2:05 Bath
This Class 6 apprentice handicap over 1m2f37y at Bath on good ground features a field of 13 limited performers, the majority of whom have struggled to make a significant impact of late. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with no standout standout, though the top five are separated by just 11 points and the selection sits clearly at the head of the list on recent upward form. With a strong pace anticipated, the race is likely to test stamina and positioning, and the Bath course statistics for several trainers and jockeys add an extra layer of interest to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected with at least two habitual front-runners committed to making it, which sets up the possibility of the race collapsing in the final furlong. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are hold-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the lap of a horse with a well-timed late run, particularly given the high confidence in the pace shape assessment.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shifra KTB Selection60/100
Shifra is a limited performer who has shown better form of late with two placed efforts from her last three starts. She has won on good ground and at today's trip while both trainer and jockey have solid records at Bath. Pat Phelan holds a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.11 from 15 runs, and Seamus Cronin is operating at 27% with an A/E of 1.61 from 11 rides. Stall 10 is a bit wide but the recent upward curve gives her a chance in this company. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold.
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2Kaaress51/100
Kaaress is a limited performer who has been on the go a long time and rarely threatens these days. She has won at today's trip and has shown some ability on good ground, placing twice from six starts on the surface without winning, but the recent form figures of 865497 tell a story of steady decline. Trainer Michael Attwater has a solid 13% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.13 from 159 runs, while apprentice James Glennon is having his first ride at the track yet boasts a 100% strike rate and A/E of 13 from his one previous Bath ride. Usually held up, she will be looking to come from off the strong pace.
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3Pepper Fizz51/100
Pepper Fizz is a limited performer who has shown only modest form across ten runs, finishing no closer than third in a similar race last time. She has placed once from two starts on good ground and is drawn okay in stall 5, but remains winless at this trip and is making her first visit to Bath. Georgina Nicholls holds a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.11 from 11 runs, while Harry Vigors is 25% with an A/E of 2.43 from four rides. Usually held up, she will hope the strong pace collapses late to give her a chance to close.
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4Warriors Choice50/100
Warriors Choice is a limited performer who has struggled since his early runs and finished well beaten on both starts this season. The trip looks a fair question on what he has shown so far and the wide draw in stall 9 is no help. Tom Dascombe continues in solid form at this track with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 0.96 from 166 runs, while Donagh Murphy has a 50% strike rate and A/E of 3.1 from two rides at Bath. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be among those waiting to pounce if the pace collapses.
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5Galactic Glow49/100
Galactic Glow is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to finish in the first three on eight occasions this year. He has won twice at Bath from 21 starts and steps back up to a trip he has won at three times from 22 attempts, though his last run over 1m suggests the extra furlong is a fresh question. Joe Tickle has a solid 13% strike-rate at the track from 87 runs while Jack Callan is operating at 9% from 32 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, he has placed five times from 16 starts on good ground without winning.
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6Claytons Kolatonic49/100
Claytons Kolatonic is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in eight starts and now steps up in trip for the first time. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.62 from 204 runs is offset by Ben Ffrench Davis's strong 16% strike rate here from 19 rides.
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7Launceston48/100
Launceston is a limited horse who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second of 13 over 1m here last time. He steps up in trip today having been placed once in two runs at this distance, though his two runs on good ground have produced no win or place, while trainer Tony Carroll holds an 11% strike rate at Bath from 867 runs.
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8Time For Action48/100
Time For Action is a limited performer who has already won once over this track from three runs. He has struggled this season with three modest efforts and remains winless at this trip from three attempts, though the trainer has a solid record here and the 5lb claimer is a positive.
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9Gert Lush44/100
Gert Lush is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with three placed efforts in his last four starts. He has shown fair form over this trip without winning and acts on good ground with four career wins from 18 starts, though his record at Bath from six runs is modest with no win or place.
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10Bobby Dassler41/100
Bobby Dassler is a limited performer who has won once in 12 runs at Bath but has been out of form for some time with three poor efforts in a row. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance previously, while the trainer has a solid record at the track.
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11Fitzmaurice38/100
Fitzmaurice is a limited horse who has shown only modest form this year and has failed to win in 16 starts. He drops back in trip today having been placed without winning over this distance on his sole attempt, with trainer Tony Carroll holding a solid 11% strike rate at Bath from a large sample.
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12Kev37/100
Kev is a limited performer who has shown very little in nine of his ten starts yet found the right conditions to win over this trip on his most recent outing. He has already been well beaten on his only previous visit to Bath and has failed to place in two runs on good ground.
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13Ravenswell33/100
Ravenswell is a limited performer on the balance of his 19 starts and recent form figures of 77-588. He drops back in trip to 1m2f having failed to win or place in seven previous attempts at the distance and has also shown no win or place from five runs on good ground, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Bath.
KTB verdict
Shifra is the KTB Selection. She has shown better form of late with two placed efforts from her last three starts, has won on good ground and at today's trip, and benefits from the solid records of both Pat Phelan and Seamus Cronin at Bath. The recent upward curve gives her a chance in this modest company, and she should be well suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Her main dangers are Galactic Glow, who has been consistent this year and has a good record at the track and trip, and the consistent Gert Lush who has been placing regularly at this level.
KTB Selection Shifra
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent placed form at this level?
Shifra has two placed efforts from her last three starts.
How many front-runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are committed, including Launceston and Time For Action.
Which horse has won the most times at Bath?
Galactic Glow has won twice at Bath from 21 starts.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Bath among the principals?
Seamus Cronin has a 27% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.61 from 11 rides.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Claytons Kolatonic is stepping up in trip for the first time.
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