What is David M O'Brien's strike rate?

David M O'Brien has won 58 of 980 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David M O'Brien do best at?

Tramore by strike rate: 21 wins from 198 runners (10.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David M O'Brien?

Sean Flanagan, with 238 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (8.8%).

Is David M O'Brien in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is David M O'Brien's Fair A/E?

0.85, from 980 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David M O'Brien

980 runners in the lifetime window · 103 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago 98% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

58–980

Wins / Runs

5.9%

Strike rate

n=980

229 (23%)

Placed

0.85

Fair A/E

n=980 · 0.68 incl. margin

−468.84

£1 level stake

n=980 at SP · −47.8%

£862k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85).

Deterministic profile computed from 980 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul 15.6% when favourite Sean Flanagan: 8.8% from 238 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Tramore (10.6%, n=198), clear of the yard's 5.9% baseline. It is weakest at Punchestown (0% over 37 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 0% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −135.13 to a £1 stake over 276 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sean Flanagan rides 24% of the entries and edges the yard's average (8.8% vs 5.9%, A/E 1.11) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the E.B.F. T.a. Morris Memorial Mares Chase at Clonmel (Nov 2013, £22,750). The stable star of the record: Minx Tiara (IRE) — 7 wins from 46 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.8%−0.1

n=155 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −83.92

New recruits · first run for the yard

9.1%+3.2

n=22 · A/E 2.22 · £1 −2.67

Debutants · first career start

6%+0.1

n=83 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −33.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−5.9

n=48 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −48.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

8.7%+2.8

n=23 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +9.00

When favourite

15.6%

n=45 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −27.25

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.7%−1.2

n=276 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −135.13

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.7%−0.2

n=35 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −13.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 14.7% vs 5.9% · n=75

On last-time-out winners 12.3% vs 5.9% · n=57

At Tramore 10.6% vs 5.9% · n=198

With first-time headgear 0% vs 5.9% · n=48

At Punchestown 0% vs 5.9% · n=37

At Gowran Park 0% vs 5.9% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 566 29 5.1% −328.22

Chase 289 21 7.3% −96.12

NH Flat 105 8 7.6% −24.50

Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 379 27 7.1% −114.33

Soft 277 13 4.7% −150.22

Heavy 162 11 6.8% −84.00

Good to Soft 98 6 6.1% −64.29

Good to Firm 57 1 1.8% −49.00

Firm 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Tramore 198 21 10.6% −43.80

Clonmel 85 5 5.9% −46.50

Thurles 70 7 10% −24.50

Downpatrick 66 3 4.5% −21.50

Limerick 66 6 9.1% +20.88

Cork 53 3 5.7% −20.00

Wexford 48 5 10.4% −6.50

Punchestown 37 0 0% −37.00

Gowran Park 34 0 0% −34.00

Kilbeggan 33 1 3% −29.25

Fairyhouse 33 1 3% −18.00

Killarney 31 1 3.2% −26.67

Ballinrobe 29 1 3.4% −23.00

Listowel 27 1 3.7% −19.00

Tipperary 26 0 0% −26.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 35 2 5.7% −13.67

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 55 9 16.4% 0.64 −24.75

2nd–3rd fav 153 29 19% 1.41 +17.41

4th–6th fav 280 13 4.6% 0.70 −129.50

7th+ in betting 492 7 1.4% 0.46 −332.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m5f – 3m 349 21 6% −114.87

2m1f – 2m4f 310 15 4.8% −212.22

1m5f – 2m 294 21 7.1% −129.75

Over 3m 27 1 3.7% −12.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 29 0 0% −29.00

2009 37 0 0% −37.00

2010 26 1 3.8% −11.00

2011 54 4 7.4% −27.50

2012 66 3 4.5% −42.00

2013 70 3 4.3% −38.00

2014 45 3 6.7% −9.00

2015 44 5 11.4% −10.50

2016 67 2 3% −53.50

2017 54 3 5.6% −5.00

2018 43 5 11.6% −9.00

2019 49 6 12.2% −5.17

2020 52 2 3.8% −37.67

2021 77 8 10.4% −4.58

2022 58 2 3.4% −52.50

2023 61 1 1.6% −38.00

2024 60 5 8.3% −29.17

2025 37 1 2.7% −33.25

2026 51 4 7.8% +3.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 462 28 6.1% −189.96

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 346 15 4.3% −192.95

11-13 runners 233 15 6.4% −71.22

8-10 runners 166 18 10.8% −23.50

17+ runners 160 2 1.3% −137.50

5-7 runners 64 7 10.9% −34.17

2-4 runners 11 1 9.1% −9.50

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

88.2% completed · 855 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 289 81.3% 10 5 39 0 0

Hurdle 566 91.7% 11 4 30 0 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Double Windsor (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast 78 5 18 22 Apr 24

