3:48 Listowel
The 3:48 at Listowel is a 17-runner maiden hurdle over 2m6f on good ground. A field lacking depth sees several lightly-raced types and debutants line up, with the KTB Fit scores suggesting a tight contest at the top where modest ability is the best on offer. The steadily-run, tactical nature of the race is likely to place a premium on being handy and conserving energy for the closing stages.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape points to a steadily-run affair where being handy should pay dividends. Rememberwhat is the one most likely to race prominently and set a sensible gallop, while the majority of the field are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent runners can maintain their position in a tactical race or if the closers will be able to pick up the pieces in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Rememberwhat KTB Selection57/100
Rememberwhat has shown steady improvement across his four starts and was a close second on his most recent outing. He now steps up to 2m6f for the first time, which poses a fresh question, though his prominent run-style should suit the steadily-run shape of this race. The P G Fahey yard posts a 12% strike rate at Listowel from 25 runs with an A/E of 1.00, while jockey Cian Cullinan has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.26 from only eight rides. He has been placed once from two starts on good ground and carries the KTB Selection tag with a Fit score of 57.
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2Haveanothertry53/100
Haveanothertry is a smart performer who has shown consistent form in shorter races, finishing in the first four on all five starts including a close second last time out. He steps up to 2m6f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him. The E McNamara yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample of 520 runs with an A/E of 0.53. Mark Walsh takes the ride and the pair have a 10% strike rate together from 76 runs with an A/E of 0.92. He remains unproven on good ground and will be held up, which could be a disadvantage in a tactical race.
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3Ocovango Lady52/100
Ocovango Lady has very little to go on after a fall on debut and a subsequent tailed-off effort. The step up from 2m to 2m6f asks a fresh question of a horse that remains lightly raced. Trainer Brendan Maurice Walsh holds a solid 15% strike rate at Listowel from 20 runs with an A/E of 2.01, though the jockey has a 0% strike rate from eight rides here. She remains unproven on good ground and her overall profile makes her hard to fancy despite the KTB Fit score of 52.
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4Misty Valentine52/100
Misty Valentine has shown very little in three starts so far, being pulled up or tailed off each time including when last seen at this track. The step up to 2m6f is an unknown and first-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark improvement. The M Winters yard has no recorded runners at Listowel, while the 5lb claimer has a 25% strike rate at the track from eight rides with an A/E of 1.36. She has two runs on good ground without placing and her held-up style may not be ideal given the pace shape.
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5Sharp As Glass50/100
Sharp As Glass has shown consistent placed form in three starts this year, finishing no worse than third and landing two seconds. The step up to 2m6f poses a fresh question having last run over 2m3f. Trainer S Curling has a 7% strike rate at Listowel from 27 runs with an A/E of 1.38, while jockey Phillip Enright has a 3% strike rate from 235 rides here with an A/E of 0.36. He will be held up in a race that may not play to his strengths and remains unproven on good ground.
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6Fuusland50/100
Fuusland has shown little so far with an unseated and a fourth from just two starts. Gordon Elliott has a solid 13% strike rate at Listowel from 323 runs with an A/E of 0.90 and Danny Gilligan is in the saddle. The step up to 2m6f is an unknown and with only two runs on the board the overall picture remains tentative.
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7Run Ted Run49/100
Run Ted Run made a winning start over 2m2f and now steps up markedly in trip as a lightly-raced 5-year-old. The Mullins yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Listowel from 744 runs with an A/E of 0.84 while Paul Townend is aboard. With only one run on the board the form has to be treated with caution though he has a win on good ground.
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8Gillane48/100
Gillane arrives in decent nick having won two of his last three starts and shown consistent placed form otherwise. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him at this new distance. The Cromwell yard posts an 11% strike rate here from 198 runs with an A/E of 0.96 and he will be held up.
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9Too Hot To Trot48/100
Too Hot To Trot showed fair form when second on debut over 2m3.5f and then ran creditably in a stronger race. The step up to 2m6f today asks a fresh question of a horse with only two runs in the book. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has a solid 16% strike rate from 262 runs at Listowel.
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10Minella Maverick46/100
Minella Maverick is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative at best. Trainer John Patrick Ryan has a solid 9% strike rate from 169 runs at Listowel.
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11Game Theatre46/100
Game Theatre has shown ability in a light campaign, winning on debut before finishing a respectable fourth last time. He now steps up in trip as a fresh question while carrying the de Bromhead colours. The yard posts a solid 16% strike rate from 262 runs at Listowel though he will be held up.
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12Tribal Thunder44/100
Tribal Thunder has shown only modest form in two completed starts and arrives here off the back of a poor run last time. The yard operates at a 7% strike rate from 118 runs at Listowel. This represents a step up in trip as a lightly-raced 5-year-old and the small sample means any assessment must be treated with caution.
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13Goodmancon44/100
Goodmancon is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form this season but has failed to win in 15 starts. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while his record on good ground is modest with no win or place from four runs. Trainer is 0-8 at Listowel and he will be held up.
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14Labondance44/100
Labondance has shown some ability in modest company but remains inconsistent and has yet to win in six starts. He was well held on his return at Downpatrick and now drops back to a trip he has tried twice without success. The Emmet Mullins yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Listowel.
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15Bobo Buck40/100
Bobo Buck is a 4-year-old debutant with no previous runs. The limited data means any assessment rests on his pedigree and sales background, which is not supplied here. Trainer Sean Joseph Allen has only three runs at Listowel, too small a sample to judge.
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16Urra Mass Rock40/100
Urra Mass Rock has been well beaten on both starts to date and arrives here with a very thin record. He steps up in trip having already looked limited over shorter and the small sample makes it hard to judge whether the extra distance will help. Trainer and jockey records at Listowel are both too small to read anything into.
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17Beyond Forgiveness38/100
Beyond Forgiveness is lightly raced with only two completed starts and a recent pulled-up effort so the form is hard to weigh up. Steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Listowel from 56 runs adds to the caution needed here.
KTB verdict
Rememberwhat is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of proven improvement and suitable run-style for this steadily-run maiden. His prominent racing pattern should allow him to dictate or track the pace in a race where being handy is likely to pay, and the Fahey yard's respectable record at Listowel adds confidence. The main dangers are Haveanothertry, who brings the highest level of prior form albeit with ground and trip questions, and the lightly-raced Run Ted Run from the powerful Mullins/Townend combination, though both will be held up in a race that may not suit. Ocovango Lady and Sharp As Glass complete the principals but have more to prove.
KTB Selection Rememberwhat
This is the narrative read of the 3:48 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running or race prominently?
Rememberwhat is the one most likely to race prominently as he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
How many horses in the field are stepping up to 2m6f for the first time?
Rememberwhat, Haveanothertry, Ocovango Lady, Misty Valentine, Sharp As Glass, Fuusland, Gillane, Too Hot To Trot, Game Theatre, Tribal Thunder and Beyond Forgiveness are all stepping up to 2m6f for the first time.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel in this race?
W P Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 744 runs.
How many of the principals are unproven on good ground?
Haveanothertry, Ocovango Lady and Sharp As Glass are unproven on good ground.
Which horse is the only one to have won on good ground?
Run Ted Run has 1 win from 1 on good.
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