2:30 Bath
This Class 4 confined restricted maiden for two-year-olds at Bath over a mile brings together a field of 14 with limited experience between them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Boomshakalak on 58, with The Sergeon, Starlight Bay, Mulvaney's Return and Yabreen all between 48 and 52. Most of the runners are unproven on good ground and without course form, making this a race where trainer and jockey course records, run-style and the scope for improvement from light careers carry particular weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only thin evidence for a clear front-runner. Orchard Hatches has shown a tendency to make the running or race prominently, though that evidence is limited. Several runners, including Starlight Bay, Cracking Idea, Greta Tintin and Biscaysian, are usually held up and produce their effort late, while Baarberini typically settles in midfield. The key question is whether the lack of confirmed pace will result in a steady gallop that plays into the hands of those coming from off the pace or whether someone will seize the initiative early.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Boomshakalak KTB Selection58/100
Boomshakalak showed little when finishing seventh over 7f on debut. Stepping up to 1m poses a fresh question for this lightly raced 2-year-old with only one run in the book. The trainer has sent just four runners to Bath so the small sample prevents any firm view, while Kieran O'Neill holds a solid 10 percent strike rate at the track from 382 rides. The horse is drawn in stall 1 and remains open to improvement as a KTB selection with a Fit score of 58.
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2The Sergeon52/100
The Sergeon showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip. Lightly raced with only one run in the book, the form is hard to weigh up accurately. Oliver Cole has a 33 percent strike rate at Bath from a small sample of three runs, though the 5lb claimer Jack Dace operates at a modest 7 percent strike rate here from 14 rides. The colt drops in class and is drawn in stall 10, with a KTB Fit score of 52 underlining his place near the head of the market.
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3Starlight Bay51/100
Starlight Bay has one run under her belt at this trip without success and remains lightly raced overall. Marcus Tregoning has a solid 20 percent strike rate at Bath from 232 runs while Jack Doughty posts a respectable 16 percent from 82 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination is 0-6 together. Usually held up and producing her effort late on the limited evidence available, she drops in class with a KTB Fit score of 51 and must be considered despite the caution required by such a small base of form.
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4Mulvaney's Return48/100
Mulvaney's Return showed fair placed form on debut then ran to a similar level when third last time. The Brian Meehan yard has a solid 17 percent strike rate at Bath from 409 runs, though Liam Wright's 11 percent from 18 rides here is more modest. With only two runs at the trip and too few runs overall to judge the going, this remains a lightly-raced horse that needs to improve. He drops in class from stall 9 and carries a KTB Fit score of 48.
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5Yabreen48/100
Yabreen showed little on debut when finishing seventh over 6.5f. The step up to a mile now poses a fresh question for this lightly-raced 2-year-old. Trainer Jack Channon holds a 13 percent strike-rate at Bath from 46 runs while jockey Finley Marsh is operating at 15 percent from 245 rides here. Their combined record is 2-16. Drawn in stall 6, the colt has a KTB Fit score of 48 and will need to show significant progress over the longer distance.
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6Trispen47/100
Trispen is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 17 percent strike rate at Bath. The colt was a 40,000gns yearling purchase out of a dam who produced several winners, including a smart performer at up to 1m. Connections are capable but this is very much an unknown on debut with low data confidence and a KTB Fit score of 47.
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7Baarberini47/100
Baarberini is a fair sort who has shown ability in both starts, finishing third then second over this trip. The yard has only three runs at Bath so far which is too small a sample to judge, though Daniel Muscutt brings a solid 17 percent strike rate from 130 rides here. Their combined record reads 6-31. Typically settling in midfield, the colt remains open to improvement with a KTB Fit score of 47.
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8Orchard Hatches46/100
Orchard Hatches showed some promise when third on debut but was well held in a subsequent 1m race. The yard has a solid 20 percent strike rate at Bath from a big sample yet Rhys Clutterbuck is operating at only 6 percent here. With just two career runs, a wide draw in stall 12 and one run on good ground without a win or place, there is not enough evidence to form a clear view. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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9Able Tasman45/100
Able Tasman showed some promise when finishing third on debut over 7f. He now steps up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The Archie Watson yard has a solid 16 percent strike rate at Bath while Jack Mitchell is operating at 14 percent here. Their combined record is 3-33. Drawn in stall 4 with a KTB Fit score of 45, he remains lightly raced.
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10Cracking Idea45/100
Cracking Idea has shown fair form in two starts to date, finishing third on debut then a solid fifth last time. The step up to 1m is an unknown at this stage. Ed Dunlop has a 16 percent strike rate at Bath from 76 runs while Mason Paetel is 13 percent from 15 rides here. Their combined record is 5-32. Usually held up, he drops in class from stall 13 with a KTB Fit score of 45.
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11Greta Tintin44/100
Greta Tintin has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth and then last. The yard has a solid 15 percent strike rate at Bath from a big sample, though the jockey is operating at a lower 9 percent here. With only two career runs and a wide draw in stall 14 the picture remains very unclear. Usually held up, she drops in class with a KTB Fit score of 44.
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12Naseebwali44/100
Naseebwali is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has only four runs at Bath so the sample is too small to judge, while Dylan Hogan has a solid 12 percent strike-rate from 65 rides here. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background that have yet to be tested. The colt has a KTB Fit score of 44.
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13Biscaysian44/100
Biscaysian has shown only modest form in two starts to date, finishing fifth then fourth without suggesting he is ahead of the average for this level. The yard has a solid 15 percent strike rate at Bath from a decent-sized sample while the apprentice has an 11 percent record from 27 rides here. He is trying the same trip again after one previous run at it and the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence. Usually held up, he has a KTB Fit score of 44.
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14Deira Moon42/100
Deira Moon showed very little on her 7f debut and now steps up markedly in trip as only her second start. The yard has too few runners at Bath to form any reliable view while the jockey operates at a modest 9 percent strike rate here from a big sample. With so little to go on this remains very much an unknown with a KTB Fit score of 42.
KTB verdict
Boomshakalak is the KTB selection. He showed little on debut over 7f yet remains lightly raced with only one run in the book and is entitled to improve as a 2-year-old stepping up to a mile from a good draw in stall 1. The Zoe Hawkins yard's small sample at Bath is offset by Kieran O'Neill's solid course record. The main dangers are The Sergeon, who displayed some promise on debut over the trip, and Starlight Bay, who represents a yard with a strong Bath record and can be expected to come from off the pace. Mulvaney's Return and Yabreen add further depth to a race where the lack of established form makes the outcome particularly open.
KTB Selection Boomshakalak
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse steps up in trip from a 7f debut seventh and is drawn in stall 1?
Boomshakalak, who has a KTB Fit score of 58 and is the selection.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Bath for the yard of the second-highest rated horse on KTB Fit?
Oliver Cole has a 33 percent strike rate at Bath from three runs for The Sergeon.
Which runner is noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace?
Orchard Hatches, who has shown some promise on debut but was well held subsequently.
How many career starts has Baarberini had and what are his two most recent form figures?
Two starts, with form figures of 32, finishing third then second over this trip.
Which two horses are by sires noted with a 10 percent overall win rate and are newcomers to the racecourse?
Trispen by Without Parole and Naseebwali by Mohaather.
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