7:00 Kempton (AW)
A competitive Class 4 handicap over 7f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of 13 where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Spy Kingdom on a mark of 79, closely followed by Dr Strangelove, Marengo Storm, Chalk Mountain and Blue Prince all rated in the low-to-mid 80s. With the KTB numbers highlighting several course winners and performers with solid placed form at the track, the race looks set to revolve around how the uncontested pace will play out against the majority of hold-up types.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Spy Kingdom's front-running style means he is likely to bowl along uncontested from his wide draw. Few others want to go forward, with the remainder of the field largely made up of held-up runners who will be looking to produce their effort late. The key question is whether the clear leader can maintain his advantage on this surface or if the closers, several of them proven at Kempton, can reel him in over the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Spy Kingdom KTB Selection61/100
Spy Kingdom is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below that level in three of his last four starts and was pulled up on his most recent outing. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip earlier in his career, though he is unproven on standard to slow going and makes his first appearance at Kempton. The trainer has an 18% strike rate from 11 runs at the track. As a front-runner he is set to make the running or race prominently, which in a race with a lone-leader pace shape could hand him an uncontested advantage from draw 12. The combination of Charles Bishop in the saddle and the trainer's healthy 18% strike rate at Kempton gives him a solid platform.
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2Dr Strangelove60/100
Dr Strangelove is a fair performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from four starts at Kempton. Consistent rather than progressive of late with placed efforts at this trip but no wins, and the drop back from a mile looks a neutral move at best. Trainer records a 12% strike-rate at the track from 26 runs while the jockey has limited experience here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, which fits the profile of most of his rivals in a race where the leader may get an easy time. With a win on standard to slow ground from three starts and course form in his favour, he remains a solid each-way contender from draw 9.
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3Marengo Storm60/100
Marengo Storm is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and on this surface. Has taken two runs at Kempton already including a victory here, while the yard’s 13 percent strike rate from 658 runs at the track offers some encouragement. Steps back up to 7f today after recent efforts over 6f. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader could steal a march. His record of one win from two on standard to slow ground adds to his appeal, and the booking of Finley Marsh for Richard Hughes keeps him firmly in the mix from a low draw.
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4Chalk Mountain58/100
Chalk Mountain is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, including three wins from 16 runs, and he has won seven times over today's 7f trip from 28 attempts. He has been consistent enough on standard to slow ground with three wins and eight places from 14 starts, though his recent form of 274634 shows him mixing modest efforts with the occasional better run. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Kempton from eight runs while the jockey's record at the track is not supplied. A held-up runner with high confidence in that style, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead up front but his course-and-distance prowess cannot be ignored.
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5Blue Prince58/100
Blue Prince is a fair handicapper who has been placed three times from four runs at Kempton, including a second on his most recent visit here. He acts on standard to slow going and has won at this trip, though his recent form has been patchy and he remains winless on this surface. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution. Drawn in stall one, he is another who is usually held up and will be produced late, hoping the leader comes back to him. His placed course form and the presence of Rossa Ryan in the saddle keep him as one of the more interesting runners in the field.
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6Do Bronxs57/100
Do Bronxs is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning, placing twice at this trip from six attempts. First run at Kempton and unproven on standard to slow going adds some unknowns. Trainer records a 10% strike rate here from 193 runs. A held-up type dropping in class, he has plenty to prove on his first visit to the track.
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7Philanthropist55/100
Philanthropist is a fair handicapper who has been consistent without winning lately. He has shown up well at this track with a second and a fourth from three runs and holds solid form on standard to slow ground with a win and a place from three starts. The trip suits as he has three wins from 16 attempts at 7f. Usually held up, he is dropping in class and has enough placed course form to warrant respect.
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8Enricher51/100
Enricher is a fair 3-year-old whose recent efforts have been poor, finishing ninth on both his last two starts after a promising maiden win last year. He steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him. The Muir & Grassick yard have an 11% strike rate from 153 runs at Kempton. Held up and unproven on the surface, he has a bit to find on recent form.
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9Siwa Oasis47/100
Siwa Oasis is a fair 3-year-old who has shown useful placed form here when second on his only previous visit to Kempton. He has already won once at today's 7f trip from just two attempts and now drops back in distance after his last run over a mile. The Charles Hills yard posts an 11% strike-rate at this track from a big sample while Jason Watson has a solid record here too. A held-up performer with placed course form, he enters calculations.
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10Waistcoat44/100
Waistcoat is a fair performer who has been placed three times over this trip without winning. Has solid placed form here at Kempton from six runs but remains winless on this surface and at this track. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the venue adds a note of caution. Another held-up runner, his placed efforts at the course keep him in the picture at a suitable trip.
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11Musical Angel44/100
Musical Angel is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on AW this year but lacks a recent win. She has run just once at Kempton, finishing fifth, and her sole start on standard to slow ground also brought no win or place. The yard records an 8% strike rate here from a large sample while she is proven at today's 7f trip. A front-runner from the widest draw, she could offer some early pace but has plenty to overcome.
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12Rage of Thunder43/100
Rage of Thunder is a fair performer who has been placed on all three starts at Kempton without winning. He has shown some competitiveness on standard to slow ground but steps up in trip today having failed to win in three previous tries at 7f. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds a negative. Held up and with solid placed course form, he still needs to prove himself at the distance.
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13Pints In Peace37/100
Pints In Peace is a modest performer who has shown occasional placed form on this track but has been largely out of form this year with a string of six defeats. The drop back to 7f looks a positive as he has won twice at the trip from ten attempts, though his recent efforts at longer distances have been poor. Trainer Jim & Suzi Best have a modest 4% strike rate from 51 runs here while jockey William Cox has no standout record at the track. Stepping up in class, he has a lot to find.
KTB verdict
Spy Kingdom is the KTB Selection and shapes as the one to beat if he can rediscover his best form on the drop back to 7f. His front-running style in a race with a lone-leader pace shape gives him every chance of an easy lead that could prove difficult to peg back, while the trainer's strong 18% strike rate at Kempton adds further substance to his claims. The main dangers are Dr Strangelove and Marengo Storm, both course winners with solid placed form at the track, while Chalk Mountain's course-and-distance record and Blue Prince's placed efforts here mean they cannot be dismissed. The race is likely to be decided by whether the leader gets away or the closers can close the gap in the straight.
KTB Selection Spy Kingdom
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 14 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Prince | 10/3 | Virgin Bet |
| Rage of Thunder | 5/1 | Virgin Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Spy Kingdom, whose front-running style in a lone-leader pace shape suggests he will make the running with little to pressure him.
How many course winners are in the field?
At least four: Dr Strangelove, Marengo Storm, Chalk Mountain and several others with placed course form.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Kempton with Spy Kingdom's handler?
18% strike rate at Kempton (AW) with an A/E of 1.72 from 11 runs.
Which runners are proven at 7f on this surface?
Marengo Storm has won over the trip on this surface, while Chalk Mountain has seven wins at 7f and three on standard to slow.
Who has the strongest trainer record at the track among the principals?
Adam Kirby with an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 11 runs for Spy Kingdom.
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