What is Nicky Richards's strike rate?

Nicky Richards has won 657 of 4,064 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nicky Richards do best at?

Hexham by strike rate: 52 wins from 224 runners (23.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Nicky Richards?

Brian Harding, with 699 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (18.5%).

Is Nicky Richards in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Nicky Richards's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 4,056 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Nicky Richards

4,064 runners in the lifetime window · 389 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 12.9% of 255 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 5 Nov 2026.

Runners today 96% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

657–4,064

Wins / Runs

16.2%

Strike rate

n=4,064

1,476 (36%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=4,056 · 0.93 incl. margin

−493.34

£1 level stake

n=4,064 at SP · −12.1%

£7.03m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

22.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 210 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 20% (91 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 4,064 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Dec 37.1% when favourite Brian Harding: 18.5% from 699 Sends off the favourite in 17% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cheltenham (1.5% over 66 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 19.8% (n=91, Fair A/E 1.41), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 9% (n=189, Fair A/E 1.01). Brian Harding rides 17% of the entries and edges the yard's average (18.5% vs 16.2%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 0% over 31 runners, 16.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.80 across 144 runners (7.6% strike, −84.17 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 21 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase at Ayr (Apr 2019, £122,443). The stable star of the record: Caius Marcius (IRE) — 17 wins from 63 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Dec.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 16.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

15.4%−0.8

n=1,224 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −84.83

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%−3.7

n=88 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −32.26

Debutants · first career start

17.2%+1.0

n=233 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −13.61

First-time headgear · true-first definition

19.8%+3.6

n=91 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +9.56

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.2%−6.0

n=59 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −14.75

When favourite

37.1%

n=688 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −41.17

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.9%−2.3

n=933 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −126.56

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9%−7.2

n=189 · A/E 1.01 · £1 +58.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Cheltenham 1.5% vs 16.2% · n=66

Over 1m – 1m1f 0% vs 16.2% · n=31

At Aintree 4.7% vs 16.2% · n=85

On last-time-out winners 24% vs 16.2% · n=643

In Flat races 7.6% vs 16.2% · n=144

On Standard (AW) going 5.3% vs 16.2% · n=38

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 2,442 368 15.1% −396.50

Chase 1,145 210 18.3% −10.17

NH Flat 333 68 20.4% −2.50

Flat 144 11 7.6% −84.17

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 1,428 205 14.4% −221.67

Good to Soft 1,036 161 15.5% −114.35

Soft 963 172 17.9% −49.32

Heavy 440 95 21.6% −38.42

Good to Firm 159 22 13.8% −45.08

Standard (AW) 38 2 5.3% −24.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ayr 603 105 17.4% −114.32

Perth 459 54 11.8% −117.31

Kelso 446 85 19.1% −39.19

Carlisle 353 80 22.7% +92.40

Newcastle 332 60 18.1% −58.08

Musselburgh 241 31 12.9% −30.77

Hexham 224 52 23.2% −27.68

Doncaster 171 25 14.6% +20.49

Market Rasen 166 30 18.1% −2.62

Wetherby 135 25 18.5% +24.32

Sedgefield 124 25 20.2% +50.00

Haydock 121 15 12.4% −27.00

Bangor-on-Dee 89 13 14.6% −3.25

Aintree 85 4 4.7% −43.50

Cheltenham 66 1 1.5% −56.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,673 291 17.4% −244.72

Class 3 835 129 15.4% −123.52

Class 5 768 132 17.2% −97.50

Class 2 373 51 13.7% −33.09

Class 1 249 23 9.2% +43.25

Class 6 161 31 19.3% −32.76

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 788 276 35% 1.05 −52.47

2nd–3rd fav 1,236 240 19.4% 1.10 −75.87

4th–6th fav 1,203 109 9.1% 1.06 −133.00

7th+ in betting 837 32 3.8% 1.01 −232.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 1,408 254 18% +31.96

2m5f – 3m 1,193 185 15.5% −115.02

1m5f – 2m 1,103 171 15.5% −320.83

Over 3m 248 37 14.9% −29.78

1m2f – 1m4f 70 10 14.3% −17.67

1m – 1m1f 31 0 0% −31.00

6f – 7f 7 0 0% −7.00

Under 6f 4 0 0% −4.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 308 37 12% −126.62

2009 230 33 14.3% +10.36

2010 195 17 8.7% −82.94

2011 231 29 12.6% −85.46

2012 170 32 18.8% +29.51

2013 183 20 10.9% −87.78

2014 193 44 22.8% +46.24

2015 183 43 23.5% −0.53

2016 204 39 19.1% −17.59

2017 223 35 15.7% −16.15

2018 222 36 16.2% −22.07

2019 216 43 19.9% +10.39

2020 204 35 17.2% −31.18

2021 296 32 10.8% −86.89

2022 223 37 16.6% −21.62

2023 217 45 20.7% +92.54

2024 204 30 14.7% −45.57

2025 193 32 16.6% −54.90

2026 169 38 22.5% −3.08

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 2,617 393 15% −175.44

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,367 225 16.5% −79.76

5-7 runners 1,008 222 22% −70.61

11-13 runners 939 113 12% −198.40

14-16 runners 440 41 9.3% −126.07

17+ runners 157 10 6.4% −26.50

2-4 runners 153 46 30.1% +8.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86% completed · 3,587 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,145 77.5% 61 30 166 0 1

