What is Toby Eley's strike rate?

Toby Eley has won 27 of 455 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Toby Eley do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 45 rides (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Toby Eley ride most for?

Steph Hollinshead, with 92 rides since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.2%).

What is Toby Eley's Fair A/E?

0.86, from 453 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Toby Eley

455 rides in the lifetime window · 243 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Jun 2020 99% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

27–455

Wins / Runs

5.9%

Strike rate

n=455

89 (20%)

Placed

0.86

Fair A/E

n=453 · 0.72 incl. margin

−193.12

£1 level stake

n=455 at SP · −42.4%

£215k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.86).

Deterministic profile computed from 455 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Steph Hollinshead: 2.2% from 92

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (13.3%, n=45), clear of the rider's 5.9% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.7% (n=74, Fair A/E 0.72). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 5.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −219.62 to a £1 stake over 420 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Steph Hollinshead supplied 20% of the rides and sits below the rider's average (2.2% vs 5.9%, A/E 0.38). The rider also read well off a 0-7-day break (15.4%, n=39) and on Good to Firm going (9.6%, n=73).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.9%−1.0

n=243 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −114.17

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.3%+8.4

n=28 · A/E 0.96 · £1 +9.88

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.7%−3.2

n=74 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −31.00

When favourite

31.3%

n=16 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +2.05

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

5.2%−0.7

n=420 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −219.62

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.7%−1.2

n=64 · A/E 0.94 · £1 +7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Adam West 19% vs 5.9% · n=42

Off a 0-7-day break 15.4% vs 5.9% · n=39

With Gay Kelleway 14.9% vs 5.9% · n=47

At Southwell (AW) 13.3% vs 5.9% · n=45

With Steph Hollinshead 2.2% vs 5.9% · n=92

On Good to Firm going 9.6% vs 5.9% · n=73

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 452 27 6% −190.12

Chase 2 0 0% −2.00

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 235 14 6% −120.75

Good to Firm 73 7 9.6% −8.58

Good 50 1 2% −16.00

Soft 39 3 7.7% −20.12

Good to Soft 38 1 2.6% −12.00

Heavy 14 1 7.1% −9.67

Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 113 5 4.4% −85.00

Southwell (AW) 45 6 13.3% −1.75

Lingfield (AW) 35 1 2.9% −26.00

Nottingham 30 3 10% −11.12

Leicester 24 1 4.2% −3.00

Bath 18 0 0% −18.00

Newcastle (AW) 17 2 11.8% +17.00

Chelmsford City (AW) 16 0 0% −16.00

Brighton 14 1 7.1% −10.75

Redcar 12 0 0% −12.00

Haydock 11 0 0% −11.00

Windsor 11 1 9.1% +10.00

Newbury 9 1 11.1% +25.00

Kempton (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00

Yarmouth 9 1 11.1% −7.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 245 12 4.9% −149.58

Class 5 146 13 8.9% −10.54

Class 4 45 1 2.2% −40.00

Class 3 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 2 5 0 0% −5.00

Class 7 4 1 25% +22.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 21 6 28.6% 1.19 +1.05

2nd–3rd fav 53 9 17% 1.08 −7.67

4th–6th fav 143 8 5.6% 0.72 −49.50

7th+ in betting 238 4 1.7% 0.56 −137.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

