3:04 Nottingham
This Class 3 handicap over 1m2f50y at Nottingham on good to soft ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB numbers highlight a competitive but open-looking contest. Knights Charge heads the KTB Fit scores on 72 with recent progressive form, while the next four principals sit between 67 and 58, suggesting a race in which upwardly mobile three-year-olds and established handicappers are set to clash. Overall the KTB assessments point to a tactical affair in which course knowledge, trip suitability and ground versatility will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and is expected to produce a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, tend to be held up or race in mid-division, which could leave the race won or lost from off the pace in the straight. The key question is which horse can produce the most effective late effort once the tempo lifts, given the medium-confidence read on the shape.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Knights Charge KTB Selection72/100
Knights Charge is a useful performer who has won three of his four starts, including at this track on his penultimate run. He handles good to soft ground and has scored twice over today's trip already. The three-year-old is dropping in class from a mark of 93 and his recent form figures of 3-112 underline his upward trajectory. Roger Varian posts a 20% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.94 from 275 runs while Shane Foley boasts a 100% strike rate at the track from one ride with an A/E of 8. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 5 and remains the KTB Selection.
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2Sir Hannibal67/100
Sir Hannibal is a fair sort who has shown consistent placed form in his first three starts and already has a win on his record at today's trip. With only three career runs he remains open to improvement, though the going remains an unknown as he has no runs on good to soft. The yard has a strong 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a small sample with an A/E of 2.96 from five runs, and the trainer-jockey combination shows 6/24 (25%) with an A/E of 2.90 and +£60.50 LSP. Typically settling in midfield from stall 4, he carries an official rating of 89 and his recent form reads 33-1.
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3Boyfriend64/100
Boyfriend is a useful performer who has won on his only previous visit to Nottingham and has placed on good to soft ground. He has been competitive without winning at this trip and his recent form of 813234 shows he remains in decent order from an official rating of 93. Dropping in class, the five-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. Richard Hannon has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.9 from 354 runs while Pat Dobbs holds an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 254 rides.
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4Heyzoom60/100
Heyzoom is a useful performer who has already won at today's trip and showed strong form when second over it in the spring. Dropping back from 1m4f should suit after a disappointing effort last time, though the wide draw in stall 10 is a clear negative. His recent form reads 3-2148 and he carries an official rating of 90 while dropping in class. Owen Burrows continues to do well at Nottingham with a 25% strike rate and an A/E of 1.13 from 55 runs, and Oisin Murphy takes the ride as part of a 1/6 (17%) trainer-jockey record. Usually held up with high confidence in that style, he has no course form on record and remains unproven on good to soft.
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5Harvey58/100
Harvey is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick after a win and a third on his last two starts, with recent form figures of 26-931. He has already won at this trip and boasts a strong record on good to soft ground with two wins from three attempts. Carrying an official rating of 89 from stall 1, the four-year-old is ridden by Clifford Lee as part of a 4/61 (7%) trainer-jockey record with an A/E of 0.57 and -£20.76 LSP. Ian Williams holds a 10% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.87 from 271 runs.
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6Lady Roisia56/100
Lady Roisia is a fair performer who won on her only previous visit to Nottingham and has scored on good to soft ground. She has failed to land a blow in two starts at this trip though and the latest efforts in stronger company leave her with something to prove from an official rating of 88. Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.99 from 377 runs while Hector Crouch is on board as part of a 198/973 (20%) trainer-jockey record.
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7Cuff It55/100
Cuff It is a fair performer who showed useful form when winning at this trip on good to soft at Newmarket in July. Dropping back from 1m4f should suit but the subsequent heavy defeats in stronger company expose limitations from an official rating of 85 while dropping in class. Richard Spencer has a 13% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.04 from 48 runs and Saffie Osborne takes the ride as part of a 25/134 (19%) trainer-jockey record.
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8Port of London54/100
Port of London is a fair performer who has won at today's trip. Recent efforts have been a bit lacklustre after a promising start last season from an official rating of 88 while dropping in class. John & Thady Gosden have a 22% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.85 from 73 runs and William Buick is aboard as part of a 55/218 (25%) trainer-jockey record.
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9Let's Dream51/100
Let's Dream is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third in two runs here. He has won four times at today's trip from 15 attempts and has been competitive on good to soft ground, though without a win on it, while stepping up in class from an official rating of 86. Michael Bell holds a 12% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.89 from 617 runs and Callum Shepherd takes the ride.
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10Rogue Millions51/100
Rogue Millions is a useful performer on his best days but has been below form in three starts this year from an official rating of 91. He has already placed over course and distance on good to soft ground, though that was his only run here, and the step back up in trip looks a fair question. James Owen has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.67 from 27 runs and Luke Morris is on board.
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11Lucky Camino44/100
Lucky Camino is a fair performer who has run well without winning over this track, finishing second on both visits. He steps up in trip today having shown his best form at shorter so far while stepping up in class from an official rating of 82. Hugo Palmer's modest strike rate here tempers expectations and David Probert rides as part of a 20/161 (12%) trainer-jockey record.
KTB verdict
Knights Charge stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer with three wins from four starts, including success at this track and twice over the trip, he handles the ground, drops in class and is ridden by a jockey with a perfect record at Nottingham. The steadily-run race should suit his held-up style. Main dangers are Sir Hannibal, who remains open to further improvement with only three runs behind him, and Boyfriend, who knows this track and arrives in consistent form.
KTB Selection Knights Charge
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 14 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Knights Charge | 4/5 | LiveScore Bet |
| Sir Hannibal | 18/1 | Midnite |
| Harvey | 25/1 | Midnite |
| Lady Roisia | 16/1 | Midnite |
| Cuff It | 28/1 | Midnite |
| Let's Dream | 66/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 3:04 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won at Nottingham and twice over today's trip?
Knights Charge
What is the expected pace shape and its main implication?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays
Which runner is unproven on good to soft but open to improvement with only three career starts?
Sir Hannibal
Who has the widest draw among the principals and why is it a concern?
Heyzoom from stall 10, a clear negative
Which horse has the strongest record on good to soft ground among the principals?
Harvey with two wins from three attempts
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