Hurdle 2,442 90% 44 21 177 0 3

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Caius Marcius (IRE) 63 17 28 26 Sep 24

Benmadigan (IRE) 56 9 15 30 Jul 14

Top Billing (GB)from John Gosden 54 8 14 30 Aug 21

Simply Ned (IRE) 45 10 22 4 Oct 20

One For Harry (IRE) 45 8 14 2 Jan 20

Mister Marker (IRE) 42 7 14 25 Mar 17

Noble Alan (GER) 42 9 17 24 Jun 15

Duke Of Navan (IRE) 41 6 20 23 Oct 21

Parc des Princes (USA)from Andrew Balding 41 5 9 24 Mar 17

That'll Do Nicely (IRE) 41 5 10 17 Jan 14

Rickety Gate (GB) 40 5 12 22 Oct 26

Houston Dynimo (IRE)from Kevin Prendergast · then David Pipe 39 6 16 22 May 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 389 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 20 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Prendergast (2); 44 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard, most often for David Pipe (2) and Stuart Coltherd (2); 51 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

161719141212161415171720

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBrian Harding

17% of all rides
18.5% SR · A/E 1.15

RiderRWSR£1

Brian Harding 699 129 18.5% −56.63

Danny McMenamin 595 106 17.8% −67.18

Brian Hughes 407 88 21.6% −58.75

Ryan Day 396 55 13.9% −50.84

Sean Quinlan 344 61 17.7% +28.09

Fearghal Davis 289 28 9.7% −85.73

Craig Nichol 220 37 16.8% −21.52

Davy Condon 130 21 16.2% −0.25

Dougie Costello 122 21 17.2% +10.45

Conor Rabbitt 104 19 18.3% +23.75

Miss J R Richards 89 9 10.1% −36.52

Callum Bewley 59 6 10.2% +4.08

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

833

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.01m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 62 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Takingrisks (IRE) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Ayr · Apr 2019 · Grade 3

£122,443

Monet's Garden (IRE) — John Smith's Melling Chase (Grade 1) Aintree · Apr 2007 · Class 1

£114,040

Monet's Garden (IRE) — Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) Ascot · Feb 2010 · Class 1

£84,894

Notable horses

Caius Marcius (IRE) Monet's Garden (IRE) Simply Ned (IRE) Noble Alan (GER) Benmadigan (IRE) Takingrisks (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 12.6% · 37–293

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Gold Well (GB) 19.7% · 36–183

Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).

Milan (GB) 17.8% · 28–157

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,871 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

King's Theatre (IRE) 25.2% · 39–155

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Fruits Of Love (USA) 13.1% · 14–107

Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.

Trans Island (GB) 17.8% · 19–107

Progeny have won 9% of 4,741 runs since 2008 (295 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 4,949 · newest first

The latest 50 of 4,949 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 5 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

05 Nov 26 Newcastle Thorneylands (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran F 11/8F

05 Nov 26 Newcastle President Scottie (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Racing At The Heart Of Our Community Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 6th 11/1

05 Nov 26 Newcastle Spreadsheet Guru (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 8/11F

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Luckie Devil (IRE)J: Ella McGarry Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 11 ran 1st 100/30J

03 Nov 26 Sedgefield Gintime (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Canine PREMIER FLEX Plus Joint Supplement Etc Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 3/1F

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Cayenne (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Breeders' Cup On Sky Sports Racing Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 5th 7/4F

27 Oct 26 Newcastle Ms Cindy Kate (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin High Gosforth Park Golf Club Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 17f · Good · 10 ran 5th 11/2

24 Oct 26 Kelso Summergrounds (GB)J: Ella McGarry Racingtv/freetrial Conditional Jockeys' Training Series Handicap Hurdle Race (go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier) (Part Of The Racing Excellence Series)Class 4 · 22.5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 3/1F

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Rickety Gate (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 4th 7/2F

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Dilrisk (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Class Of '63: 63 Years On Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 12th 7/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Mr Harvey James Watch Racing Replays At racingtv.com Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 4/1

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Centurion's Sister (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 13/8F

14 Oct 26 Wetherby Parisencore (FR)J: Danny McMenamin Bobby Renton Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 4 ran 1st 5/1

10 Oct 26 Hexham No Regrets (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin Tynedale Rfc Community Rugby Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Red Rum Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 9 ran 4th 12/1

02 Oct 26 Hexham Ballynoe Boy (IRE)J: Danny McMenamin El Tel's 61 Racecourse's & Done Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 6 ran 1st 15/8F

23 Sep 26 Redcar Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Mr Harvey James Aja Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Riders Had Ridden No More Than 3 Winners At Start Of Season)Class 6 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 6/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Luckie Devil (IRE)J: Ella McGarry Nairn's Oatcakes Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 24f · Good · 12 ran 7th 18/1

23 Sep 26 Perth Summergrounds (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Lord Mansfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 11/1

08 Sep 26 Catterick Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Mr Harvey James Racing Again 30th September Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 4th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 14 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · to 24 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Nicky Richards's strike rate?: Nicky Richards has won 657 of 4,064 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nicky Richards do best at?: Hexham by strike rate: 52 wins from 224 runners (23.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nicky Richards?: Brian Harding, with 699 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 129 (18.5%).
Is Nicky Richards in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Nicky Richards's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 4,056 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.