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Trainer profile

Patrick G Kelly

780 runners in the lifetime window · 98 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 122 days ago 93% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
41–780
Wins / Runs
5.3%
Strike rate
n=780
155 (20%)
Placed
0.83
Fair A/E
n=780 · 0.65 incl. margin
−398.37
£1 level stake
n=780 at SP · −51.1%
£853k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.83).

Deterministic profile computed from 780 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr 32.5% when favourite Tony Kelly: 7.7% from 91 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races
The read

It is weakest at Limerick (2.1% over 97 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=65, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −99.50 to a £1 stake over 176 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tony Kelly rides 12% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.7% vs 5.3%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the RSA Insurance Novices' Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2018, £100,132). The stable star of the record: Presenting Percy (GB) — 10 wins from 23 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−1.9
n=176 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −99.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.3
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.3
n=65 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −65.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.1%−1.2
n=49 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −31.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.8%−0.5
n=42 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −34.00
When favourite
32.5%
n=40 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −1.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.9%−1.4
n=463 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −221.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
26.1%+20.8
n=23 · A/E 1.74 · £1 +18.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Davy Russell 24.5% vs 5.3% · n=53
On last-time-out winners 19% vs 5.3% · n=42
With debutants 0% vs 5.3% · n=65
With Mr P J Cawley 0% vs 5.3% · n=59
With a new jockey booking 2.6% vs 5.3% · n=389
At Limerick 2.1% vs 5.3% · n=97
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 483 30 6.2% −171.60
Chase 177 7 4% −142.02
NH Flat 67 2 3% −38.25
Flat 53 2 3.8% −46.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 277 13 4.7% −182.97
Heavy 203 15 7.4% −99.15
Good 189 7 3.7% −117.50
Good to Soft 66 5 7.6% +39.75
Good to Firm 41 1 2.4% −34.50
Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Ballinrobe 121 5 4.1% −69.50
Galway 118 7 5.9% −65.75
Limerick 97 2 2.1% −75.50
Punchestown 63 3 4.8% −36.10
Roscommon 62 3 4.8% +16.00
Cork 60 4 6.7% −36.75
Sligo 39 3 7.7% −9.77
Thurles 37 1 2.7% −32.50
Killarney 29 4 13.8% −6.50
Listowel 29 0 0% −29.00
Tipperary 24 1 4.2% −3.00
Clonmel 21 1 4.8% −14.50
Fairyhouse 16 2 12.5% −8.50
Gowran Park 14 2 14.3% −7.50
Kilbeggan 14 0 0% −14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 23 6 26.1% +18.50
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 4 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 50 17 34% 1.30 +9.63
2nd–3rd fav 96 8 8.3% 0.63 −56.00
4th–6th fav 190 8 4.2% 0.65 −89.00
7th+ in betting 444 8 1.8% 0.72 −263.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87.1% completed · 660 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 177 80.2% 8 5 21 1 0
Hurdle 483 89.6% 8 7 35 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
King Ali (IRE) 45 4 15 26 Aug 14
Markey Cee (IRE) 39 1 12 7 Aug 12
Captain Jimmy (IRE) 33 4 6 7 May 24
Dawn Raider (IRE)then Brian Francis Cawley 31 1 14 30 Sep 19
Friends N Commerce (IRE) 26 0 6 25 Aug 25
Mall Dini (IRE) 25 3 16 28 May 19
Presenting Percy (GB)then Gordon Elliott 23 10 15 13 Mar 20
Lizzies Champ (IRE) 21 3 8 12 Sep 19
Two In A Row (IRE) 20 1 2 24 Jan 15
Kansas Kid (IRE) 18 1 6 8 Oct 19
Bonifacio (IRE)from Michael Joseph Fitzgerald · then Sabrina J Harty 18 2 6 13 Feb 13
Macklycuddy (USA)then Rebecca Menzies 18 0 1 24 Nov 12
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 98 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from S J Mahon (3); 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard, most often for Gordon Elliott (4) and Rebecca Menzies (4); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
8387009411065
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTony Kelly
12% of all rides
7.7% SR · A/E 1.01
RiderRWSR£1
Tony Kelly 91 7 7.7% +5.50
Philip Donovan 86 4 4.7% −40.50
Mr P J Cawley 59 0 0% −59.00
Davy Russell 53 13 24.5% +12.40
Shane Jackson 45 1 2.2% −36.00
Adam Short 36 2 5.6% −4.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
46
Archived wins
6
Pattern / graded wins
£916k
Prize money
2017
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Presenting Percy (GB) — RSA Insurance Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2018 · Grade 1
£100,132
Presenting Percy (GB) — Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Cheltenham · Mar 2017 · Listed
£54,103
Mall Dini (IRE) — Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle) Cheltenham · Mar 2016 · Listed
£51,255
Notable horses
Presenting Percy (GB) King Ali (IRE) Captain Jimmy (IRE) Mall Dini (IRE) Lizzies Champ (IRE) Bonifacio (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mahler (GB) 1.7% · 1–60
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,877 runs since 2014 (787 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
King's Theatre (IRE) 8.3% · 4–48
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Sassanian (USA) 2.4% · 1–41
Progeny have won 10.3% of 661 runs since 2008 (67 horses).
Beneficial (GB) 2.6% · 1–38
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Gold Well (GB) 12.1% · 4–33
Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).
Milan (GB) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,871 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 915 · newest first

