3:35 Punchestown
This 0-60 handicap division at Punchestown over 7f features a field of 12 largely limited performers, most of whom arrive with lengthy losing runs or modest recent form. The KTB Fit ratings top out at just 62 for the selection, underlining the modest nature of the contest, while nearly all runners remain unproven on the prevailing ground. With no standout class or progressive profiles in evidence, the race looks likely to be decided by those best suited by the muddling pace and able to produce a late effort from a track that has not been overly kind to many of these connections.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner and several runners prefer to race prominently or in midfield. Those ridden close to the pace should be advantaged in a race where the tempo is unlikely to be strong early on. The key question will be whether any prominent runners can maintain their position or if the race will fall to a well-timed challenge from those held up, given the high number of hold-up types in the field.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mogwli KTB Selection62/100
Mogwli is a limited performer who has been out of form for a long time. He has placed once from a single run at this track and is dropping back to a trip where he has been placed without winning. The trainer has a 17% strike rate at Punchestown from 36 runs, in line with his overall record, while the jockey has a 33% strike rate from only nine rides at the course. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 13 in a race that may suit those coming from off the pace. Unproven on the ground, he carries an official rating of 40 and has recent form figures of 000844.
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2Tai Tam Bay59/100
Tai Tam Bay is a limited horse who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks vulnerable off an official rating of 55. Connections have a 9% strike rate at Punchestown from 43 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while the jockey has a 17% strike rate from just six rides here. This will be his first appearance at the track and he is unproven on the ground, adding unknowns to a profile that is already modest on balance. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he could be well positioned in a muddling tactical affair. His recent form reads 425907 and he carries an official rating of 55.
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3Free Solo52/100
Free Solo is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and showed ordinary form at best on his last few starts. He has won four times over today's 7f trip but is unproven on this ground and makes his first appearance at Punchestown. The trainer has a 0% strike rate here from 11 runs while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 28 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he may find himself in a suitable spot given the lack of an obvious pace-setter. Recent form figures are 592894 and he carries an official rating of 58.
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4Capolinea50/100
Capolinea is a limited horse who has shown very little in four starts and arrives with an official rating of 45. She drops back to 7f having been well held over longer trips, though the family record is solid with a half-sister to multiple winner Aramis Grey and the dam having produced five winners from six other runners. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Punchestown from seven runs while the jockey is 0-6 at the track. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could be suited by a race that develops tactically. Her recent form is 5006.
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5Movin And Groovin47/100
Movin And Groovin is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back to 7f where he has placed once without winning, though he remains unproven on the current ground. The trainer is 0% from 11 runs at Punchestown while the jockey records 8% from 12 rides here. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he may be able to take advantage of the muddling pace. Recent form figures read 5-1373 and he carries an official rating of 44.
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6Think About It45/100
Think About It is a limited performer who has shown little in 14 starts and arrives with a recent form line of 805709. He drops back to 7f where he has placed twice in three runs without winning, though he remains unproven on this ground. The trainer has no recorded runs at Punchestown while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate here from 14 rides. Usually held up, he carries an official rating of 47.
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7Staywitherjohnny45/100
Staywitherjohnny is a limited performer who has shown little spark in 12 starts and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back to an untried 7f trip while making a first appearance at Punchestown. The trainer's 3% strike rate here sits in line with their record elsewhere though the jockey has had only three rides at the track. He carries an official rating of 54.
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8Tariff45/100
Tariff is a limited performer who has shown mixed form across 12 starts with a recent record of 936121. He drops back to 7f having been placed once at the trip without winning and makes his first appearance at Punchestown. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at the course while the jockey has had only one ride here so the sample is too small to judge and the horse remains unproven on this ground. He is held up in running and carries an official rating of 58.
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9La Tulipe Noire44/100
La Tulipe Noire is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely troubles the judge. She drops back to 7f having won at the trip in the past though her recent efforts suggest she is struggling to find her best form. The trainer is 0 from 33 at Punchestown while the jockey has had only two rides here. She has course form of 10th on her only visit and carries an official rating of 58.
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10Micasso43/100
Micasso is a limited performer who has shown very little in 18 starts and arrives with a recent form line of 004076. He has been well beaten on his only previous visit to Punchestown and steps up in trip today having failed to place in seven attempts at this distance. The trainer's 3% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey remains winless from 10 rides here. He is usually held up and carries an official rating of 45.
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11Racing Royalty40/100
Racing Royalty is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. Dropping back to 7f is a positive as he has won at the trip before though he has never run here at Punchestown and is unproven on the ground. First-time headgear is now tried and he carries an official rating of 48.
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12Tempted Angel39/100
Tempted Angel is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date. She drops back to an untried 7f today which asks a fresh question, while being drawn widest of all in stall 12 of 12. The trainer records a 9% strike rate at Punchestown from 55 runs, in line with their overall figure, though the claiming jockey has only four rides here which is too small a sample to judge. She is usually held up and carries an official rating of 51.
KTB verdict
Mogwli is the KTB Selection in a race where the standard is modest and several runners bring lengthy losing runs. His placed effort on his only previous visit to Punchestown offers some encouragement, as does the 17% strike rate of his trainer at the track and the 33% record of the jockey from a small sample. The muddling tactical pace should suit his usual hold-up style, allowing him to produce his effort late. Main dangers include Tai Tam Bay, who may be prominent in a race lacking an obvious leader, and Free Solo, who has scored four times over this trip despite his limitations.
KTB Selection Mogwli
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:06am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Mogwli | 9/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Tai Tam Bay | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Free Solo | 5/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Capolinea | 12/1 | Dragon Bet, 12:00am |
| Movin And Groovin | 7/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Think About It | 40/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Staywitherjohnny | 25/1 | Bet Victor, 12:00am |
| Tariff | 5/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| La Tulipe Noire | 11/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Micasso | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:00am |
| Racing Royalty | 22/1 | Dragon Bet, 12:00am |
| Tempted Angel | 40/1 | Bet365, 12:00am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Mogwli the selection despite his long losing run?
Mogwli has placed once from a single run at this track and is dropping back to a trip where he has been placed without winning, while the trainer has a 17% strike rate at Punchestown and the jockey a 33% strike rate from nine rides.
How does the muddling pace shape affect the principals?
The muddling tactical pace should suit those ridden close to the pace or held up, with prominent runners such as Tai Tam Bay and Movin And Groovin potentially well placed while hold-up types like Mogwli and Capolinea can produce late efforts.
What does the family line say about Capolinea?
Half-sister to Aramis Grey (11 wins from 64 runs). The dam has had 6 other runners, 5 of them winners.
Which runners are making their first appearance at Punchestown?
Tai Tam Bay, Free Solo, Capolinea, Movin And Groovin, Think About It, Staywitherjohnny, Tariff, Racing Royalty and Tempted Angel have no course form on record.
Which horses are trying headgear for the first time?
Movin And Groovin, Staywitherjohnny and Racing Royalty are all wearing first-time headgear.
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