5:12 Navan
This 5:12 Navan bumper over 1m7f165y on good ground brings together a field of fifteen unexposed four-year-olds in what looks a steadily-run, tactical affair. The KTB numbers are tightly bunched at the top, with two horses sharing the highest Fit Score of 55 and the next three separated by only five points, underlining the competitive nature of the race. With no obvious front-runner in the pace shape, being handy or timing a late run effectively will be key on a track where certain trainers and jockeys have strong recent records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical bumper where being handy should pay dividends. Several runners prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, which could make the race develop into a sprint for the line in the straight. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the held-up types will be able to pick their way through in a race that may not be truly run.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Double Helix KTB Selection55/100
Double Helix tops the KTB Fit ratings and is the selection. A 4-year-old by Rock Of Gibraltar, he has no course win on record but his trainer Charles Weld has an 18% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.91 from 17 runs. Jockey Mr P W Mullins brings a 27% strike rate at the track from 133 rides. The market read suggests he will be prominent in the SP in a field of 15. Overall the KTB assessment views him as the one to beat in a race where his connections and rating give him the edge.
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2Emergency Man55/100
Emergency Man shares the joint-highest KTB Fit Score of 55. This 4-year-old has shown he is competitive on good ground, having been placed on both starts on the surface without winning. His recent form figures read 23. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair. Trainer Paul Nolan has a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.74 from 433 runs, while the jockey Mr B T Stone has no record at the track. The combination of trainer and jockey shows 1 win from 9 rides at 11% with an A/E of 0.81.
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3Not A Whisper54/100
Not A Whisper is rated just behind the top two on KTB Fit at 54. The 4-year-old has been placed once from one run on good ground but is yet to win on the surface. His most recent form reads 4. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence in that assessment, he will need the race to unfold favourably given the expected tactical nature. Trainer Peter Fahey has a 6% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.7 from 144 runs, but jockey Miss A B O'Connor is operating at 15% with an A/E of 1.69 from 20 rides at the track.
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4Ellen Imlach51/100
Ellen Imlach is next on the KTB Fit ratings with a score of 51. A 4-year-old by Bathyrhon, she has no course win on record. The trainer and jockey combination of Gordon Elliott and Mr H C Swan has produced 64 wins from 346 rides at 18% with an A/E of 0.81 and a loss of £104.05. Elliott himself has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 from 1455 runs, while the jockey is 27% from 26 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.05. The market suggests she will be in the mix in terms of SP in a field of 15.
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5Walkwithmyfriend50/100
Walkwithmyfriend completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 50. This 4-year-old has recent form figures of 4-4. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, although that assessment comes with limited evidence and low confidence. His trainer J W Kenny has no Navan record from just one run overall at 0%. The jockey Mr S Cotter has no record at Navan. Unproven on good ground having had no runs on the surface, he will need to overcome that question mark in a race where his prominent run-style could be an advantage given the pace shape.
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6Thats It Ruby50/100
Thats It Ruby is rated 50 on KTB Fit. A 4-year-old by Poet's Word with an 11% overall win rate for the sire, the trainer has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.36 from 41 runs, but the jockey is 0% from 4 rides at the track with an A/E of 0. No course win on record.
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7Oneforbeano49/100
Oneforbeano has a KTB Fit of 49. The trainer and jockey combination shows 3 wins from 35 rides at 9% with an A/E of 0.81 and a loss of £16.67. Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.36 from 41 runs, while the jockey is 0% from 10 rides at the track. By Arctic Cosmos with an 8% overall win rate for the sire and no course win on record.
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8Sharbel47/100
Sharbel is rated 47 on KTB Fit with recent form of 6. Trainer and jockey combination of Peter Fahey and Mr Derek O'Connor shows 7 wins from 44 rides at 16% with an A/E of 0.97 and a loss of £3.90. Fahey is 6% at Navan with an A/E of 0.7, but the jockey has a 21% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.13 from 48 rides. Unproven on good ground.