The latest 50 of 915 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 6 July 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Jul 26 Roscommon The Cormick Chick (IRE)J: Miss A L Fitzgibbon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 16 ran 15th 100/1
29 Dec 25 Limerick Shotgun Jack (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Vision Contracting Novice Handicap Chase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 9th 28/1
25 Aug 25 Ballinrobe Friends N Commerce (IRE)J: Miss L Costello On-Course Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)22.5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 40/1
01 Aug 25 Galway Shotgun Jack (IRE)J: J J Slevin Guinness Beginners Chase22.5f · Good · 16 ran 11th 50/1
01 Jul 25 Tipperary Shotgun Jack (IRE)J: J J Slevin Baileys Hotel Cashel Beginners Chase19.5f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 150/1
01 Jul 25 Tipperary Friends N Commerce (IRE)J: J Smith Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (Div 1)23f · Yielding · 13 ran 12th 28/1
09 Jun 25 Roscommon Shotgun Jack (IRE)J: Charlie O'Dwyer George And Joan McCourt Memorial Beginners Chase21.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 50/1
07 Jun 25 Punchestown Tuffliketiger (IRE)J: Aaron Anderson Ladbrokes 'Get Rewarded With Ladbucks' Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran PU 150/1
07 Jun 25 Punchestown Friends N Commerce (IRE)J: Aaron Anderson Ladbrokes Handicap Chase24.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran UR 28/1
22 May 25 Limerick Friends N Commerce (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Gairdin Glas Handicap Chase25.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 12/1
13 May 25 Sligo Tuffliketiger (IRE)J: Miss L Costello Summer Is Coming Sligo Flat Race18f · Good · 6 ran 5th 22/1
13 May 25 Sligo Shotgun Jack (IRE)J: Philip Donovan Kevin Egan Cars Peugeot Citreon Handicap Hurdle26f · Good · 12 ran 9th 22/1
10 May 25 Cork Skid Row Joe (IRE)J: Philip Donovan Racing Again May 20th Maiden Hurdle24.5f · Good · 13 ran 13th 250/1
10 May 25 Cork Friends N Commerce (IRE)J: Philip Donovan Tesla Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)20f · Good · 14 ran 8th 40/1
11 Apr 25 Ballinrobe Shotgun Jack (IRE)J: Philip Donovan Lodge At Ashford Castle Handicap Hurdle21.5f · Good · 12 ran 11th 16/1
06 Mar 25 Thurles Thefarmersdaughter (IRE)J: Philip Donovan ThurlesRaces.ie Maiden Hurdle15.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 13th 300/1
28 Jan 25 Limerick Thefarmersdaughter (IRE)J: Philip Donovan Limerick Racecourse Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 11 ran PU 200/1
28 Dec 24 Limerick Trackman Tommy (IRE)J: Miss L Costello D Pack Packaging Handicap Hurdle (80-102)21f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran PU 50/1
26 Dec 24 Limerick Thefarmersdaughter (IRE)J: Mr C M Connolly JJ Kavanagh Buses Mares Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 12th 33/1
09 Sep 24 Galway Clyde The Glide (IRE)J: Philip Donovan Galway Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)22.5f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran PU 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick G Kelly's strike rate?
Patrick G Kelly has won 41 of 780 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick G Kelly do best at?
Sligo by strike rate: 3 wins from 39 runners (7.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick G Kelly?
Tony Kelly, with 91 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (7.7%).
What is Patrick G Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 780 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).