The Golden Cue (GB) 16 2 4 16 Oct 19

Robero (GB) 13 4 7 10 Mar 20

Peggie Sue (GB) 12 4 5 16 Oct 19

Snooker Jim (GB) 12 0 4 8 Oct 19

Tizwotitiz (GB) 11 0 2 5 Mar 20

Couldn't Could She (GB) 8 2 3 15 Sep 19

Global Hope (IRE) 7 1 3 21 Jan 20

Splash Of Verve (IRE) 7 1 4 6 Jul 19

Billiebrookedit (IRE) 7 0 2 23 Apr 19

Roy's Legacy (GB) 6 0 0 29 Sep 18

Medieval Bishop (IRE) 6 1 1 13 Jan 18

Viva Verglas (IRE) 6 0 1 3 Jan 18

The 60 most-raced of 243 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

64901223842415

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSteph Hollinshead

20% of all rides
2.2% SR · A/E 0.38

TrainerRWSR£1

Steph Hollinshead 92 2 2.2% −66.00

Mark Loughnane 52 1 1.9% −45.50

Gay Kelleway 47 7 14.9% −13.08

Adam West 42 8 19% +35.13

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→

Archived wins

£215k

Prize money

2019

Best season · 13 wins

Peggie Sue (GB) — Sophies Choice Handicap Nottingham · May 2019 · Class 4

£6,469

Peggie Sue (GB) — 188Bet Live Casino Handicap Sandown · Aug 2018 · Class 5

£5,175

Robero (GB) — Like Sun Racing On Facebook Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Dec 2018 · Class 5

£4,787

Notable horses

Robero (GB) Peggie Sue (GB) The Golden Cue (GB) Couldn't Could She (GB) Regular Income (IRE) Splash Of Verve (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Zebedee (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2008 (435 horses).

Captain Gerrard (IRE) 25% · 4–16

Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,052 runs since 2008 (175 horses).

Fast Company (IRE) 18.8% · 3–16

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,588 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 557. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,862 runs since 2008 (948 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.

Piccolo (GB) 33.3% · 5–15

Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.

Pastoral Pursuits (GB) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,215 runs since 2008 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 455 · newest first

The latest 50 of 455 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 4 September 2014 to 30 June 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Jun 20 Leicester Heartstar (GB)T: John Mackie Bodie Hodges Foundation HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 5th 11/2

27 Jun 20 Newcastle (AW) Deolali (GB)T: Stella Barclay Betfair Weighed In Podcast HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 25/1

24 Jun 20 Hamilton Marietta Robusti (IRE)T: Stella Barclay Indigo Unified Communications HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 3rd 12/1

21 Jun 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Deconso (GB)T: Christopher Kellett Trysull HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 8th 14/1

10 Mar 20 Southwell (AW) Robero (GB)T: Gay Kelleway Betway HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 17/2

10 Mar 20 Southwell (AW) Decision Maker (IRE)T: Roy Bowring Betway Casino HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 4/1

10 Mar 20 Southwell (AW) White Lion (GB)T: Robyn Brisland Betway Novice StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 100/1

06 Mar 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Robsdelight (IRE)T: Gay Kelleway Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 20/1

05 Mar 20 Southwell (AW) Tizwotitiz (GB)T: Steph Hollinshead Betway Classified StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 12/1

03 Mar 20 Southwell (AW) Cape Greco (USA)T: Gay Kelleway Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 4/1

29 Feb 20 Southwell (AW) Irish Minister (USA)T: David Thompson Heed Your Hunch At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 16/1

25 Feb 20 Lingfield (AW) Grandstand (IRE)T: Richard Price Bombardier Golden Beer Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 40/1

24 Feb 20 Southwell (AW) Deeds Not Words (IRE)T: Robyn Brisland BetYourWay At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 10/1

21 Feb 20 Lingfield (AW) Baileys Freedom (GB)T: John Bridger Ladbrokes Where The Nation Plays HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 16/1

15 Feb 20 Newcastle (AW) Deolali (GB)T: Stella Barclay Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 7/1

12 Feb 20 Southwell (AW) Deeds Not Words (IRE)T: Robyn Brisland Betway Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 3rd 16/1

12 Feb 20 Southwell (AW) Glacier Fox (GB)T: Michael Chapman BetYourWay At Betway HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 150/1

11 Feb 20 Newcastle (AW) Bawaader (IRE)T: David Thompson Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 3rd 11/2

11 Feb 20 Newcastle (AW) Coup De Gold (IRE)T: David Thompson Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 5 · 16.5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 25/1

10 Feb 20 Wolverhampton (AW) Robero (GB)T: Gay Kelleway Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 2nd 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Toby Eley's strike rate?: Toby Eley has won 27 of 455 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Toby Eley do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 45 rides (13.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Toby Eley ride most for?: Steph Hollinshead, with 92 rides since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.2%).
What is Toby Eley's Fair A/E?: 0.86, from 453 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.