What is Noel Williams's strike rate?

Noel Williams has won 81 of 808 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Noel Williams do best at?

Newbury by strike rate: 7 wins from 36 runners (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Noel Williams?

James Banks, with 99 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (6.1%).

What is Noel Williams's Fair A/E?

0.98, from 805 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Noel Williams

808 runners in the lifetime window · 106 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 158 days ago 91% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

81–808

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=808

240 (30%)

Placed

0.98

Fair A/E

n=805 · 0.84 incl. margin

−277.30

£1 level stake

n=808 at SP · −34.3%

£842k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98). Debutants are a strength: 13% on first career starts (76 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 808 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 37.1% when favourite James Banks: 6.1% from 99 Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newbury (19.4%, n=36) and Huntingdon (16.1%, n=56) — all clear of the yard's 10% baseline. It is weakest at Southwell (2.8% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants strike at 13.2% (n=76, Fair A/E 2.24), but new recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 6.7% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.95). James Banks rides 12% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (6.1% vs 10%, A/E 0.74). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the British EBF BetVictor racingtohelpukraine.uk 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle at Newbury (Apr 2022, £20,812). The stable star of the record: Authorized Too (GB) — 5 wins from 23 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.7%−1.3

n=206 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −47.89

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.7%−3.3

n=30 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −19.12

Debutants · first career start

13.2%+3.2

n=76 · A/E 2.24 · £1 +23.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

10.9%+0.9

n=55 · A/E 1.55 · £1 −16.43

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

15%+5.0

n=20 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −10.50

When favourite

37.1%

n=62 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +1.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.3%−1.7

n=193 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −80.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

8.3%−1.7

n=48 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −21.52

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Newbury 19.4% vs 10% · n=36

With Wayne Hutchinson 17.3% vs 10% · n=81

With Leighton Aspell 17.4% vs 10% · n=46

At Southwell 2.8% vs 10% · n=36

At Huntingdon 16.1% vs 10% · n=56

With horses switching code 5.1% vs 10% · n=138

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 449 43 9.6% −195.94

Chase 144 21 14.6% −48.24

NH Flat 141 13 9.2% −11.62

Flat 74 4 5.4% −21.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 269 25 9.3% −74.58

Soft 194 22 11.3% −87.84

Good to Soft 192 21 10.9% −54.87

Heavy 68 8 11.8% −32.01

Standard (AW) 59 3 5.1% −7.50

Good to Firm 26 2 7.7% −20.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Huntingdon 56 9 16.1% +14.74

Warwick 50 4 8% −33.39

Uttoxeter 47 4 8.5% −12.00

Wincanton 39 3 7.7% −24.00

Newbury 36 7 19.4% +23.25

Southwell 36 1 2.8% −26.00

Fontwell 29 4 13.8% −0.09

Plumpton 29 1 3.4% −27.43

Newton Abbot 28 9 32.1% +17.67

Worcester 27 1 3.7% −20.00

Ludlow 27 2 7.4% −18.75

Kempton 26 2 7.7% −18.00

Taunton 24 1 4.2% −16.00

Doncaster 23 4 17.4% −3.93

Exeter 23 2 8.7% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 371 43 11.6% −134.40

Class 5 198 17 8.6% −33.05

Class 3 101 11 10.9% −47.83

Class 6 64 3 4.7% −31.50

Class 1 48 4 8.3% −21.52

Class 2 21 3 14.3% −4.00

Class 7 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 72 24 33.3% 1.10 −5.00

2nd–3rd fav 199 29 14.6% 0.88 −43.80

4th–6th fav 286 25 8.7% 1.21 −24.50

7th+ in betting 251 3 1.2% 0.40 −204.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86% completed · 593 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 144 81.9% 4 4 18 0 0

Hurdle 449 87.3% 8 5 44 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Another Crick (GB) 29 4 14 22 Apr 24

Moviddy (IRE) 26 3 10 7 May 26

Authorized Too (GB)from William Haggas 23 5 13 12 Dec 18

Twin Star (IRE)from Andrew Balding 22 2 5 10 Dec 21

Sensulano (IRE) 22 5 12 6 Mar 21

Friendly Society (IRE)from Michael Hourigan 21 1 4 6 Mar 16

Pattara (GB) 19 1 3 12 Apr 17

Daliance (IRE)from Neil King 18 3 3 29 Aug 17

Theatre Goer (GB) 16 2 9 18 Feb 17

Delight Of Dubai (IRE) 15 3 6 28 Jul 22

Percy Prosecco (GB)then Archie Watson 15 2 7 2 May 19

Briery Queen (GB) 15 5 8 15 Nov 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 106 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Neil King (2); 46 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Kerry Lee (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

