2:52 Navan
The Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (Div I) at Navan brings together a competitive field of 19 over 2m3f on good ground. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks pace on paper, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical contest where being well positioned and timing a run will be crucial. Pure Logic heads the KTB Fit ratings on 57, just ahead of Tuckmill and Classy Cc on 54, with the remainder of the field tightly bunched and offering plenty of each-way interest on the day.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any confirmed front-runner, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field are hold-up types who produce their efforts late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than a test of pure stamina. The key question will be whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough to take advantage of the steady gallop without being caught out by a sprint finish.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Pure Logic KTB Selection57/100
Pure Logic arrives in solid form having posted recent figures of 536P31, including a win last time out. The six-year-old is held up in his races and usually produces his effort late, which should suit the anticipated tactical nature of this steadily-run contest. Trainer John Joseph Hanlon has a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.94 from 140 runs, while Paddy Hanlon has a 0% strike rate at the track from four rides. The horse has recorded one win from eight starts on good ground with five placed efforts, though he has no previous course form on record.
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2Tuckmill54/100
Tuckmill is a ten-year-old with recent form figures of P70-P7 and is rated 54 on KTB Fit. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, a style that aligns with the majority of the field in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. Trainer Peter Fahey has a 6% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.7 from 144 runs, while Mr R M McParland has no record at the track. The horse has one win from ten starts on good ground with two placed efforts and has finished ninth and thirteenth in two previous runs here without placing.
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3Classy Cc54/100
Classy Cc is a six-year-old with recent form of 3029-4 and shares a KTB Fit rating of 54. Typically settling in midfield, his run-style could prove useful in a race that lacks an obvious leader. Martin Brassil has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.96 from 102 runs, while Conor Brassil has a 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.48 from 27 rides. The horse has had one run on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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4Noble Rocco53/100
Noble Rocco is a four-year-old with recent form figures of 7973 and a KTB Fit of 53. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the tactical nature of this steadily-run affair. Gordon Elliott has a strong 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 from 1455 runs, and Sam Ewing has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.07 from 151 rides. The horse has been placed once from four starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record.
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5Glendaars Secret52/100
Glendaars Secret is a five-year-old with recent form of 060 and a KTB Fit rating of 52. He typically settles in midfield and now tries first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.61 from 158 runs, while the jockey's course record is unavailable. The horse has had one run on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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6Hatfield Hammer49/100
Hatfield Hammer has recent form of 9-634U and is held up in his races. Trainer Paul Nolan has a 7% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.74 from 433 runs, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from four rides. The horse has one win from 11 starts on good ground with five placed efforts but has no course form on record.
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7Leo Messy48/100
Leo Messy has recent form of 000-83 and is usually held up. Trainer Thomas Gibney has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.61 from 199 runs, while the jockey has a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.4 from ten rides. The horse has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record.
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8Annie Button46/100
Annie Button has recent form of P26-10 and is held up in his races. Trainer Peter John Flood has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from five runs. The horse has one win from one start on good ground and has no course form on record.
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9Scary Askari46/100
Scary Askari has recent form of 0860-3 and is usually held up. Trainer Noel C. Kelly has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 77 runs, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from four rides. The horse has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record.
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10Sekakarma45/100
Sekakarma has recent form of 594231 and is held up in his races. Trainer W M Roper has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 42 runs, while the jockey has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.51 from 169 rides. The horse has one win from five starts on good ground with three placed efforts and finished sixteenth on his only previous run here.
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11Tomas O Maille44/100
Tomas O Maille has recent form of P9P830 and is usually held up. Trainer M Flannery has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 34 runs, while the jockey has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78 from 16 rides. The horse has one win from 16 starts on good ground with four placed efforts and finished tenth on his only previous run here.
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12Demanding Gerry44/100
Demanding Gerry has recent form of 0-24P4 and is held up in his races. Trainer James Andrew Fahey has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from eight runs, while the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.13 from 14 rides. The horse has been placed once from seven starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record.
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13Champagne Diamond44/100
Champagne Diamond has recent form of 5/0-86 and typically settles in midfield. Trainer T J O'Mara has a 3% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.35 from 112 runs, while the jockey has a 4% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.56 from 386 rides. The horse has had three runs on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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14Maxicourt44/100
Maxicourt has recent form of 9P3753 and is usually held up. Trainer Patrick J Duffy has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from four runs, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from 11 rides. The horse has been placed twice from eight starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record.
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15Subset42/100
Subset is a 12-year-old with recent form of 9F/2-P and typically settles in midfield. Trainer Peter Maher has a 4% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.01 from 23 runs, while the jockey has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.71 from 43 rides. The horse has one win from 13 starts on good ground with one placed effort and has finished 17th and 20th in two previous runs here.
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16At The Wings42/100
At The Wings has recent form of 00-775 and is usually held up. Trainer Norman Lee has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from 19 runs, while the jockey has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.76 from 25 rides. The horse has had eight runs on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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17Cinnabar Moth38/100
Cinnabar Moth has recent form of 055694 and is usually held up. Trainer Liz Doyle has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.53 from 153 runs, while the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.69 from 383 rides. The horse has had six runs on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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18Mr Erwitt36/100
Mr Erwitt has recent form of 9PP-PP and is held up in his races. Trainer V T O'Brien has a 3% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.41 from 314 runs. The horse has had four runs on good ground without placing and has no course form on record.
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19Monty's Way34/100
Monty's Way has recent form of 0-0087 and is usually held up. Trainer George Stanley has a 0% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0 from five runs, while the jockey has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.58 from 50 rides. The horse has one win from five starts on good ground with one placed effort and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Pure Logic stands out at the head of the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. His recent win gives him solid momentum, his hold-up style should be well suited to the steadily-run, tactical race that is anticipated, and the trainer's record at Navan offers some encouragement. The main dangers are likely to come from Tuckmill and Classy Cc, both rated 54 on KTB Fit and with credible recent efforts, while Noble Rocco and Glendaars Secret cannot be entirely dismissed from the principals.
KTB Selection Pure Logic
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Pure Logic | 7/1 | BetMGM |
| Tuckmill | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Classy Cc | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Noble Rocco | 17/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Glendaars Secret | 25/1 | BetMGM |
| Hatfield Hammer | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Leo Messy | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Annie Button | 8/1 | BetTom |
| Scary Askari | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Sekakarma | 15/2 | BetMGM |
| Tomas O Maille | 14/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Demanding Gerry | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Champagne Diamond | 25/1 | BetMGM |
| Maxicourt | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Subset | 80/1 | BetTom |
| At The Wings | 14/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Cinnabar Moth | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Mr Erwitt | 80/1 | BetTom |
| Monty's Way | 20/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 2:52 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit rating?
Pure Logic is the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 57/100.
What is the expected pace shape of the race?
The race lacks a leader with medium confidence, likely resulting in a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
How many runners are there and what is the distance and going?
There are 19 runners over 2m3f on good ground.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Glendaars Secret is wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan among the principals?
Gordon Elliott has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 from 1455 runs.
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