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Trainer profile

Toby Bulgin

100 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 5 days ago 96% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
14–100
Wins / Runs
14%
Strike rate
n=100
31 (31%)
Placed
1.63
Fair A/E
n=100 · 1.41 incl. margin
+38.00
£1 level stake
n=100 at SP · +38.0%
£120k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
26.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.63).

Deterministic profile computed from 100 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
The read

The yard also reads well on Good going (21.6%, n=51) and in NH Flat races (18.4%, n=38). The market has also underrated the yard in Class 4: Fair A/E 2.02 across 52 runners (17.3% strike, +13.00 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 5.3% over 38 runners, 8.7pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.3%−7.7
n=16 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −11.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−14.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Debutants · first career start
25%+11.0
n=24 · A/E 3.44 · £1 +69.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.1%−2.9
n=9 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −4.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−14.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13%−1.0
n=23 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −1.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−14.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break 5.3% vs 14% · n=38
On Good going 21.6% vs 14% · n=51
In Hurdle races 5.7% vs 14% · n=35
In NH Flat races 18.4% vs 14% · n=38
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 17.9% vs 14% · n=39
In Class 4 17.3% vs 14% · n=52
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat 38 7 18.4% +59.50
Hurdle 35 2 5.7% −25.25
Chase 23 5 21.7% +7.75
Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 51 11 21.6% +66.75
Soft 24 1 4.2% −21.25
Good to Soft 17 2 11.8% +0.50
Standard (AW) 4 0 0% −4.00
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Huntingdon 8 2 25% −0.75
Fakenham 6 1 16.7% +0.50
Stratford 6 0 0% −6.00
Market Rasen 5 0 0% −5.00
Fontwell 5 2 40% +12.00
Uttoxeter 5 0 0% −5.00
Newbury 4 0 0% −4.00
Ffos Las 4 0 0% −4.00
Cheltenham 4 1 25% +17.00
Wetherby 4 1 25% −0.75
Newcastle 3 0 0% −3.00
Doncaster 3 2 66.7% +33.50
Worcester 3 1 33.3% +3.50
Catterick 3 0 0% −3.00
Warwick 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 52 9 17.3% +13.00
Class 5 25 3 12% +18.50
Class 3 15 0 0% −15.00
Class 2 7 2 28.6% +22.50
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
2nd–3rd fav 22 6 27.3% 1.60 +4.50
4th–6th fav 37 5 13.5% 1.85 +7.50
7th+ in betting 37 3 8.1% 3.39 +30.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.2% completed · 58 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 23 82.6% 0 0 4 0 0
Hurdle 35 88.6% 0 0 4 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Luckofthedraw (FR)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 19 3 6 23 Apr 24
Merely A Detail (GB) 13 3 7 25 Sep 26
Crystal Jet (FR) 8 1 3 26 Sep 26
Gerritzen (GB) 7 0 0 3 Jul 22
Rapaport (GB) 7 1 3 18 Apr 22
Arthur's Seat (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish 6 0 3 21 May 22
Midsummer Dream (FR) 4 0 0 26 Dec 25
Ligety (GB) 3 0 0 4 Dec 24
Bold Yeoman (IRE) 3 0 0 6 Jun 24
Solar Sovereign (IRE) 3 1 2 15 Feb 23
Darling Alko (FR)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 3 0 0 10 Mar 21
Tricomi (GB) 3 0 0 15 Feb 21
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nigel Twiston-Davies (2); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 21 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
02217201001733014300
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Jordan Nailor 20 3 15% +0.25
Jonathan Burke 17 2 11.8% −6.50
Brian Hughes 14 4 28.6% +33.75
Max Kendrick 14 0 0% −14.00
Tom Cannon 5 2 40% +32.50
Danny McMenamin 3 1 33.3% +4.50
Niall Houlihan 3 0 0% −3.00
Robert Dunne 2 0 0% −2.00
Isabelle Ryder 2 1 50% +2.50
Mr Jack Andrews 2 0 0% −2.00
Kielan Woods 2 0 0% −2.00
George Downing 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
14
Archived wins
£120k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 5 wins
Black Eddy (GB) — Wasdell Group Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Chepstow · Oct 2025 · Class 2
£8,714
Poetisa (IRE) — Junior Jumpers Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Apr 2025 · Class 2
£8,169
Rapaport (GB) — Aldiss Furnishing Stores Seniors' Handicap Hurdle Fakenham · Apr 2022 · Class 4
£7,788
Notable horses
Luckofthedraw (FR) Merely A Detail (GB) Crystal Jet (FR) Rapaport (GB) Solar Sovereign (IRE) Port Isaac (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Martaline (GB) 15.8% · 3–19
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,345 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Falco (USA) 23.1% · 3–13
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,582 runs since 2008 (208 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.3% from 332. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13.6% from 286. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6% from 134.
Crystal Ocean (GB) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 12.8% of 436 runs since 2008 (122 horses).
Dr Massini (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Geordieland (FR) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.9% of 714 runs since 2008 (71 horses).
Champs Elysees (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,122 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 100 · newest first

The latest 50 of 100 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 May 2018 to 24 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
24 Oct 26 Cheltenham Port Isaac (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Lucy's 40th Birthday Celebration Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 9th 9/1
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Crystal Jet (FR)J: Jack Garritty 3rd And 10th Oktoberfest Race Nights Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 11f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 200/1
25 Sep 26 Worcester Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Copybet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 11/2
03 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Crystal Jet (FR)J: George Downing Bettingsites.co.uk Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 150/1
28 Aug 26 Fontwell Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18f · Good · 6 ran 1st 3/1
24 Jul 26 Uttoxeter Don De La Frontera (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 9th 80/1
19 Jul 26 Newton Abbot Crystal Jet (FR)J: Jonathan Burke Happy 80th Birthday Ted Hull Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 4th 4/1
05 Jul 26 Market Rasen Don De La Frontera (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Boxing Day At The Races On Sale Now! Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 9/1
01 Jul 26 Worcester Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Worcestershire Ambassadors Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 11/2
19 Jun 26 Goodwood Crystal Jet (FR)J: George Downing Fitzdares Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 14f · Good · 10 ran 8th 16/1
04 May 26 Fakenham Merely A Detail (GB)J: Jonathan Burke Heritage House Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 4th 6/1
04 May 26 Warwick Crystal Jet (FR)J: Isabelle Ryder Moore & Tibbits Family Fun Day Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 4th 15/2
19 Apr 26 Stratford Merely A Detail (GB)J: Danny McMenamin George Wood Years Of Service Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 2/1
06 Apr 26 Hereford Crystal Jet (FR)J: Isabelle Ryder Richard Layton Charity Evening 16th April Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 1st 7/2
21 Mar 26 Newbury Mistral du Chenet (FR)J: Dylan Johnston Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 16th 12/1
18 Mar 26 Huntingdon Orixa (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Weatherbys Scientific Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 3/1F
13 Mar 26 Doncaster Port Isaac (GB)J: Danny McMenamin Virgin Bet 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 13/2
04 Mar 26 Catterick True Measure (GB)J: Tom Cannon Flat Season Next Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 15.5f · Good · 8 ran 8th 5/1
25 Feb 26 Wincanton Nathannah (GB)J: James Bowen Wincanton Fillies' 'Junior' NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 15f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 1st 9/1
26 Dec 25 Fontwell Midsummer Dream (FR)J: Joshua Bryan tigerbet.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17.5f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 4th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Toby Bulgin's strike rate?
Toby Bulgin has won 14 of 100 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Toby Bulgin in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Toby Bulgin's Fair A/E?
1.63, from 100 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).