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Trainer profile

Liam Casey

307 runners in the lifetime window · 24 individual horses
As at 25 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago 94% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
8–307
Wins / Runs
2.6%
Strike rate
n=307
51 (17%)
Placed
0.47
Fair A/E
n=306 · 0.37 incl. margin
−214.50
£1 level stake
n=307 at SP · −69.9%
£133k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.47).

Deterministic profile computed from 307 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 25 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Sean Flanagan: 3.3% from 61
The read

The record is strongest at Thurles (5.7%, n=35), clear of the yard's 2.6% baseline. Sean Flanagan rides 20% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (3.3%, A/E 0.51). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Chase races: Fair A/E 0.67 across 98 runners (5.1% strike, −42.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.5%−1.1
n=65 · A/E 0.31 · £1 −50.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.6
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.6
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
0%
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.4%−0.2
n=85 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −65.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 2.6% · n=114
In Chase races 5.1% vs 2.6% · n=98
At Thurles 5.7% vs 2.6% · n=35
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 2.6% · n=40
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 2.6% · n=38
At Punchestown 0% vs 2.6% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 189 3 1.6% −152.50
Chase 98 5 5.1% −42.00
Flat 17 0 0% −17.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 110 2 1.8% −80.00
Good 83 3 3.6% −53.00
Heavy 67 3 4.5% −34.50
Good to Soft 38 0 0% −38.00
Good to Firm 6 0 0% −6.00
Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel 52 2 3.8% −22.00
Thurles 35 2 5.7% −17.50
Punchestown 31 0 0% −31.00
Tramore 27 1 3.7% −22.00
Cork 24 0 0% −24.00
Limerick 21 1 4.8% −6.00
Wexford 19 0 0% −19.00
Tipperary 15 0 0% −15.00
Kilbeggan 12 0 0% −12.00
Ballinrobe 10 0 0% −10.00
Killarney 10 0 0% −10.00
Gowran Park 8 1 12.5% +9.00
Fairyhouse 8 0 0% −8.00
Naas 7 0 0% −7.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 13 0 0% 0.00 −13.00
2nd–3rd fav 40 2 5% 0.41 −30.50
4th–6th fav 73 3 4.1% 0.62 −37.00
7th+ in betting 181 3 1.7% 0.58 −134.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
91.3% completed · 287 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 98 87.8% 4 2 6 0 0
Hurdle 189 93.1% 2 1 10 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Betterthanalright (IRE) 54 4 11 6 Aug 19
Omega Springs (IRE)then Dai Williams 30 1 7 23 May 18
Rule Of June (IRE) 26 1 7 23 May 24
Mist On The Bog (IRE) 23 0 5 6 Nov 25
Field Exhibition (IRE)then Christian Williams 20 0 1 8 Jun 18
Asithappens (IRE) 18 0 3 25 Apr 16
Reponse Finale (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast · then Gavin Cromwell 15 0 2 5 Jun 26
Apples In Winter (IRE) 15 0 2 24 Jul 25
Early Arrival (IRE)then James M Barcoe 15 0 4 17 Nov 22
Carole Rose (IRE)from M F Morris 15 2 4 16 Oct 18
Imperial Tune (IRE) 14 0 3 15 Jun 26
Dawn Escape (IRE) 12 0 1 22 Aug 25
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 24 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 21 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0104330054005
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSean Flanagan
20% of all rides
3.3% SR · A/E 0.51
RiderRWSR£1
Sean Flanagan 61 2 3.3% −39.00
Phillip Enright 31 0 0% −31.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
8
Archived wins
£133k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 2 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Carole Rose (IRE) — myITdepartment.ie Handicap Chase Roscommon · May 2017
£10,164
Carole Rose (IRE) — Follow Limerick Racecourse On Facebook Mares Handicap Chase Limerick · Apr 2017
£7,392
Betterthanalright (IRE) — Littleton Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Thurles · Feb 2012
£6,900
Notable horses
Betterthanalright (IRE) Carole Rose (IRE) Omega Springs (IRE) Rule Of June (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Cloudings (IRE) 4.8% · 4–83
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,885 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 410. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Imperial Monarch (IRE) 0% · 0–64
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,584 runs since 2008 (172 horses).
Great Exhibition (USA) 1.9% · 1–54
Progeny have won 7.1% of 452 runs since 2008 (29 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.9% from 153.
Rule of Law (USA) 2.4% · 1–41
Progeny have won 5.8% of 310 runs since 2008 (35 horses).
Inns Of Court (IRE) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,230 runs since 2008 (232 horses).
Mahler (GB) 13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,847 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 25 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 310 · newest first

The latest 50 of 310 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 May 2007 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Plushy (IRE)J: Alan Casey Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap6f · Yielding · 21 ran 20th 125/1
03 Jul 26 Bellewstown Plushy (IRE)J: Alan Casey Eco Bullet Handicap (0-60)5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 50/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Imperial Tune (IRE)J: Alan Casey Follow Kilbeggan On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)24.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran F 20/1
05 Jun 26 Fairyhouse Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Dino Day 8th July Handicap (0-60)6f · Good · 17 ran 4th 9/1
28 May 26 Fairyhouse Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey 5 Euro General Admission Next Friday Handicap (0-60)6f · Good · 18 ran 8th 66/1
10 May 26 Cork Imperial Tune (IRE)J: Alan Casey Bet With Tote.ie On Racing & Sports Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24.5f · Good · 21 ran 11th 50/1
24 Apr 26 Cork Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Follow Cork Racecourse On Social Media Handicap (0-60)8f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 17th 25/1
26 Nov 25 Dundalk (AW) Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 33/1
06 Nov 25 Clonmel Mist On The Bog (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Prior Park Service Station Clonmel Handicap Chase (0-100)17f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 25/1
05 Nov 25 Dundalk (AW) Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 33/1
29 Oct 25 Dundalk (AW) Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60)7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 50/1
08 Oct 25 Navan Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Handicap (0-60)6f · Yielding · 17 ran 12th 22/1
30 Sep 25 Cork Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Mallow Handicap (0-60)6f · Yielding · 10 ran 3rd 66/1
16 Sep 25 Punchestown Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey See You On The 14th & 15th October Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)9.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 12th 80/1
02 Sep 25 Gowran Park Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Apprentice Handicap (0-60)8f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 14th 28/1
22 Aug 25 Kilbeggan Dawn Escape (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan New Forest Estate & Golf Club Handicap Chase (0-100)26f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 7th 7/1
17 Aug 25 Tramore Mist On The Bog (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Heinz Pollmeier Memorial Handicap Chase (0-100)15.5f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 5/1
09 Aug 25 Kilbeggan Dawn Escape (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Smiddys Pub Handicap Chase25.5f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 4th 5/1
08 Aug 25 Tipperary Reponse Finale (IRE)J: Alan Casey Don Moloney Plumbing & Heating Ltd. Handicap (0-60)7.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 12/1
25 Jul 25 Kilbeggan Mist On The Bog (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Bretland Construction Edenderry Handicap Chase (0-100)20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 4th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Liam Casey's strike rate?
Liam Casey has won 8 of 307 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.6% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Liam Casey do best at?
Thurles by strike rate: 2 wins from 35 runners (5.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Liam Casey?
Sean Flanagan, with 61 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (3.3%).
Is Liam Casey in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Liam Casey's Fair A/E?
0.47, from 306 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 25 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).