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9Caprison45/100
Caprison has a KTB Fit of 45. The trainer and jockey combination shows 18 wins from 106 rides at 17% with an A/E of 0.90 and a profit of £7.55. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.82 from 482 runs, while the jockey is 8% from 48 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.78. No going data available and no course win on record.
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10Lanespark45/100
Lanespark is rated 45 on KTB Fit. Usually held up and producing his effort late with limited evidence and low confidence. The trainer and jockey combination shows 25 wins from 150 rides at 17% with an A/E of 0.91 and a loss of £23.58. Trainer A. Slattery is 7% at Navan with an A/E of 0.74, while the jockey is 10% from 10 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.73. Unproven on good ground and no course form.
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11Mister Moon43/100
Mister Moon has a KTB Fit of 43. The trainer and jockey combination is 0 from 8 at 0%. Trainer Liz Doyle has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.53 from 153 runs. By Sea Moon with a 12% overall win rate for the sire and no course win on record.
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12Hee Hiles42/100
Hee Hiles is rated 42 on KTB Fit with recent form of 7. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2 wins from 8 rides at 25%. Trainer T M Walsh has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.85 from 281 runs, but the jockey is 0% from 5 rides at the track. One run on good with no win or place and no course form.
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13El Paraiso42/100
El Paraiso has a KTB Fit of 42. The trainer and jockey combination of Henry de Bromhead and Mr J L Gleeson shows 21 wins from 78 rides at 27% with an A/E of 1.21 and a profit of £1.32. De Bromhead is 10% at Navan with an A/E of 0.66 from 406 runs, while the jockey is 6% from 18 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.5. By Crystal Ocean with a 12% overall win rate for the sire and no course win.
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14Sierra's Dream39/100
Sierra's Dream is rated 39 on KTB Fit with recent form of 4. Usually held up and producing his effort late with limited evidence and low confidence. Trainer T G McCourt has a 3% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.48 from 515 runs and the jockey is 0% from 3 rides at the track. One run on good with no win or place and no course form.
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15Rocky Alfonso38/100
Rocky Alfonso has the lowest KTB Fit at 38 with recent form of 4. The trainer and jockey combination shows 1 win from 23 rides at 4% with an A/E of 0.28 and a loss of £20.00. Trainer S Curling is 0% at Navan from 15 runs, and the jockey is also 0% from 10 rides at the track. Unproven on good ground and no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Double Helix is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit ratings alongside Emergency Man and brings the strongest combination of trainer and jockey figures at Navan in a race where those connections could prove decisive. The selection has the right profile to handle the steadily-run, tactical nature of the contest. His main dangers are Emergency Man, who has shown ability on good ground and can close late, and Not A Whisper, who is closely rated and has a jockey in good form at the track. Ellen Imlach and Walkwithmyfriend round out the principals and cannot be ruled out if the race develops to suit their styles.
KTB Selection Double Helix
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Double Helix | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Emergency Man | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Not A Whisper | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Ellen Imlach | 9/2 | BetTom |
| Walkwithmyfriend | 13/2 | BetTom |
| Thats It Ruby | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Oneforbeano | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Sharbel | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Caprison | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Lanespark | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Mister Moon | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Hee Hiles | 28/1 | BetTom |
| El Paraiso | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Sierra's Dream | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Rocky Alfonso | 7/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 5:12 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good ground among the leading contenders?
Walkwithmyfriend has had no runs on good ground.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Navan among the principals?
Charles Weld has an 18% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.91 from 17 runs for Double Helix.
How many of the field prefer to race held up?
Emergency Man, Not A Whisper, Lanespark and Sierra's Dream are all described as usually held up.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Navan in the field?
Mr P W Mullins and Mr H C Swan both have a 27% strike rate at Navan.
What is the expected race shape and its implication?
It lacks a leader so is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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