3:15 Bath
The 3:15 at Bath is the Loud Hire Staging Hire Bath Summer Stayers' Series Final Handicap, a Class 2 event over 1m6f on good ground that has attracted a field of 13 qualified stayers. All bar one are stepping up in class, which adds an extra layer of interest to a race where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The KTB numbers rate Taritino and Boilermaker jointly highest on 62, with Percy Jones, Belle Of Kt and Fair Dinkum completing the principals in a contest where recent form, course familiarity and the ability to handle a strong pace will all matter.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up and confidence in that assessment is high. Lusaka, Two Plus Two and Boilermaker are all likely to be forward, while Taritino and Belle Of Kt tend to race prominently just in behind. That early speed could set the race up for hold-up performers such as Percy Jones, Noble Grace and several others from the rear, with the key question being whether the leaders fold late enough to allow the closers to land the spoils.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Taritino KTB Selection62/100
Taritino is the KTB selection. A fair handicapper, he has won both at this track and over today's trip. He has shown solid form on good ground, recording four wins from 21 starts, and arrives in reasonable nick after a string of respectable efforts including figures of 211446. The yard and jockey both have established records at Bath that sit around the 12-13% mark, while the prominent run-style should see him race handily behind the expected pace. Stepping up in class from a draw of 4, he looks set to give another good account.
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2Boilermaker62/100
Boilermaker is rated joint-top on KTB Fit. A modest performer, he has shown steady improvement this year with two wins in his last three starts, one of them over today's trip. He has been placed on both starts on good ground and the yard has a solid recent record at Bath with a 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.18. Luke Morris is less effective at the track by comparison with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.72 from a large sample, and this is the colt's first run here. Front-running tendencies mean he is likely to set the pace in a race where that could prove testing.
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3Percy Jones61/100
Percy Jones is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first four in four of his last six starts. He has placed both times at Bath and is 6 from 11 on good ground, while the step up to 1m6f looks fair given he has already won over the trip. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's strong 23% record at the track from 31 rides. His held-up run-style, pursued with high confidence, should see him delivered late in a race where the strong pace is expected to collapse.
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4Belle Of Kt60/100
Belle Of Kt is a modest performer who has been in excellent heart of late with five wins from her last six starts. She is 1 from 1 at this track and has won on good ground as well as at today's trip. The drop back from 2m looks a sensible move and both trainer and jockey have solid records here, the latter with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.24 from 43 rides. Prominent in her racing style, she should be on or close to the early pace from stall 8 in what is another step up in class.
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5Fair Dinkum57/100
Fair Dinkum is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts. He has won over this trip and at this track, though his record on good ground is only moderate with one win from 11 starts. The trainer holds a solid record at Bath with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 1.41 from a small sample, while the jockey's strike rate here is modest. Prominent in his run-style, he is likely to race handily in a strongly-run race from his draw of 10.
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6Noble Grace55/100
Noble Grace is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a third from his last five starts. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question, while the wide draw in stall 14 is far from ideal on this track.
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7Curran52/100
Curran is a modest performer who has won over this trip four times from 11 starts and showed his liking for the track when scoring here on his only previous visit. He has a solid record on good ground and the recent form figures include two wins from his last six outings.
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8Lusaka48/100
Lusaka is a modest performer who has won twice from four runs at Bath and also has a solid record at today's 1m6f trip with five wins from ten starts. He arrives in reasonable form with four minor placings from his last six outings and has shown he handles good ground.
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9Two Plus Two46/100
Two Plus Two is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and is 3-13 at today's trip. He steps up from 1m4f today having shown consistent placed form at that distance recently.
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10The Craftymaster45/100
The Craftymaster is a limited performer who has been busy and consistent at a lower level this year with a string of wins and places. He has never been placed in three runs at Bath and has failed to win or place in five starts on good ground so far.
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11Virtual Hug44/100
Virtual Hug is a limited performer who has been busy this year and showed mixed form in recent starts. He has won over this trip in the past and also has a course success to his name from seven runs here, though his record on good ground is only modest.
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12Basilette44/100
Basilette is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form this year, including a win here from four runs at Bath. She has handled good ground well enough with two wins and seven places from 16 starts.
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13Buck Barrow44/100
Buck Barrow is a limited class performer who has been a regular at this track without winning, though he did manage a second here on his penultimate start. He steps up in trip today having looked stretched at 1m4f last time.
KTB verdict
Taritino is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with previous success at the track and trip, he arrives in reasonable nick, is suited by the prominent style in a race with plenty of early speed, and benefits from a yard and jockey with proven Bath records around the 12-13% mark. The selection should be there to pick up the pieces if the leaders go too hard. Main dangers are headed by the progressive Boilermaker, who sets the pace, the consistent and well-treated hold-up performer Percy Jones, and the in-form Belle Of Kt who drops back from 2m having won here on her only previous visit.
KTB Selection Taritino
This is the narrative read of the 3:15 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Noble Grace steps up to 1m6f for the first time today.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Bath among the principals?
Paddy Bradley has a 23% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 2.1 from 31 rides when riding for Mark Loughnane on Percy Jones.
Which runners are expected to make the running?
Lusaka, Two Plus Two and Boilermaker are all front-runners or tend to race on the pace.
How many wins has Belle Of Kt recorded in her last six starts?
Belle Of Kt has recorded five wins from her last six starts.
Which horse has won over the course and distance?
Taritino has won here and at today's trip.
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