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Trainer profile

Tom Dreaper

100 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses
As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 8 days ago 99% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
2–100
Wins / Runs
2%
Strike rate
n=100
13 (13%)
Placed
0.31
Fair A/E
n=100 · 0.25 incl. margin
−95.99
£1 level stake
n=100 at SP · −96.0%
£46,802
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.31).

Deterministic profile computed from 100 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
The read

The yard also reads well in Chase races (6.7%, n=30). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.00 across 68 runners (0% strike, −68.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.0
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%+5.1
n=14 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −11.90
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.0
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=6 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −1.99
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−2.0
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Chase races 6.7% vs 2% · n=30
In Hurdle races 0% vs 2% · n=68
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 2% · n=51
With a new jockey booking 0% vs 2% · n=51
With claiming riders up 0% vs 2% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 68 0 0% −68.00
Chase 30 2 6.7% −25.99
Flat 1 0 0% −1.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 38 1 2.6% −36.09
Heavy 27 1 3.7% −24.90
Good 22 0 0% −22.00
Good to Soft 13 0 0% −13.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 18 1 5.6% −16.09
Fairyhouse 14 0 0% −14.00
Navan 9 0 0% −9.00
Limerick 6 0 0% −6.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Down Royal 5 0 0% −5.00
Galway 5 0 0% −5.00
Downpatrick 4 0 0% −4.00
Leopardstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Tramore 4 0 0% −4.00
Ballinrobe 3 0 0% −3.00
Clonmel 3 0 0% −3.00
Wexford 3 0 0% −3.00
Thurles 3 1 33.3% −0.90
Kilbeggan 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 2 25% 0.76 −3.99
2nd–3rd fav 9 0 0% 0.00 −9.00
4th–6th fav 15 0 0% 0.00 −15.00
7th+ in betting 68 0 0% 0.00 −68.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
82.7% completed · 98 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 30 66.7% 1 1 8 0 0
Hurdle 68 89.7% 2 1 4 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Papa Barns (IRE)from J T R Dreaper · then Olly Murphy 11 0 4 2 Mar 25
Folly Master (IRE)from J T R Dreaper 9 2 6 25 Oct 26
Vallon Du Plessis (FR) 8 0 0 21 Mar 26
Zarushio (IRE) 7 0 0 26 Aug 26
Doctor Glide (FR)from J T R Dreaper · then Tim Vaughan 7 0 2 1 Apr 25
Question Asked (IRE) 5 0 0 2 Apr 26
Lar's Lass (IRE)from J T R Dreaper 5 0 0 9 Nov 24
Cnoc An Locha (IRE) 4 0 0 3 Apr 25
Kitty Ooru (IRE)then Martin Todhunter 4 0 0 28 Nov 24
The Declaimer (IRE)from J T R Dreaper 4 0 0 26 Aug 24
Know The Game (IRE)from J T R Dreaper · then Micky Hammond 4 0 1 2 Jun 24
Jukebox Jolene (IRE) 3 0 0 3 Sep 26
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J T R Dreaper (10); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0070000000014
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Keith Donoghue 25 2 8% −20.99
Patrick M O'Brien 15 0 0% −15.00
Conor Stone-Walsh 12 0 0% −12.00
Ben Harvey 12 0 0% −12.00
Donagh Meyler 9 0 0% −9.00
Alix Balfe 4 0 0% −4.00
Ivan Ryan 4 0 0% −4.00
Kieren Buckley 3 0 0% −3.00
Shane O'Callaghan 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr J C Barry 2 0 0% −2.00
Luke Carberry 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr D G Lavery 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
2
Archived wins
£46,802
Prize money
2024
Best season · 2 wins
Folly Master (IRE) — Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap Chase Punchestown · Dec 2024
£8,850
Folly Master (IRE) — Leugh Beginners Chase Thurles · Mar 2024
£6,490
Notable horses
Folly Master (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mustameet (USA) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,161 runs since 2013 (103 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.5% from 248. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 424.
Famous Name (GB) 22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 9.2% of 1,512 runs since 2016 (102 horses).
Kitkou (FR) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.6% of 141 runs since 2020 (23 horses).
Doctor Dino (FR) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 16% of 3,215 runs since 2013 (495 horses). Strongest on Good going: 19.9% from 559. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.5% from 211. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.8% from 693. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.7% from 138.
Doyen (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,372 runs since 2009 (605 horses).
Kuroshio (AUS) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,308 runs since 2018 (119 horses). Weakest on Good going: 3.8% from 288.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 100 · newest first

The latest 50 of 100 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 March 2024 to 25 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Folly Master (IRE)J: Keith Donoghue COLM QUINN BMW Handicap Steeplechase22.5f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 6th 14/1
06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) The Aussie Warbler (IRE)J: Mr J C Barry Race In Pink On October 25th Flat Race16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 5th 100/1
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Jukebox Jolene (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Maiden Hurdle (Div II)16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 10th 66/1
26 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Zarushio (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh John Purfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17f · Good · 15 ran PU 66/1
30 Jun 26 Wexford Tumuch (FR)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Duncannon Beach Handicap Chase (0-100)16f · Good · 14 ran PU 18/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown Cool As A Cat (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 24 ran 10th 150/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown Jukebox Jolene (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 8th 25/1
13 May 26 Punchestown Zarushio (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 11th 40/1
13 May 26 Punchestown Cool As A Cat (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Ladbrokes Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 9th 200/1
19 Apr 26 Tramore Shirleynightingale (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 12 ran 4th 80/1
18 Apr 26 Bellewstown Zarushio (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Tony Marmion Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 16 ran 10th 40/1
05 Apr 26 Fairyhouse Areema Dreamer (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Ryan's Cleaning Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 22nd 300/1
05 Apr 26 Fairyhouse Zarushio (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Ryan's Cleaning Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 16th 300/1
05 Apr 26 Fairyhouse Midfield Magic (IRE)J: James Smith Ryan's Cleaning Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 4th 100/1
04 Apr 26 Fairyhouse Cool As A Cat (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran UR 80/1
02 Apr 26 Clonmel Question Asked (IRE)J: Alix Balfe KEP Italia Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft · 16 ran 15th 100/1
31 Mar 26 Limerick Shirleynightingale (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Ryans Cleaning Fillies Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 12/1
29 Mar 26 Downpatrick Tumuch (FR)J: Mr N McParlan Boardsmill Sires Maiden Hunters Chase23.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran PU 12/1
21 Mar 26 Navan Vallon Du Plessis (FR)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Kilberry Handicap Chase17f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 7th 66/1
08 Mar 26 Naas Vallon Du Plessis (FR)J: Conor Stone-Walsh BAR 1 Betting 'Completely Free 5 Euro Bet Online Every Day At Cheltenham' Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16.5f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 7th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 25 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 25 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Dreaper's strike rate?
Tom Dreaper has won 2 of 100 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Tom Dreaper in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom Dreaper's Fair A/E?
0.31, from 100 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 2 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).