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Trainer profile

Kelly Morgan

36 runners in the last 5 seasons · 17 individual horses
As at 24 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 158 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2022
5–36
Wins / Runs
13.9%
Strike rate
n=36
9 (25%)
Placed
0.82
Fair A/E
n=36 · 0.73 incl. margin
−24.20
£1 level stake
n=36 at SP · −67.2%
£40,472
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
22.2%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.3%−8.6
n=19 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −16.25
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.7%−6.2
n=13 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −10.25
Debutants · first career start
25%+11.1
n=4 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −2.20
First-time headgear · true-first definition
20%+6.1
n=5 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −3.20
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−13.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
50%
n=6 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +0.05
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.8%+0.9
n=27 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −17.20

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 35 5 14.3% −23.20
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 23 5 21.7% −11.20
Good to Soft 11 0 0% −11.00
Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00
Soft 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham 9 2 22.2% −5.20
Stratford 6 0 0% −6.00
Fakenham 6 1 16.7% −3.25
Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00
Leicester 3 1 33.3% +0.00
Aintree 3 0 0% −3.00
Ludlow 2 1 50% +0.25
Perth 1 0 0% −1.00
Hexham 1 0 0% −1.00
Huntingdon 1 0 0% −1.00
Kelso 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 15 2 13.3% −9.25
Class 4 11 3 27.3% −4.95
Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 3 50% 1.14 +0.05
2nd–3rd fav 14 2 14.3% 0.78 −8.25
4th–6th fav 10 0 0% 0.00 −10.00
7th+ in betting 6 0 0% 0.00 −6.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
68.6% completed · 35 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 35 68.6% 1 2 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Go Go Geronimo (GB)from G T H Bailey 5 0 0 2 May 25
Music Drive (FR)from Gordon Elliott 4 1 2 9 Apr 26
Santon (IRE)from Alan King 4 1 2 2 Jun 23
On Lovers Walk (IRE)from Ross O'Sullivan 3 1 1 19 May 26
Potters Party (IRE)from Henry De Bromhead 3 1 1 13 May 26
Bothwell Bridge (IRE)from Nicky Henderson 3 0 1 3 Apr 25
Precious Bounty (IRE)from T Ellis 2 0 0 7 May 24
Runwiththetide (IRE)from Dan Skelton 2 0 0 2 Jun 23
Due Reward (IRE)from Charlie Longsdon · then L J Morgan 2 0 0 2 Jun 23
Police Academy (IRE)from Fergal O'Brien 1 0 1 1 May 26
Bride Rovers Abu (IRE) 1 0 0 1 Apr 25
Dusart (IRE)from Nicky Henderson 1 0 0 20 Jan 25
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 17 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dan Skelton (2) and Nicky Henderson (2); 4 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
03303080······
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Miss Ellie Callwood 14 1 7.1% −11.75
Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts 8 0 0% −8.00
Miss Meisha Micklewright 7 2 28.6% −1.25
Alice Stevens 4 1 25% −2.20
Miss Gina Andrews 2 1 50% +0.00
Mr Paddy Barlow 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
17
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£161k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 6 wins
Top Wood (FR) — Randox Health Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (National Course) Aintree · Apr 2019 · Class 2
£26,685
Timetochill (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Henrietta Knight Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) Huntingdon · Dec 2018 · Listed
£11,390
Music Drive (FR) — Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · May 2025 · Class 4
£5,133
Notable horses
Timetochill (IRE) Extreme Appeal (IRE) Decade Player (IRE) Red Indian (GB) Top Wood (FR) Ubetya (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Great Pretender (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 13.1% of 3,537 runs since 2008 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 151.
Muhtathir (GB) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,711 runs since 2008 (494 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.9% from 967.
Scorpion (IRE) 25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 9.2% of 6,313 runs since 2008 (609 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 141.
Mahler (GB) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,842 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Stowaway (GB) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 11.3% of 7,190 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 124.
Walk In The Park (IRE) 33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 13.3% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (691 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 108 · newest first

The latest 50 of 108 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 May 2011 to 19 May 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 May 26 Huntingdon On Lovers Walk (IRE)J: Miss Meisha Micklewright Tattersalls Online Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 17/2
13 May 26 Perth Potters Party (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood 125 Years Of Bruce Farms 'Grassroots' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 5/4F
01 May 26 Warwick Police Academy (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Natural Green Creative Spaces Mares' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 7/4F
01 May 26 Warwick On Lovers Walk (IRE)J: Miss Meisha Micklewright Connolly's Red Mills Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 10/1
22 Apr 26 Ludlow Potters Party (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Eddie Mapp Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 1st 5/4F
13 Apr 26 Fakenham On Lovers Walk (IRE)J: Miss Meisha Micklewright Sandcliff Cromer 'Grassroots' Maiden Hunters' Chase (For The Turner Trophy)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 1st 7/4
13 Apr 26 Hexham Potters Party (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Pointing Pointers Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran UR 11/2
09 Apr 26 Aintree Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 10th 22/1
13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran 3rd 33/1
02 May 25 Cheltenham Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Brooklands Watches Golden Miller Chronograph Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 32.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 6/1
02 May 25 Cheltenham Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Gina Andrews Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 26.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st EvensF
03 Apr 25 Aintree Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran 18th 150/1
03 Apr 25 Aintree Bothwell Bridge (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran 17th 200/1
01 Apr 25 Fakenham Bride Rovers Abu (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Turner Trophy 'Grassroots' Maiden Hunters' Chase (For The Turner Trophy)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 6 ran F 11/4
14 Mar 25 Fakenham Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Pointing Pointers Queens Cup 'Grassroots' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 2nd 8/13F
14 Mar 25 Cheltenham Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood St. James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 4th 33/1
25 Feb 25 Leicester Bothwell Bridge (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Cottesmore Open Hunters' ChaseClass 3 · 22.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 3rd 18/1
20 Jan 25 Warwick Dusart (IRE)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Willoughby De Broke Open Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 12/1
31 May 24 Stratford Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Pointtopoint.co.uk Champion Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 27.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 7/1
26 May 24 Kelso Bothwell Bridge (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Borders Growers & Distillers Corinthian Spirit 'Grassroots' Hunters' Chase Series FinalClass 3 · 26f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 11/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kelly Morgan's strike rate?
Kelly Morgan has won 5 of 36 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Kelly Morgan's Fair A/E?
0.82, from 36 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 24 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).