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Trainer profile

Lorcan Joseph Donnelly

174 runners in the lifetime window · 30 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2016 95% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
8–174
Wins / Runs
4.6%
Strike rate
n=174
27 (16%)
Placed
0.94
Fair A/E
n=174 · 0.70 incl. margin
−71.12
£1 level stake
n=174 at SP · −40.9%
£78,688
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94).

Deterministic profile computed from 174 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
The read

The yard also read well on Good going (8.8%, n=57) and over 1m5f – 2m (8.3%, n=36). The stable star of the record was Old Theatre Royal (IRE) — 5 wins from 27 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−2.0
n=38 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −30.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.6
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.6
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.6
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −1.12
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.1%−1.5
n=97 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −40.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good going 8.8% vs 4.6% · n=57
Over 1m5f – 2m 8.3% vs 4.6% · n=36
In Hurdle races 7.3% vs 4.6% · n=82
With a new jockey booking 2.4% vs 4.6% · n=84
Over 2m5f – 3m 2.1% vs 4.6% · n=47
With claiming riders up 3.1% vs 4.6% · n=97 · A/E 0.79
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 82 6 7.3% −12.12
Chase 65 2 3.1% −32.00
NH Flat 19 0 0% −19.00
Flat 8 0 0% −8.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 57 5 8.8% −14.12
Soft 56 2 3.6% −22.00
Heavy 26 0 0% −26.00
Good to Firm 24 0 0% −24.00
Good to Soft 6 1 16.7% +20.00
Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wexford 17 1 5.9% −7.00
Punchestown 17 1 5.9% +9.00
Tramore 14 1 7.1% −6.00
Gowran Park 14 0 0% −14.00
Clonmel 11 1 9.1% +10.00
Kilbeggan 10 0 0% −10.00
Thurles 10 0 0% −10.00
Fairyhouse 9 0 0% −9.00
Downpatrick 9 0 0% −9.00
Down Royal 7 0 0% −7.00
Sligo 7 0 0% −7.00
Cork 6 0 0% −6.00
Tipperary 6 0 0% −6.00
Listowel 6 0 0% −6.00
Limerick 5 1 20% +2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 1 12.5% 0.74 −5.12
2nd–3rd fav 12 1 8.3% 0.70 −5.00
4th–6th fav 37 2 5.4% 0.86 −19.00
7th+ in betting 117 4 3.4% 1.18 −42.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
76.2% completed · 147 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 65 72.3% 4 5 8 1 0
Hurdle 82 79.3% 2 1 13 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
West Ship Master (IRE)then Daniel Miley 36 1 10 8 Dec 11
Old Theatre Royal (IRE)from Norman Doolin 27 5 9 6 Oct 16
Ameretto Son (IRE)from Norman Doolin 23 1 4 1 Feb 12
Wango (IRE) 15 0 2 15 Oct 11
Willies Girl (IRE)from Sean Osborne · then J R Hagan 12 1 2 17 Oct 10
Flemenspower (IRE)from R P Rath · then Miss Denise Marie O'Shea 9 0 0 15 Dec 16
Peggy Dell (IRE) 6 0 0 24 Feb 11
Faithless (IRE) 4 0 0 24 Jul 15
Woodbine Lu (IRE) 4 0 0 26 Jan 11
Riberettos Song (IRE)then James Keegan 4 0 0 15 Aug 10
Mokoro Man (IRE) 3 0 0 26 Sep 15
Janie Marey (IRE) 3 0 0 18 Jun 09
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Darragh Brennan (3) and Norman Doolin (3); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard, most often for James Keegan (2); 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000140011010800
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMichael Darcy
18% of all rides
6.3% SR · A/E 0.82
RiderRWSR£1
Michael Darcy 32 2 6.3% −12.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→
8
Archived wins
£78,688
Prize money
2014
Best season · 2 wins
West Ship Master (IRE) — Fethard Handicap Hurdle (81-109) Clonmel · Oct 2009
£7,256
Ameretto Son (IRE) — Ingoldsby (q.r.) Handicap Chase (0-102) Punchestown · Oct 2009
£6,910
Old Theatre Royal (IRE) — Tote Mobile Betting Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Roscommon · Sep 2014
£6,900
Notable horses
Old Theatre Royal (IRE) West Ship Master (IRE) Ameretto Son (IRE) Willies Girl (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oscar (IRE) 2.4% · 1–42
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
King's Theatre (IRE) 17.2% · 5–29
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Florida Son (GB) 4.3% · 1–23
Progeny have won 7.5% of 93 runs since 2008 (12 horses).
Okawango (USA) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 9.4% of 936 runs since 2008 (80 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.4% from 134.
Anshan (GB) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.
Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 174 · newest first

