1:07 Navan
This 1m7f165y maiden hurdle at Navan on good ground features a field of 19, with the majority of runners unproven or modest on recent form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Minella Post on 66, followed by Dallas Star, En Or, O'Reilly and Penny Express all in the low-to-mid 50s, suggesting a race where experience and course knowledge could prove decisive. With limited established hurdling quality on show, the contest looks likely to be decided by which horse adapts best to the demands of racing over obstacles at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Dallas Star is the clear candidate to take up that role given its front-running style. With little to pressure it from the front, the runner is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those racing in hold-up positions to bridge in the closing stages. Most of the field, including the top-rated Minella Post, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, raising the key question of whether any closer can muster the necessary finishing kick to reel in a clear leader on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Minella Post KTB Selection66/100
Minella Post arrives with a KTB Fit score of 66 and is the clear selection. A 7-year-old with form figures of /0-FP2, it has shown enough to be competitive without winning, including a placed effort on its most recent start. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.61 from 199 runs, while the jockey boasts a 21% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.1 from 19 rides. It has placed once from two starts on good ground and was third on its sole previous visit to Navan. Usually held up and producing its effort late, it will need to time its challenge well if the leader is allowed an easy time upfront.
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2Dallas Star55/100
Dallas Star is rated second on KTB Fit at 55 and holds a strong chance of making all. The 5-year-old is a front-runner with high confidence in that run-style and could prove hard to catch given the shape of the race. It has form of /-, indicating limited but potentially promising prior efforts, and has been placed twice from seven starts on good ground. The trainer posts a 21% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.6 from 43 runs, though the jockey has managed only a 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.51 from 169 rides. Second on its only previous run at the course, it looks sure to go well if allowed to dictate from the front.
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3En Or53/100
En Or comes in with a KTB Fit of 53 and brings solid placed form. An 8-year-old with figures of /703-2, it finished second last time out and has two wins from eight starts on good ground along with two further placed efforts. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.77 from 644 runs, while the jockey records a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.58 from 50 rides. It has not been placed in two previous runs at the course, finishing sixth and fifth. Usually held up with high confidence in that approach, it will be looking to come from off the pace to challenge the likely leader.
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4O'Reilly52/100
O'Reilly is next on 52 Fit and has consistent placed form to its name. The 8-year-old has figures of 3320-6, showing it can be competitive at this level, and it has one win from six starts on good ground with two placed efforts. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.7 from 144 runs, though the jockey is yet to score at the track from three rides with an A/E of 0. It has no course form on record. A hold-up performer with high confidence, it will need to produce its effort at the right time against what looks a clear leader.
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5Penny Express52/100
Penny Express completes the principals on a KTB Fit of 52 and is now fitted with first-time headgear. A 6-year-old with form of -P4543, it has been competitive without winning and has placed five times from seven starts on good ground. The powerful trainer has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 from 1455 runs, and the jockey adds a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.08 from 70 rides. It has no course form on record. Usually held up with medium confidence, the headgear is now called upon to help it deliver a sharper effort from off the pace.
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6Ealu Tapa52/100
Ealu Tapa has a KTB Fit of 52 and form of 915, including a win. A hold-up performer with medium confidence, the trainer has a 6% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.7, while the jockey posts an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.07. It has one win from two starts on good ground.
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7Granny For Sport51/100
Granny For Sport is rated 51 on KTB Fit with a single run of 6 to its name. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.88, and the jockey records an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.76. It has one run on good ground without placing.
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8Ivatt51/100
Ivatt holds a KTB Fit of 51 after a debut run of 3. A hold-up type with medium confidence, the trainer has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9, and the jockey has a 23% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.94. It has one run on good ground without placing.
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9Saoirses Choice50/100
Saoirses Choice is on 50 Fit with form of 499U. A hold-up performer with medium confidence, the trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.04. It has two runs on good ground without placing.
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10Crystal Mariner48/100
Crystal Mariner has a KTB Fit of 48 and form of 22, showing placed efforts. A hold-up type with high confidence, now in first-time headgear, the trainer has a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.94, though the jockey is 0% from four rides here. It has placed three times from five starts on good ground.
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11Carrig Padraig47/100
Carrig Padraig is rated 47 on Fit with form of 6510-F. A hold-up performer with medium confidence, the trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.82, and the jockey records a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77. It has three runs on good ground without placing.
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12Hazem46/100
Hazem has a KTB Fit of 46 and form of /-. A hold-up type with limited evidence and low confidence, the trainer has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.78, and the jockey a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.69. It has no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface.
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13State Pension44/100
State Pension comes in on 44 Fit with form of 2135-. A hold-up performer with high confidence, the trainer has a 2% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.3, and the jockey a 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.59. It has no runs on good ground and is unproven on the going.
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14Kingston Silver42/100
Kingston Silver is rated 42 on KTB Fit with form of 09. A hold-up type with limited evidence and low confidence, the trainer has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.41, and the jockey a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.68. It has one run on good ground without placing.
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15Plus Or Minus42/100
Plus Or Minus holds a KTB Fit of 42 after a run of 5. A hold-up performer with high confidence, the trainer has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.64, and the jockey a 5% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76. It has four runs on good ground without placing and was 19th on its sole course visit.
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16Undertheinfluence42/100
Undertheinfluence is on 42 Fit with form of 896. A hold-up type with medium confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 77 runs, while the jockey posts a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.02. It has no runs on good ground and is unproven on the surface.
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17Down After Dark39/100
Down After Dark has a KTB Fit of 39 and form of U9. A hold-up performer with limited evidence and low confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0, and the jockey a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.56. It has one run on good ground without placing.
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18Fox Walk37/100
Fox Walk is rated 37 on Fit with form of P3-135. A hold-up type with medium confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 77 runs, and the jockey a 3% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.45. It has two runs on good ground without placing.
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19Our Sara37/100
Our Sara comes in last on 37 Fit with form of 74-98. A hold-up performer with limited evidence and low confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from eight runs, and the jockey is 0% from 11 rides here. It has one run on good ground without placing.
KTB verdict
Minella Post stands out on KTB Fit and is taken as the selection. It brings placed form, prior course experience at Navan and the benefit of a jockey who has performed well at the track, while its hold-up style should see it delivered late against what is likely to be a clear leader. Dallas Star is the obvious danger if allowed to dictate proceedings from the front in a race with an uncontested lead, and En Or, O'Reilly and Penny Express cannot be dismissed given their Fit ratings and placed efforts on good ground.
KTB Selection Minella Post
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:24 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Minella Post | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Dallas Star | 2/1 | BetMGM |
| En Or | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| O'Reilly | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Penny Express | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Ealu Tapa | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Granny For Sport | 200/1 | Bet365 |
| Ivatt | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Saoirses Choice | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Crystal Mariner | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Carrig Padraig | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Hazem | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| State Pension | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Kingston Silver | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| Plus Or Minus | 200/1 | Bet365 |
| Undertheinfluence | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Down After Dark | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| Fox Walk | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Our Sara | 100/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 1:07 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Dallas Star, given its front-running style with high confidence and the lone leader pace shape.
How many principals have previous placed form at Navan?
Two: Minella Post was third on its only run here, and Dallas Star was second on its only run here.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Penny Express and Crystal Mariner are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runners are unproven on good ground?
Hazem, State Pension and Undertheinfluence have no runs on good ground.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Navan among the principals?
James Smith with a 21% strike rate and A/E of 2.1 from 19 rides, riding Minella Post.
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