2:53 Redcar
This Class 5 handicap over the straight mile at Redcar features a field of 13 modest performers on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Shadow Run heading the numbers on 67, followed by Harswell Ruby on 60 and Cosmos Raj on 56. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks a leader, the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy could prove advantageous.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of early pace, making this a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays. Most of the field, including the top five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, suggesting the race will be decided in the final couple of furlongs. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a slow gallop or if those positioned closer to the pace can steal an advantage. With the majority of runners coming from off the speed, traffic issues in the straight mile could play a significant part.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shadow Run KTB Selection67/100
Shadow Run is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing in two of his last six starts. He steps up to a mile for the first time today having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous try at the distance. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate from 67 runs at Redcar while the 3yo has no previous experience of the track. Christian Howarth takes the ride on a yard that has shown an A/E of 1.51 at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. Dropping in class is another positive for this selection.
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2Harswell Ruby60/100
Harswell Ruby is a modest performer who has run well here in the past, finishing second and fourth from just two visits to Redcar. Consistent rather than progressive, she has shown enough on good ground at this trip to stay competitive in a race of this level. Kevin Stott takes the ride on a yard that has a solid 14% strike rate at the track. With a 1-from-10 record on good going and five places from those runs, she handles the surface. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she will be coming from off the pace in a tactical contest. Her course form of fourth and second adds to her appeal at this venue.
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3Cosmos Raj56/100
Cosmos Raj is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at this track and holds a solid 2-from-9 record on good ground. He arrives in decent nick having won two of his last six starts and drops back to a trip he has won seven times from 37 attempts. The yard fires at a 15% strike rate here from a large sample and Daniel Tudhope takes the ride. Usually held up with medium confidence, he will be looking to produce his effort late. His course win and placed efforts on good ground make him a solid contender in this steadily-run affair. The combination of yard and jockey stats at Redcar adds further strength to his claims.
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4Pisanello53/100
Pisanello is a modest performer with a solid record here, winning twice from eight starts. Recent form of 611127 shows two wins in the last six runs and he has won at this trip three times from 34 attempts. Trainer David O'Meara has a 15% strike rate from 772 runs at Redcar while jockey Mark Winn is 0-4 at the track. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be among those producing a late effort. Stepping up in class today, his course form of two wins from eight is a clear asset. The yard's strong record at the venue helps offset the class rise.
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5Ephron53/100
Ephron is a modest performer who has already won twice this year including over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Connor Beasley is 0-8 here this season while the yard's 8% strike-rate from 53 runs at Redcar is modest at best. Drawn wide today and recent form has been in and out. With a 1-from-3 record on good ground, he has shown he can handle the surface. Usually held up with high confidence, he will need to overcome the wide draw in what is likely to be a tactical race. His course win remains a strong point despite the mixed recent efforts.
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6Henry Halflight53/100
Henry Halflight is a modest performer who has shown mixed form across four runs, winning a weak 7f maiden at Catterick before running poorly in better company last time. He steps up to 1m for the first time today, a trip he has tried once without success. Trainer Liam Bailey has a 6% strike rate from 31 runs at Redcar while the yard drops him in class.
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7Bowood52/100
Bowood is a modest performer who has shown some spark here in the past, finishing third on one of two visits to Redcar. He has won five times at today's trip and handles good ground, though his recent form of 657307 suggests he is struggling to find his best. Ivan Furtado has a 10% strike rate from 99 runs at the track while Elle-May Croot is yet to record a win from her 12 rides here.
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8Just Typical52/100
Just Typical is a modest performer who has won both here and at today's trip. Recent form is ordinary but he has solid placed efforts on good ground and the trainer's 20% strike-rate at Redcar adds some encouragement. Drawn wide in stall 13 which is a clear negative on this track.
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9Legacy Rock51/100
Legacy Rock is a modest performer who has won twice this year and is 2-6 at this trip. Placed once from two runs on good ground but has been well below best on his last three starts. First-time headgear is tried today while the yard is 0-10 at the track.
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10Law of Design48/100
Law of Design is a modest performer who has been running to a similar level all year without winning. Has placed at today's trip but is 0-4 on good ground and now makes his first visit to Redcar from stall 12. Trainer Ian Williams has a solid 20% strike-rate here while Paul Mulrennan is yet to score from his rides at the track.
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11Blue Boy Junior47/100
Blue Boy Junior is a modest performer who has shown steady but unspectacular form in three starts, finishing no closer than fourth. Stall two looks no disadvantage on this track but he is still learning his job and the step back up to today's trip poses a fresh question. Trainer's modest record at Redcar adds little encouragement.
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12Viviana46/100
Viviana is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability without winning in eight runs. She finished a respectable third here over 7f on her only visit to Redcar and has placed once from two starts on good ground. Steps up to a mile for the first time today which asks a fresh question of her.
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13Mount King43/100
Mount King is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track without ever winning, finishing fourth on four of his five visits here. Drops back to a trip he has won at five times from 44 starts though his recent form has been ordinary and he has only one win from 17 runs on good ground. Trainer has an 8% strike rate from over 2300 runs at Redcar.
KTB verdict
Shadow Run is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, he drops in class and is ridden by a jockey with a strong record at Redcar. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style as he looks to produce his effort late. His main dangers are Harswell Ruby, who has solid course form and handles good ground, and Cosmos Raj, who has won at this track and drops back to a trip he knows well. Pisanello's course record and Ephron's previous win here cannot be ignored in what looks a competitive tactical handicap.
KTB Selection Shadow Run
This is the narrative read of the 2:53 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so no one obviously wants the lead, making it a steadily-run affair where being handy pays.
Which horses have course wins at Redcar?
Cosmos Raj has won once from two runs, Pisanello has won twice from eight, Ephron has won once from one, and Just Typical has won once from one.
How many of the field are held-up types?
All thirteen runners have a held-up run-style, with varying levels of confidence from medium to high.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Redcar in this race?
Ian Williams has a 20% strike rate at Redcar from 60 runs.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection?
Shadow Run has a KTB Fit Score of 67/100.
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