4:54 Redcar
This Class 6 5f handicap at Redcar on good ground features a field of 14 modest performers where consistency rather than progressive form is the dominant theme. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Golden Havana heading the list on 53, followed closely by Midnight Lir and Houndhill on 51, Betweenthesticks on 50 and Muker on 48. Trainer Michael Dods holds a 9% strike rate at the track from a large sample, while several runners enter with first-time headgear or drops in class in search of an edge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Ice Cold Alex is the clear front-runner from stall 10, with Under The Radar and Hurt You Never prominent from draws of 9 and 7, promising an honest early gallop. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be produced late, so the key question is whether the race will fall apart up front or if the closers can time their efforts effectively off a strong pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Golden Havana KTB Selection53/100
Golden Havana is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, placing in five of his last six starts without managing to add to his sole win. He has won at this trip and has shown he can be competitive on good ground, though he remains winless in three attempts on it. The yard records a 9% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample. Connor Beasley takes the ride for Michael Dods, whose jockey combination shows an 11% strike rate overall. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a low draw of 2, he is expected to come from off the pace in a genuinely-run race.
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2Midnight Lir51/100
Midnight Lir is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time without winning. He has placed on good ground but remains winless from 11 starts on it and the first-time headgear is now being reached for. Trainer Michael Dods has a modest 9% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample. Mark Winn, who boasts a 21% strike rate at the track, takes the mount from stall 13. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from the rear in what should be a strongly-run affair.
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3Houndhill51/100
Houndhill is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but is now 0-7 on turf and showed little spark when eighth of 12 at Beverley last time. He has placed twice from three runs at Redcar and the drop back to 5f looks a plus on the balance of his form. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at the track is worth noting. Rowan Scott rides for Nigel Tinkler from draw 6. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to strike in the closing stages off what is set to be a genuine pace.
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4Betweenthesticks50/100
Betweenthesticks is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has placed on both starts at Redcar and holds a solid record on good ground with three wins from 17 attempts. Drawn in stall 1 and proven at this trip, he drops in class. James Sullivan partners him for Ruth Carr, whose yard has a 7% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the low draw could prove advantageous if he can be switched out in the straight.
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5Muker48/100
Muker is a modest performer who has won twice over this trip and twice at Redcar from six visits. He has been well held in six starts this season and now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track is worth noting. Molly Keegan-Price takes the ride from stall 8. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his course record gives him a clear foothold at this venue despite a modest campaign so far.
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6Speeding Bullet48/100
Speeding Bullet is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He ran well when third over this trip here last season and has placed twice on good ground, though the wide draw in stall 14 is far from ideal. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Redcar from a big sample suggests no strong home advantage.
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7Under The Radar48/100
Under The Radar is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without looking like winning. He has already won over this trip on good ground and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his exposed profile. The yard's modest record at Redcar adds a note of caution. Usually races prominently.
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8Ice Cold Alex48/100
Ice Cold Alex is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has won over today's trip on good ground but the yard's poor record at Redcar is a clear negative. First run here today and tends to make the running.
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9Dc Cogent47/100
Dc Cogent is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning often, landing one success over this trip from 16 attempts. Placed twice from six starts on good ground and should be competitive again from a wide draw. Trainer Bryan Smart has an 11% strike rate at Redcar from 559 runs.
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10Hurt You Never43/100
Hurt You Never is a limited horse who has won over this trip and at this track but is 0-14 in 2024 and has been well beaten on his last two starts. The first-time headgear is a possible plus but the yard's poor record at Redcar offers little encouragement. Has the form to be competitive at this level on a good day and usually races prominently.
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11Zuffolo43/100
Zuffolo is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning over this trip at Redcar in August. He has two course wins from seven runs and handles good ground well enough. The yard's modest record at the track adds a note of caution.
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12King of The Jungle43/100
King of The Jungle is a modest performer who has won twice this year but has gone backwards since the latest success. He has form at this trip and has been placed on good ground in the past though he has failed to place in four runs on this surface. Trainer's modest record at the track adds little confidence.
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13Cheerleader43/100
Cheerleader is a limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at this track. Recent form is solid enough for the grade with two placed efforts from her last three starts and she handles good ground. Trainer's modest record here adds a note of caution. Dropping in class.
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14Albegone41/100
Albegone is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning a similar race last time. He has placed once from three runs at Redcar and acts on good ground having won twice from 21 starts on it. The trip is no problem as he has seven wins at this distance from 50 starts.
KTB verdict
Golden Havana is the KTB Selection. A modest but reliable sort, he has placed in five of his last six starts and possesses the ability to be competitive on good ground at this trip, with the yard's record at Redcar offering no major concerns. His late-run style should suit the expected genuine pace. Main dangers include stablemate Midnight Lir with first-time headgear, the course-placed Houndhill dropping back to 5f, Betweenthesticks drawn low with a good record on the surface, and Muker who has won twice at the track.
KTB Selection Golden Havana
This is the narrative read of the 4:54 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Redcar?
Muker has won twice at Redcar from six visits, while Zuffolo also has two course wins from seven runs.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Four runners are trying first-time headgear: Midnight Lir, Muker, Under The Radar and Hurt You Never.
Which horses are dropping in class?
Houndhill, Betweenthesticks, Under The Radar, Ice Cold Alex and Cheerleader are all dropping in class.
Who is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Ice Cold Alex tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the clear front-runner.
Which horse has won the most times at this trip?
Albegone has seven wins at this distance from 50 starts.
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