101210791791456148

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJames Banks

12% of all rides
6.1% SR · A/E 0.74

RiderRWSR£1

James Banks 99 6 6.1% −54.00

James Davies 87 7 8% −18.25

Wayne Hutchinson 81 14 17.3% +12.45

Tom O'Brien 50 4 8% −23.71

Leighton Aspell 46 8 17.4% −3.29

Robert Dunne 45 3 6.7% −36.34

Paddy Brennan 37 5 13.5% −15.37

Thomas Garner 35 2 5.7% −11.00

Jonathan Burke 33 5 15.2% −9.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£842k

Prize money

2018

Best season · 12 wins

Largy G (IRE) — British EBF BetVictor racingtohelpukraine.uk 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (GBB) Newbury · Apr 2022 · Grade 2

£20,812

Briery Queen (GB) — Olbg Mares' Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Dec 2016 · Class 2

£18,768

Sensulano (IRE) — OLBG.com Mares' Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Dec 2018 · Class 2

£18,582

Notable horses

Authorized Too (GB) Sensulano (IRE) Briery Queen (GB) Another Crick (GB) Moviddy (IRE) Daliance (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 6.5% · 3–46

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,757 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

King's Theatre (IRE) 17.8% · 8–45

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Arcadio (GER) 13.8% · 4–29

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,979 runs since 2011 (375 horses).

Urban Poet (USA) 11.5% · 3–26

Progeny have won 5% of 520 runs since 2014 (38 horses).

Milan (GB) 28% · 7–25

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,877 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Champs Elysees (GB) 12.5% · 3–24

Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,127 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 808 · newest first

The latest 50 of 808 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 October 2013 to 2 June 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Jun 26 Southwell Lairig Mor (GB)J: James Davies Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 1st 9/1

30 May 26 Stratford For Love Of Beauty (GB)J: James Davies Happy 70th Birthday Rich Wilding Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 28/1

07 May 26 Huntingdon Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 5 ran PU 8/1

19 Apr 26 Plumpton Golden Sanjida (GB)J: James Davies BetGoodwin Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 18f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 40/1

13 Apr 26 Fakenham Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Mares' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 5 ran PU 4/1

09 Apr 26 Taunton For Love Of Beauty (GB)J: James Davies Tony & Carole Stocker Anniversary Surprise Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 33/1

01 Apr 26 Southwell Briery Bluebelle (GB)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Mares' Standard NH Flat Race (Conditional/Amateurs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 50/1

23 Mar 26 Wincanton Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan WinOlympics Family Day April 12th Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 4 ran 2nd 9/4

21 Mar 26 Newbury Queenofthejukebox (IRE)J: Sean Bowen BetVictor British EBF 'National Hunt' Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 16/1

18 Mar 26 Huntingdon Golden Sanjida (GB)J: James Davies Weatherbys Scientific Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 14th 80/1

07 Mar 26 Sandown Millstatt Abbey (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan British Stallion Studs EBF Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 3/1F

01 Mar 26 Huntingdon For Love Of Beauty (GB)J: James Davies First Past The Post At CopyBet 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 150/1

26 Feb 26 Wetherby Queenofthejukebox (IRE)J: Sean Bowen Racing TV For The Cheltenham Festival Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 2/1

13 Feb 26 Fakenham Golden Sanjida (GB)J: James Davies Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 12/1

13 Feb 26 Fakenham Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Terry Moyise Memorial Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Soft · 4 ran 3rd 3/1

02 Feb 26 Kempton Queenofthejukebox (IRE)J: Gavin Sheehan Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 10/1

22 Jan 26 Huntingdon Briery Bluebelle (GB)J: Jay Tidball Pertemps Network Mares' Maiden NH Flat Race (Conditionals & Amateurs)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 10 ran PU 11/1

20 Jan 26 Southwell (AW) Flame Dancer (GB)J: Georgia Dobie Midnite Aint Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 14f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 100/1

18 Jan 26 Fakenham Moviddy (IRE)J: Jack Hogan Gamble Plant (Norfolk) Ltd Queen Boudicca Series Final Mares' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 21f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 14/1

11 Jan 26 Fontwell Flame Dancer (GB)J: James Davies Betting.Bet Best Betting Sites Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 17.5f · Soft · 9 ran PU 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Noel Williams's strike rate?: Noel Williams has won 81 of 808 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Noel Williams do best at?: Newbury by strike rate: 7 wins from 36 runners (19.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Noel Williams?: James Banks, with 99 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (6.1%).
What is Noel Williams's Fair A/E?: 0.98, from 805 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.