has won three from seven.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
A lone leader is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead that can be hard for the many held-up runners to peg back.
Which horses have course-and-distance form?
Come On Eibhlin has won over course and distance, Distant Rumble has won here over the trip, and Punchbowl Flyer has won at the trip and at the course.
Who has the best recent strike-rate combination at the track?
The combination of Dylan Cunha and Jack Callan on Come On Eibhlin, with the trainer at 14% and jockey at 15% at Windsor.
Which runners are trying headgear for the first time?
Rory's Royale and Yes Waliim are both fitted with first-time headgear.
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