Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−3.1
n=35 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −35.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.1
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.1
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.1%−1.0
n=47 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −21.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 56.7% vs 3.1% · n=30
In Class 40% vs 3.1% · n=45
With a new jockey booking1.9% vs 3.1% · n=52 · A/E 1.43
In Hurdle races3.1% vs 3.1% · n=65 · A/E 1.57
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6523.1%−32.00
NH Flat1915.3%+7.00
Flat1000%−10.00
Chase200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2813.6%−21.00
Good2328.7%+29.00
Good to Soft2200%−22.00
Heavy1100%−11.00
Good to Firm800%−8.00
Standard (AW)400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Uttoxeter1600%−16.00
Southwell12216.7%+21.00
Warwick1100%−11.00
Bangor-on-Dee700%−7.00
Worcester6116.7%+20.00
Towcester500%−5.00
Leicester500%−5.00
Stratford400%−4.00
Ludlow400%−4.00
Haydock400%−4.00
Hereford400%−4.00
Huntingdon400%−4.00
Wolverhampton (AW)300%−3.00
Doncaster300%−3.00
Chepstow200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 44500%−45.00
Class 53026.7%+3.00
Class 61616.3%+10.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav2150%6.58+5.00
4th–6th fav1516.7%1.96+11.00
7th+ in betting7811.3%1.11−52.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m4412.3%−18.00
2m5f – 3m2613.8%+0.00
2m1f – 2m4f1815.6%−11.00
1m2f – 1m4f700%−7.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081000%−10.00
20091800%−18.00
20101200%−12.00
2011200%−2.00
2012100%−1.00
20133133.3%+23.00
2014800%−8.00
2015700%−7.00
2016900%−9.00
2017600%−6.00
2018600%−6.00
20198225%+25.00
2021100%−1.00
2023100%−1.00
2024100%−1.00
2025300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2727.4%+6.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners2500%−25.00
11-13 runners2328.7%+10.00
8-10 runners2300%−23.00
5-7 runners1715.9%+9.00
17+ runners500%−5.00
2-4 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 17 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 16 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00140025·00000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Just Beth (GB) — Club 16-24 Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Jan 2007 · Class 2
£16,910
Just Beth (GB) — betdirectuk.com Handicap Hurdle Bangor-on-Dee · Dec 2006 · Class 2
£10,084
Sundance Boy (GB) — Toalsbet World Lotteries Handicap Hurdle Southwell · Mar 2019 · Class 5
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,895 runs since 2010 (165 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.9% from 227. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5% from 278.
Revoque (IRE)0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 8% of 1,805 runs since 2008 (202 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 265. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5% from 100.
Bollin Eric (GB)0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,319 runs since 2008 (115 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.7% from 126. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.6% from 257. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 101.
Classic Cliche (IRE)0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 8% of 2,328 runs since 2008 (231 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.1% from 244.
Erhaab (USA)10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 8% of 1,060 runs since 2008 (86 horses).
Cloudings (IRE)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,888 runs since 2008 (310 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 816.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 158 · newest first
The latest 50 of 158 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 27 March 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Giuseppe Fierro's strike rate?
Giuseppe Fierro has won 3 of 96 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.1% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Giuseppe Fierro's Fair A/E?
1.74, from 96 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Giuseppe Fierro·SR 3.1%·A/E 1.74
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