3:10 Gowran Park
This 1m75y Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground brings together fifteen two-year-olds, several with placed form but none yet successful. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Churchill Bond on 57, with a cluster of rivals between 53 and 50 underlining the competitive nature of the race. Trainer and jockey combinations show varying degrees of course success, though many runners remain unproven on the prevailing surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Why Oh Why is the clear front-running type in the field and is likely to set a steady gallop from the outset. Most of the principals, including the selection Churchill Bond, are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort from off the pace in the straight, raising the key question of whether the leader can kick on far enough or if the closers will be able to bridge the gap on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Churchill Bond KTB Selection57/100
Churchill Bond arrives with the highest KTB Fit score of 57 and is the clear selection. Rated 85 on official figures, she has shown consistent placed form with figures of 7533, suggesting she is the best handicapped in the line-up. Trained by P Twomey, who posts a 26% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.01 from 43 runs, she is ridden by W J Lee whose record at the track reads 10% with an A/E of 0.86 from 733 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be looking to come from off the pace set by the front-runner. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no previous course form, she still shapes as the one to beat on her overall profile.
-
2Suspect One53/100
Suspect One holds a KTB Fit score of 53 and makes her second start following a debut ninth. Trained by Eoin Doyle, whose record at Gowran reads 9% with an A/E of 1.03 from 232 runs, she is partnered by Wesley Joyce who has an 8% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.06 from 110 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form to speak of, she remains open to improvement from her initial effort. The combination of yard and jockey statistics offers some encouragement, though she will need to step forward markedly to challenge the principals.
-
3Emmas Glory53/100
Emmas Glory is rated 53 on the KTB Fit scale and is by Cotai Glory, who has an 11% overall win rate from 4064 runners. Andrew Kinirons trains her with an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park and an A/E of 1.24 from 36 runs, while J M Sheridan has an 11% record at the track with an A/E of 1 from 217 rides. She has no course win on record and remains unproven over this trip and surface. The pedigree and trainer/jockey course figures provide some underlying positives in what is an open-looking heat.
-
4Why Oh Why52/100
Why Oh Why comes in with a KTB Fit score of 52 and has shown placed form, finishing third here on her latest start. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, she is likely to set the pace in this contest given the shape of the race. James Dowling has a 0% strike rate at Gowran from three runs with an A/E of 0, but Reese Holohan claims 5lb and brings a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.6 from 20 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground, her course placing gives her a foothold in the race and she could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead.
-
5Catherine D Medici50/100
Catherine D Medici is rated 50 on the KTB Fit scale and represents the powerful combination of J P Murtagh and Ben Coen. Murtagh has an 18% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.11 from 345 runs, while Coen posts 14% with an A/E of 1.07 from 353 rides. By Raven's Pass, who has an 11% overall win rate from 5451 runners, she has no course win on record. She will need to improve on what she has shown so far to figure prominently, but the yard and jockey course statistics mean she cannot be dismissed lightly.
-
6Esprit De Loi49/100
Esprit De Loi has a KTB Fit score of 49 following a debut ninth. Trained by Noel Meade with a 12% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.8 from 875 runs, she is ridden by Siobhan Rutledge who has a 6% record at the track with an A/E of 0.97 from 111 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form, she will need to improve.
-
7Golden Gift48/100
Golden Gift holds a KTB Fit of 48 after finishing fourth on debut. Gavin Cromwell trains her with a 9% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.93 from 328 runs, while G F Carroll has a 9% record at the venue with an A/E of 0.85 from 524 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form, she remains open to progress.
-
8Jubel47/100
Jubel has a KTB Fit score of 47 after a sixth on debut. A Slattery trains with a 9% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.85 from 327 runs; he also rides with a 10% record and A/E of 0.95 from 220 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form, she will need to step up.
-
9Itstheonlyoneigot45/100
Itstheonlyoneigot is rated 45 on the KTB Fit scale. By Saxon Warrior, who has an 11% overall win rate from 3074 runners, she is trained by A Slattery with a 9% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.85 from 327 runs. Seamie Heffernan rides with an 11% record at the track and an A/E of 0.95 from 920 rides. She has no course win on record.
-
10Arizonaneargalway45/100
Arizonaneargalway is officially rated 62 with KTB Fit of 45 and recent form figures of 08800. A held-up type, she now tries first-time headgear. Denis Gerard Hogan has a 5% strike rate at Gowran with an A/E of 0.62 from 360 runs; Mel Sheridan claims 7lb with a 13% record at the track and A/E of 2.1 from eight rides. She has one previous run here when eighth and remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
-
11Handsoffshesmine44/100
Handsoffshesmine has a KTB Fit score of 44 after a sixth on debut. A held-up type with limited evidence, she is trained by A Slattery with a 9% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.85 from 327 runs. Shane Foley rides with a 9% record at the track and an A/E of 0.73 from 778 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form.
-
12Katiraya44/100
Katiraya is officially rated 78 with a KTB Fit of 44 and form figures of 850. A mid-division type, she is trained by D K Weld with a 16% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.84 from 1312 runs. Chris Hayes has a 6% record at the track with an A/E of 0.53 from 833 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form.
-
13Drumbinion Lass42/100
Drumbinion Lass holds a KTB Fit of 42 after a fourth on debut. Trained by T G McCourt with a 3% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.47 from 362 runs, she is ridden by James Ryan who has a 4% record at the track with an A/E of 0.67 from 114 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form.
-
14Alosilla41/100
Alosilla is rated 41 on the KTB Fit scale. John S O'Donoghue trains with a 0% strike rate at Gowran from 13 runs and an A/E of 0; Nathan Crosse rides with a 4% record at the track and an A/E of 0.68 from 180 rides. She has no course win on record and a neutral going profile.
-
15Soldier's Charm40/100
Soldier's Charm has the lowest KTB Fit score of 40. Peter McCreery trains with a 1% strike rate at Gowran and an A/E of 0.18 from 177 runs; Jack Cleary claims 5lb with a 4% record at the track and an A/E of 0.51 from 70 rides. Unproven on yielding to soft ground and with no course form.
KTB verdict
Churchill Bond stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit score of 57 and an official rating of 85 that looks strong in this company. Her consistent placed form suggests she has the class to take advantage of what looks an uncontested lead for the front-runner, and the Twomey/Lee combination has solid course figures. The main dangers are Why Oh Why, who may get an easy lead and has already placed over the course, and the improvers Suspect One and Catherine D Medici, both of whom bring trainer/jockey course statistics that command respect.
KTB Selection Churchill Bond
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Churchill Bond | 6/4 | BetTom |
| Suspect One | 66/1 | BetTom |
| Emmas Glory | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Why Oh Why | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Catherine D Medici | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Esprit De Loi | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Golden Gift | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Jubel | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Itstheonlyoneigot | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Arizonaneargalway | 50/1 | Bet Victor |
| Handsoffshesmine | 7/1 | BetTom |
| Katiraya | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Drumbinion Lass | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Alosilla | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Soldier's Charm | 100/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 3:10 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Gowran Park racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Why Oh Why, whose run-style is to tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
The pace shape is a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park in this field?
P Twomey with a 26% strike rate at Gowran Park.
Which jockey has the best A/E at Gowran Park among those riding here?
Reese Holohan with an A/E of 1.6 from 20 rides.
Which horses are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Churchill Bond, Suspect One, Why Oh Why, Esprit De Loi, Golden Gift, Jubel, Handsoffshesmine, Katiraya, Drumbinion Lass and Soldier's Charm have had no runs on yielding to soft.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies