Skip to content
Trainer profile

Kelly Morgan

108 runners in the lifetime window · 31 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 177 days ago 94% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
17–108
Wins / Runs
15.7%
Strike rate
n=108
31 (29%)
Placed
1.19
Fair A/E
n=107 · 1.03 incl. margin
−9.00
£1 level stake
n=108 at SP · −8.3%
£161k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
22.2%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.19). With a claiming rider up the record reads 18% (57 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 108 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 17.5%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 6.5% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.55). The yard also reads well on Good going (20.4%, n=49) and over 1m5f – 2m (19.4%, n=31). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 6.5% over 31 runners, 9.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Chase races: Fair A/E 0.85 across 71 runners (12.7% strike, −30.95 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Randox Health Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase at Aintree (Apr 2019, £26,685).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.5%−9.2
n=46 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −33.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
8.3%−7.4
n=24 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −16.75
Debutants · first career start
28.6%+12.9
n=7 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +9.80
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%−5.7
n=10 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −8.20
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−15.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=12 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −4.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
17.5%+1.8
n=57 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −0.45
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.1%−6.6
n=11 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a break of 180+ days 6.5% vs 15.7% · n=31
With a new jockey booking 20.3% vs 15.7% · n=59
On Good going 20.4% vs 15.7% · n=49
Over 2m5f – 3m 11.8% vs 15.7% · n=34
In Chase races 12.7% vs 15.7% · n=71
Over 1m5f – 2m 19.4% vs 15.7% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Chase 71 9 12.7% −30.95
Hurdle 24 4 16.7% −8.55
Flat 7 2 28.6% +9.50
NH Flat 6 2 33.3% +21.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 49 10 20.4% +3.05
Good to Soft 28 2 7.1% −14.43
Soft 15 2 13.3% +2.88
Heavy 9 2 22.2% +2.00
Standard (AW) 5 1 20% −0.50
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cheltenham 17 2 11.8% −13.20
Fakenham 9 1 11.1% −6.25
Stratford 9 1 11.1% −5.25
Aintree 7 1 14.3% +8.00
Market Rasen 6 1 16.7% −3.12
Uttoxeter 6 1 16.7% +0.50
Huntingdon 6 1 16.7% +6.00
Doncaster 4 1 25% +8.00
Kelso 4 1 25% +11.00
Southwell 3 0 0% −3.00
Leicester 3 1 33.3% +0.00
Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00
Hexham 3 0 0% −3.00
Ascot 2 0 0% −2.00
Haydock 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 32 5 15.6% +5.25
Class 4 29 7 24.1% −7.50
Class 2 14 1 7.1% +1.00
Class 6 13 3 23.1% +0.25
Class 1 11 1 9.1% +1.00
Class 3 8 0 0% −8.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 16 6 37.5% 1.05 −0.13
2nd–3rd fav 31 7 22.6% 1.30 −1.87
4th–6th fav 29 3 10.3% 1.41 +10.00
7th+ in betting 32 1 3.1% 0.98 −17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
77.9% completed · 95 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 71 71.8% 1 3 16 0 0
Hurdle 24 95.8% 0 0 1 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Extreme Appeal (IRE)from Warren Greatrex 12 2 2 17 Dec 19
Timetochill (IRE)then Fergal O'Brien 10 4 5 28 Oct 20
Red Indian (GB)from Ben Pauling 8 1 1 19 Mar 21
Top Wood (FR)from David Pipe 7 1 4 13 Mar 20
Decade Player (IRE)from P J Rothwell 7 2 3 9 Jun 17
Cuban Sun (GB)from James Given · then Sue Smith 6 0 2 4 Sep 20
Go Go Geronimo (GB)from G T H Bailey 5 0 0 2 May 25
Ubetya (IRE)then L J Morgan 5 1 3 30 Oct 20
Teeton Power (GB)from Miss Liz Harris 5 1 2 2 Oct 19
Deise Bless (IRE) 5 0 0 1 Sep 19
Music Drive (FR)from Gordon Elliott 4 1 2 9 Apr 26
Santon (IRE)from Alan King 4 1 2 2 Jun 23
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 31 horses listed, 24 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dan Skelton (2) and Nicky Henderson (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard, most often for L J Morgan (2); 26 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1410528160020004413
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Tabitha Worsley 15 2 13.3% +15.00
Miss Ellie Callwood 14 1 7.1% −11.75
Adam Wedge 13 2 15.4% −5.62
Ross Chapman 10 2 20% +6.50
Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts 8 0 0% −8.00
Miss Meisha Micklewright 7 2 28.6% −1.25
Alice Stevens 4 1 25% −2.20
Ben Jones 4 1 25% +2.50
Miss Gina Andrews 4 1 25% −2.00
Mr Dale Peters 4 2 50% +4.75
Richie McLernon 3 0 0% −3.00
David Noonan 3 1 33.3% −1.43
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
17
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£161k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 6 wins
Top Wood (FR) — Randox Health Foxhunters' Open Hunters' Chase (National Course) Aintree · Apr 2019 · Class 2
£26,685
Timetochill (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Henrietta Knight Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) Huntingdon · Dec 2018 · Listed
£11,390
Music Drive (FR) — Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' Chase Cheltenham · May 2025 · Class 4
£5,133
Notable horses
Timetochill (IRE) Extreme Appeal (IRE) Decade Player (IRE) Red Indian (GB) Top Wood (FR) Ubetya (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Scorpion (IRE) 26.3% · 5–19
Progeny have won 9.2% of 6,326 runs since 2011 (609 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.1% from 142.
Excellent Art (GB) 16.7% · 2–12
Progeny have won 9.9% of 4,555 runs since 2011 (298 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 451.
Sulamani (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,247 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.
Gamut (IRE) 28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,839 runs since 2010 (172 horses).
Kotky Bleu (FR) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 13.4% of 216 runs since 2010 (27 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 9.5% from 105.
Havana Gold (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,064 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 108 · newest first

The latest 50 of 108 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 May 2011 to 19 May 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 May 26 Huntingdon On Lovers Walk (IRE)J: Miss Meisha Micklewright Tattersalls Online Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 17/2
13 May 26 Perth Potters Party (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood 125 Years Of Bruce Farms 'Grassroots' Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 5/4F
01 May 26 Warwick Police Academy (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Natural Green Creative Spaces Mares' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 7/4F
01 May 26 Warwick On Lovers Walk (IRE)J: Miss Meisha Micklewright Connolly's Red Mills Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 10/1
22 Apr 26 Ludlow Potters Party (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Eddie Mapp Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 1st 5/4F
13 Apr 26 Fakenham On Lovers Walk (IRE)J: Miss Meisha Micklewright Sandcliff Cromer 'Grassroots' Maiden Hunters' Chase (For The Turner Trophy)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 1st 7/4
13 Apr 26 Hexham Potters Party (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Pointing Pointers Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran UR 11/2
09 Apr 26 Aintree Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 10th 22/1
13 Mar 26 Cheltenham Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Princess Royal Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 23 ran 3rd 33/1
02 May 25 Cheltenham Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Brooklands Watches Golden Miller Chronograph Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 32.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 6/1
02 May 25 Cheltenham Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Gina Andrews Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' ChaseClass 4 · 26.5f · Good · 5 ran 1st EvensF
03 Apr 25 Aintree Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran 18th 150/1
03 Apr 25 Aintree Bothwell Bridge (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Randox Foxhunters' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 29 ran 17th 200/1
01 Apr 25 Fakenham Bride Rovers Abu (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Turner Trophy 'Grassroots' Maiden Hunters' Chase (For The Turner Trophy)Class 5 · 24f · Good · 6 ran F 11/4
14 Mar 25 Fakenham Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Pointing Pointers Queens Cup 'Grassroots' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 2nd 8/13F
14 Mar 25 Cheltenham Music Drive (FR)J: Miss Ellie Callwood St. James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 24 ran 4th 33/1
25 Feb 25 Leicester Bothwell Bridge (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Cottesmore Open Hunters' ChaseClass 3 · 22.5f · Heavy · 7 ran 3rd 18/1
20 Jan 25 Warwick Dusart (IRE)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Willoughby De Broke Open Hunters' ChaseClass 6 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 12/1
31 May 24 Stratford Go Go Geronimo (GB)J: Mr Tom Chatfeild-Roberts Pointtopoint.co.uk Champion Novices' Hunters' ChaseClass 2 · 27.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 7/1
26 May 24 Kelso Bothwell Bridge (IRE)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Borders Growers & Distillers Corinthian Spirit 'Grassroots' Hunters' Chase Series FinalClass 3 · 26f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 11/4

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kelly Morgan's strike rate?
Kelly Morgan has won 17 of 108 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.7% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Kelly Morgan's Fair A/E?
1.19, from 107 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).