Minx Tiara (IRE) 46 7 22 31 Jul 24

Cusp Of Carabelli (IRE) 46 5 17 3 Jun 23

Icelip (IRE)from John E Kiely 40 4 10 19 Aug 18

Roman Parish (IRE) 37 0 8 15 Jun 26

Elegant Dan (IRE) 37 2 7 30 Aug 24

Ballinahow Lady (IRE)from Greg Broderick 34 5 14 19 Feb 14

Fastey (IRE) 34 1 8 5 Sep 13

Is Herself About (IRE) 31 4 7 3 Jan 16

Quirt Evans (IRE)then Mark Fahey 24 2 8 6 Jul 23

Grinn (IRE)from J S Bolger · then David Rees 23 0 2 3 Jun 23

Mic Drop (IRE) 22 3 9 31 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 103 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from K F O'Brien (2) and Sabrina J Harty (2); 47 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Tim Vaughan (3) and Seamus Larkin (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

38210487604147

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSean Flanagan

24% of all rides
8.8% SR · A/E 1.11

RiderRWSR£1

Sean Flanagan 238 21 8.8% −74.04

John Cullen 89 6 6.7% −30.50

J J Slevin 48 4 8.3% −3.67

Ryan Treacy 41 1 2.4% −35.50

J R Barry 30 0 0% −30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£881k

Prize money

2021

Best season · 8 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ballinahow Lady (IRE) — E.B.F. T.a. Morris Memorial Mares Chase (grade 3) Clonmel · Nov 2013 · Grade 3

£22,750

Minx Tiara (IRE) — Killarney Towers Hotel & Leisure Centre Mares Hurdle (Listed) Killarney · May 2024 · Listed

£15,340

Ballinahow Lady (IRE) — Miceal Fitzgibon Memorial E.B.F. Mares Novice Chase Thurles · Feb 2013

£14,625

Notable horses

Minx Tiara (IRE) Double Windsor (IRE) Cusp Of Carabelli (IRE) Ballinahow Lady (IRE) Icelip (IRE) Is Herself About (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dansant (GB) 6% · 5–84

Progeny have won 7.9% of 545 runs since 2014 (64 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.8% from 110.

Windsor Knot (IRE) 6.4% · 5–78

Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,319 runs since 2011 (81 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 109. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 127.

Flemensfirth (USA) 7.2% · 5–69

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,285 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Getaway (GER) 11.1% · 6–54

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,971 runs since 2016 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Doyen (IRE) 14.3% · 7–49

Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,374 runs since 2009 (605 horses).

Beneficial (GB) 10.9% · 5–46

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,051 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,051 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 January 2005 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Racing Post Steeplechase (Grade 2)Class 1 · 19.5f · Good · 5 ran 4th 12/1

18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) French Adventure (FR)J: Josh Williamson PwC Mares Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 4th 50/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 12th 20/1

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Co-Op Superstores Handicap Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 7/2

04 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Bossing It (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Gortnavogue Ltd. T/A Seamus Weldon Handicap Hurdle17f · Good · 16 ran 12th 25/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) French Adventure (FR)J: Josh Williamson Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 10th 80/1

30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Brenda Anderson Memorial Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran 7th 12/1

30 Sep 26 Sligo (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Steeplechase17.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 11/2

11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Bossing It (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase17f · Yielding · 16 ran UR 14/1

11 Sep 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Mike O'Connor Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Steeplechase23f · Yielding · 16 ran 11th 15/2

31 Aug 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Tolka Row (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan AJC Group Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 10 ran PU 16/1

16 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Bossing It (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Heinz Pollmeier Memorial Handicap Steeplechase15.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 100/30F

14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Tolka Row (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Comeragh Veterinary Kilmackthomas Handicap Hurdle21f · Good · 10 ran 8th 13/2

14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Josh Williamson I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase22f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 13/2

07 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh SIS Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 13 ran 6th 3/1F

23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Set The Tone (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Cottage Autism Network Handicap Hurdle (Div I)24f · Good · 13 ran 1st 5/1

17 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Mic Drop (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally BOYLE Sports Daily Money Back Meeting Handicap Steeplechase17f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 3rd 9/4F

14 Jul 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Tolka Row (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 13 ran 1st 33/1

04 Jul 26 Bellewstown Tolka Row (IRE)J: Cian Quirke QuinnBet Bellewstown Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 15 ran PU 10/1

03 Jul 26 Wexford Bossing It (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Clearwater Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)17f · Good · 14 ran 8th 11/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 11 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 11 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David M O'Brien's strike rate?: David M O'Brien has won 58 of 980 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David M O'Brien do best at?: Tramore by strike rate: 21 wins from 198 runners (10.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David M O'Brien?: Sean Flanagan, with 238 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (8.8%).
Is David M O'Brien in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is David M O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 0.85, from 980 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.