The latest 50 of 174 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 May 2009 to 15 December 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
15 Dec 16 Tramore Flemenspower (IRE)J: J J Slevin Waterford & Tramore Racecourse 2016 Recognition Award Beginners Chase21f · Heavy · 15 ran PU 80/1
01 Dec 16 Thurles Flemenspower (IRE)J: E O'Connell Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23.5f · Yielding · 18 ran UR 50/1
07 Nov 16 Fairyhouse Flemenspower (IRE)J: Stephen Gray Your Clubs Fundraiser At Fairyhouse, Enquire Today Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Good · 15 ran 12th 66/1
06 Oct 16 Tramore Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: E O'Connell Waterford & Tramore Racecourse Supporters Club Handicap Chase (0-95)22f · Good · 12 ran 11th 25/1
23 Sep 16 Downpatrick Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: J J Slevin Scottish Borders Handicap Chase (0-95)23f · Good · 15 ran 7th 33/1
08 Sep 16 Clonmel Flemenspower (IRE)J: Stephen Gray Giantsgrave Handicap Hurdle (80-95)19.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran PU 33/1
23 Aug 16 Ballinrobe Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: A E Lynch On Course Vets Beginners Chase19f · Yielding · 10 ran 9th 20/1
19 Aug 16 Killarney Flemenspower (IRE)J: Chris Timmons Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Yielding · 17 ran PU 20/1
12 Aug 16 Tramore Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: A E Lynch Tom Murphy (mercedes-benz) Car Sales Handicap Chase (0-95)22f · Good · 15 ran F 25/1
03 Jun 16 Tramore Flemenspower (IRE)J: Chris Timmons Tramore Golf Club Handicap Hurdle (80-95)21f · Good · 16 ran PU 14/1
03 Jun 16 Tramore Suremillie (IRE)J: Chris Timmons Sponsor A Race At Tramore Mares Maiden Hurdle21f · Good · 15 ran 10th 100/1
19 May 16 Clonmel Flemenspower (IRE)J: Chris Timmons Ancient East Mares Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 18 ran 5th 50/1
13 May 16 Kilbeggan Suremillie (IRE)J: Ryan Treacy Kinnegad Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 66/1
25 Apr 16 Tramore Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Best Price Guarantee At Thetote.com Handicap Chase (0-102)21f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 16/1
25 Apr 16 Tramore Flemenspower (IRE)J: Chris Timmons Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 5th 66/1
17 Mar 16 Down Royal Flemenspower (IRE)J: Mr Damien Skehan Weatherbys Ireland GSB Mares Flat Race16f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 33/1
21 Jan 16 Gowran Park Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-123)17f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 40/1
26 Nov 15 Thurles Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy www.thurlesraces.ie Handicap Chase22f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 10/1
07 Nov 15 Naas (IRE) Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: Paddy Kennedy Download Paddy Power's Super-Fast Messenger App Beginners Chase19f · Soft · 18 ran 9th 66/1
27 Oct 15 Punchestown Old Theatre Royal (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Betdaq.com 50 In Free Bets Beginners Chase20f · Yielding · 9 ran 9th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Lorcan Joseph Donnelly's strike rate?
Lorcan Joseph Donnelly has won 8 of 174 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Lorcan Joseph Donnelly's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 174 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).