5:15 Windsor
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum trip of 5f21y at Windsor on good ground brings together a dozen limited performers in a race where the KTB Fit Scores sit in a narrow band between 54 and 30. The top five are separated by just five points on the KTB ratings, underlining the modest nature of the contest and the likelihood that recent consistency and race-shape factors will prove decisive. With a strong pace judged highly likely, the ability to produce a late effort from off the speed could be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with at least two habitual front-runners in the field, suggesting an honest gallop that could set the race up for those held up towards the rear. Dreambird Dolly and Roman Spring are both inclined to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure the leaders go hard early. The key question is whether the pace collapses in the final furlong, in which case the hold-up horses such as Washington Heir, My Mate Mackley and Cabeza De Llave will be best placed to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dreambird Dolly54/100
Dreambird Dolly is a limited performer who has shown little at Windsor in three previous runs, finishing no better than eighth. She did win over today's trip on good ground earlier in her career but has been largely out of form this season with recent figures of 102254. The trainer's 7% strike rate at the track from 187 runs adds little encouragement, while Rossa Ryan's 16% strike rate here is respectable but not a decisive plus. As a confirmed front-runner she is likely to set the pace from her high draw, yet the combination of track history and current form leaves her with questions to answer.
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2Washington Heir54/100
Washington Heir is a limited horse who has shown just flashes of ability in a modest career to date. He drops back to his winning trip having recorded a solid recent record on good ground, including a win from just one run on the surface. Silvestre De Sousa is a useful booking and the trainer's 13% strike rate when teaming up with him carries an A/E of 1.11. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace, though the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Windsor from 760 runs is well established.
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3My Mate Mackley KTB Selection54/100
My Mate Mackley is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form this year, with figures of 242132 underlining his reliability at this level. He has already won over today's 5f trip and arrives in solid recent order, having been placed on both of his two starts on good ground. Dropping in class looks a positive move and the hold-up style should play to the strong pace that is expected. The trainer holds a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Windsor while this is the horse's first run here, yet the overall profile suggests he can be competitive.
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4Lethal Blast50/100
Lethal Blast is a limited performer on balance and has been out of form for some time, with recent figures of 7734/0 offering little encouragement. He does have a win and a couple of placed efforts from five runs at Windsor and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, being placed twice from three attempts. Dropping back to 5f is an interesting move as he has won at the trip before, though his recent efforts raise doubts. From the widest draw he may end up racing prominently, but the overall profile suggests he needs to find improvement.
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5Cabeza De Llave49/100
Cabeza De Llave is a limited performer who has won twice at Windsor from 12 runs and also has a solid record at this trip with six wins from 45 starts. He has shown consistent form this year without winning, with figures of 625385, and handles good ground well enough having won once from ten attempts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace. The yard maintains a modest 9% strike rate here from a large sample of 194 runners, yet his course record and trip prowess keep him in the mix.
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6Bama Lama43/100
Bama Lama is a limited performer who has been below his best on both starts this year with figures of 476-66. He does have two wins from eight runs at Windsor and has won at this trip in the past, though his record on good ground is modest with only one success from 16 attempts.
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7Call Time42/100
Call Time is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely wins. He has placed on good ground and won over today's trip but showed little spark when seventh of nine over course and distance on his only run here.
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8Pacific Prince38/100
Pacific Prince has shown very little in 11 starts this year with a string of modest efforts and is rated as limited on class. The drop back to 5f is an unknown and he has failed to place from his only run on good ground.
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9Roman Spring36/100
Roman Spring is a limited performer who has been a regular at this track without winning, though he has been placed on three of his nine runs here. He has shown consistent form this year with a string of minor efforts and is proven at this trip.
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10Reporter35/100
Reporter is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He did win over this trip earlier in his career and has scored once from three runs at Windsor, but he is 0-5 on good ground.
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11Bated Breeze31/100
Bated Breeze is a limited performer on balance and has been out of form for some time. The drop back to 5f is a fresh question having been placed at the trip without winning, while he has never figured on good ground in five attempts.
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12Tilsworth Ony Ta30/100
Tilsworth Ony Ta is a limited horse who has been out of form for most of this year and arrives on the back of another string of poor efforts. He has placed a couple of times at Windsor and is 2 from 33 at this trip, with first-time headgear now reached for.
KTB verdict
My Mate Mackley is the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent placed form this year, has already won over today's 5f trip and arrives in solid recent order with figures of 242132, while his hold-up style should be favoured by the strong pace that is anticipated. The drop in class looks a positive and he has been competitive on good ground. Main dangers are Washington Heir, who drops to his winning trip with a useful jockey booked and a hold-up style, and Cabeza De Llave, who boasts two course wins and a solid record at the minimum trip.
KTB Selection My Mate Mackley
This is the narrative read of the 5:15 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Windsor results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set a strong pace?
Dreambird Dolly and Roman Spring are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runners are suited by the expected strong pace?
Washington Heir, My Mate Mackley, Cabeza De Llave, Bama Lama, Call Time, Pacific Prince, Reporter, Bated Breeze and Tilsworth Ony Ta are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the best recent form figures among the principals?
My Mate Mackley has the most consistent recent form with figures of 242132.
Which trainers have 0% strike rates at Windsor in the data supplied?
Adam Kirby has a 0% strike rate at Windsor from eight runs, Andy Irvine has a 0% strike rate from four runs, and James Bennett has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Tilsworth Ony Ta is wearing first-time headgear.
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