Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.29).
Deterministic profile computed from 131 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 29 Oct 2026
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 0.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−0.8
n=30 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −30.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−0.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−0.8
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−0.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−0.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−0.8
n=70 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −70.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−0.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 0.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m3.1% vs 0.8% · n=32
Off a 15-30-day break2.9% vs 0.8% · n=35
With claiming riders up0% vs 0.8% · n=70 · A/E 0.00
With a new jockey booking0% vs 0.8% · n=61 · A/E 0.00
On Soft going0% vs 0.8% · n=52 · A/E 0.00
In Hurdle races1.5% vs 0.8% · n=68 · A/E 0.64
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6811.5%−51.00
Chase3100%−31.00
Flat2300%−23.00
NH Flat900%−9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5200%−52.00
Heavy2600%−26.00
Good2500%−25.00
Good to Soft1915.3%−2.00
Standard (AW)900%−9.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Fairyhouse1800%−18.00
Punchestown1300%−13.00
Navan1200%−12.00
Naas1218.3%+5.00
Dundalk (AW)800%−8.00
Wexford800%−8.00
Down Royal700%−7.00
Sligo600%−6.00
Tramore500%−5.00
Gowran Park500%−5.00
Cork400%−4.00
Tipperary400%−4.00
Leopardstown400%−4.00
Kilbeggan300%−3.00
Roscommon300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 6100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav400%0.00−4.00
4th–6th fav1900%0.00−19.00
7th+ in betting10710.9%0.60−90.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4000%−40.00
1m5f – 2m3213.1%−15.00
2m5f – 3m3200%−32.00
1m2f – 1m4f1000%−10.00
6f – 7f500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
Over 3m400%−4.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20224312.3%−26.00
20233500%−35.00
20242500%−25.00
20251400%−14.00
20261400%−14.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7011.4%−53.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners5500%−55.00
17+ runners3313%−16.00
11-13 runners2500%−25.00
8-10 runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners700%−7.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 26 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 26 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive; 20 had their first archived run for this yard.
8 have since run for another yard, most often for Dr Richard Newland (2) and W McCreery (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
007000000000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,096 runs since 2008 (139 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.1% from 126. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 16.8% from 244. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.
Milan (GB)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,860 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 440 · newest first
The latest 50 of 440 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 November 2016 to 30 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Francis J Flood's strike rate?
Francis J Flood has won 1 of 131 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 0.8% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Francis J Flood's Fair A/E?
0.29, from 131 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Francis J Flood·SR 0.8%·A/E 0.29
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy