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Trainer profile

John Dawson

61 runners in the lifetime window · 22 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Runners today
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
7–61
Wins / Runs
11.5%
Strike rate
n=61
15 (25%)
Placed
1.32
Fair A/E
n=61 · 1.11 incl. margin
−1.00
£1 level stake
n=61 at SP · −1.6%
£94,454
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
12.2%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.1%−0.4
n=18 · A/E 1.70 · £1 +14.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.5
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.5
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
66.7%
n=3 · A/E 2.38 · £1 +3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−11.5
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
50%+38.5
n=4 · A/E 15.97 · £1 +30.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 11.5% · n=33
In Hurdle races 6.7% vs 11.5% · n=30
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 30 2 6.7% −4.00
NH Flat 15 4 26.7% +8.00
Flat 10 0 0% −10.00
Chase 6 1 16.7% +5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 27 3 11.1% −8.75
Good to Soft 14 1 7.1% +7.00
Soft 13 2 15.4% −5.25
Heavy 3 1 33.3% +10.00
Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle 7 0 0% −7.00
Carlisle 6 1 16.7% −2.00
Kelso 4 0 0% −4.00
Wetherby 4 1 25% −0.25
Cartmel 4 0 0% −4.00
Sedgefield 3 0 0% −3.00
Market Rasen 3 2 66.7% +10.25
Uttoxeter 3 0 0% −3.00
Catterick 3 0 0% −3.00
Hexham 3 0 0% −3.00
Cheltenham 3 1 33.3% +18.00
Worcester 2 0 0% −2.00
Aintree 2 0 0% −2.00
Musselburgh 2 0 0% −2.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 28 4 14.3% −7.00
Class 4 14 1 7.1% −9.00
Class 6 11 0 0% −11.00
Class 1 4 2 50% +30.00
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 2 40% 1.56 +1.00
2nd–3rd fav 14 2 14.3% 0.93 −5.00
4th–6th fav 16 2 12.5% 1.61 +8.00
7th+ in betting 26 1 3.8% 1.64 −5.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
77.8% completed · 36 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 6 66.7% 0 0 2 0 0
Hurdle 30 80% 0 3 3 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Joto (GB)from Paul Collins 9 0 2 22 Oct 26
Shinealight (IRE) 7 0 1 13 Jun 26
Caledonian Dream (IRE)from Alan Brown 6 0 0 26 Oct 26
Cap Ricochet (GB)from Paul Collins 5 2 2 17 Oct 26
Don't Tell Dougie (GB) 3 0 0 1 Nov 26
Kingofthefrontier (GB) 3 2 2 23 Oct 26
Whin Cover (GB)from Paul Collins 3 0 1 17 Oct 26
The Shanachie (IRE) 3 0 0 4 Apr 26
A Likeable Rogue (IRE) 3 2 2 7 Feb 26
Mickey Miller (IRE) 3 0 2 27 May 19
Rip It Up (GB) 2 0 1 27 Oct 26
Sievier (GB)from Jack Channon 2 0 0 24 Aug 26
All 22 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 22 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul Collins (5); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 7
Only 7 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0250005000023050
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Brian Hughes 12 5 41.7% +22.00
Conor O'Farrell 8 2 25% +18.00
Mr John Dawson 5 0 0% −5.00
Charlie Maggs 5 0 0% −5.00
Alice Stevens 5 0 0% −5.00
Benjamin Macey 3 0 0% −3.00
William Pyle 3 0 0% −3.00
Danny McMenamin 3 0 0% −3.00
Jamie Hamilton 2 0 0% −2.00
Jonny Peate 2 0 0% −2.00
Miss Charlotte Crane 1 0 0% −1.00
Miss Leah Naughton 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→
7
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£94,454
Prize money
2026
Best season · 5 wins
Kingofthefrontier (GB) — Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle Race(grade 2) (registered As The Sharp Novices' Hurdle Race) (gbb Race) Cheltenham · Oct 2026 · Grade 2
£47,552
A Likeable Rogue (IRE) — William Hill Racing Bet Builder Beacons (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Listed) (GBB Race) Newbury · Feb 2026 · Listed
£14,238
Kingofthefrontier (GB) — Summer Fun At Southwell Racecourse 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Southwell · Jun 2026 · Class 4
£5,446
Notable horses
Cap Ricochet (GB) A Likeable Rogue (IRE) Kingofthefrontier (GB) Capricciose (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dragon Dancer (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 9.1% of 574 runs since 2013 (80 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.6% from 159.
Capri (IRE) 42.9% · 3–7
Progeny have won 11% of 127 runs since 2024 (34 horses).
Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.3% of 5,859 runs since 2013 (682 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 336. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.2% from 249.
Without Parole (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10% of 680 runs since 2024 (87 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 19.4% from 139. Weakest on Good going: 6.6% from 166.
Frontiersman (GB) 40% · 2–5
Progeny have won 16% of 375 runs since 2022 (67 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19.2% from 151.
Sixties Icon (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.9% of 5,675 runs since 2012 (338 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 264. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.4% from 1,334.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 61 · newest first

The latest 50 of 61 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 May 2017 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Carlisle To Chase A Dream (GB)J: Conor O'Farrell Pricedup Bog From 10am Castletown Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 3/1J
01 Nov 26 Carlisle Don't Tell Dougie (GB)J: Conor O'Farrell Pricedup Now With Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 5th 100/1
27 Oct 26 Newcastle Rip It Up (GB)J: Brian Hughes Breeders' Cup On Sky Sports Racing Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 7/1
26 Oct 26 Leicester Caledonian Dream (IRE)J: Miss Leah Naughton Aja Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Riders With 3 Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)Class 6 · 12f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 28/1
23 Oct 26 Cheltenham Kingofthefrontier (GB)J: Conor O'Farrell Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle Race(grade 2) (registered As The Sharp Novices' Hurdle Race) (gbb Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 20/1
22 Oct 26 Carlisle Joto (GB)J: Alice Stevens Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div II)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran PU 7/1
19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Caledonian Dream (IRE)J: William Pyle bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 20/1
17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Brian Hughes Pertemps Network Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good · 5 ran 1st 5/4F
17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Whin Cover (GB)J: Conor O'Farrell Pertemps Network Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 11/1
08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Cap Ricochet (GB)J: Brian Hughes Malton Marquees Novices' Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good · 6 ran 1st 10/1
02 Oct 26 Hexham Whin Cover (GB)J: Conor O'Farrell David Clarke Memorial 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 10/1
22 Sep 26 Beverley Caledonian Dream (IRE)J: William Pyle Churchill Tyres Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 5th 17/2
14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Joto (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 5th 20/1
14 Sep 26 Thirsk Caledonian Dream (IRE)J: William Pyle Constant Security Services Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good · 12 ran 6th 40/1
24 Aug 26 Musselburgh Sievier (GB)J: Connor Beasley Watch On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 13th 125/1
24 Aug 26 Musselburgh Caledonian Dream (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Watch On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 10th 66/1
23 Aug 26 Worcester Joto (GB)J: Brian Hughes Neu-Servo Supports Larsen's Pride Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 10th 9/1
23 Aug 26 Worcester Whin Cover (GB)J: Conor O'Farrell Neu-Servo Neigh Bad Repairs Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 5th 40/1
25 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Sievier (GB)J: Jonny Peate John And Ross Greenhill Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 9th 125/1
13 Jun 26 Uttoxeter Shinealight (IRE)J: Benjamin Macey Noble Minds Counselling Services Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 17 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · to 17 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is John Dawson's strike rate?
John Dawson has won 7 of 61 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.5% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is John Dawson in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 7 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is John Dawson's Fair A/E?
1.32, from 61 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).