4:52 Listowel
The 4:52 at Listowel is a beginners steeplechase run over 2m6f on yielding ground with a field of 13. A high-class performer in the making and several lightly raced types with placed form line up, though the KTB Fit scores suggest a race with a few question marks attached for most runners. Overall the numbers point to a competitive heat where experience over fences and trip suitability will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely run pace shape and high confidence, a front-runner is expected to be pressed by several handy types from the outset. Jarrive De Mee is the clear front-running type while Chanceawetmorning and Fort Dino like to race prominently and should be involved early. The majority of the field, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, which sets up a fair test where the key question will be whether the prominent runners can dictate or if the closers will be able to come through in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Will Do KTB Selection61/100
Will Do is a high-class performer who brings a strong ratings profile and plenty of big-race experience. He drops back from a lengthy 3m7f run to a trip where he has already placed, and he has shown he handles yielding ground with a win and two places from five attempts. The 9-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a solid 13% strike rate from 328 runs at Listowel while Jack Kennedy is on board, though the trainer and jockey figures at the track read 650/3433 (19%) A/E 0.88 and 11% strike rate A/E 0.71 respectively. Recent form reads 0P0PP- and he comes here with a KTB Fit of 61.
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2Rattledelatch56/100
Rattledelatch showed some ability when second over this trip at Cork last time and has placed once in two starts at today's distance. With only six career runs the horse remains lightly raced and the going suitability is still unknown after one run on yielding. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer John Queally has a solid 19% strike rate from 72 runs at Listowel while I. J. Power takes the ride, with the trainer-jockey combination reading 2/17 (12%) A/E 1.58. Recent form is 0-9602 and he holds a KTB Fit of 56.
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3I Will Be Baie51/100
I Will Be Baie showed useful ability when placed on his only run here at Listowel and has a solid recent form record of D1215. He drops back slightly in trip today having failed to win in one previous attempt at this distance. The 8-year-old is unproven on yielding ground. Trainer W. P. Mullins has a 19% strike rate from 765 runs at Listowel with Paul Townend aboard, their combined record reading 1213/3910 (31%) A/E 0.95. He has a course record of one second from one run and arrives with a KTB Fit of 51.
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4Ellens Pride50/100
Ellens Pride has shown little in nine runs to date and arrives on the back of modest recent form. The yard has a 7% strike rate from 28 runs at Listowel while the jockey has no recorded rides here. She is unproven on yielding ground and drops back from 3m to a trip she has tried once without success. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late. Trainer and jockey read 26/284 (9%) A/E 0.89 with recent form 04P764 and a KTB Fit of 50.
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5Chanceawetmorning48/100
Chanceawetmorning has shown some ability with a placed effort on this track and a win earlier this year but his recent form has been patchy and the fall last time raises a question. He is dropping back in trip today having never tried this distance before. The 6-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead. Trainer Gordon Elliott holds a 13% strike rate from 328 runs at Listowel with Danny Gilligan riding, their figures reading 80/636 (13%) A/E 0.91. He has a course record of one third from one run, going reads three runs on yielding with no win or place, recent form is 31934F and he has a KTB Fit of 48.
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6Fort Dino48/100
Fort Dino showed fair form when winning a maiden hurdle last season and has since run creditably when second on return at Killarney. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has a 15% strike rate from 276 runs at Listowel while jockey Darragh O'Keeffe has limited experience here, their record reading 158/981 (16%) A/E 0.84. Recent form is 418-2 and KTB Fit is 48.
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7Tackletommywoowoo47/100
Tackletommywoowoo arrives in decent form having won twice this year and showed his best effort here when second over further last season. He handles yielding ground with one win from two starts and drops back in trip today having looked stretched by three miles last time. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Listowel from 187 runs is a slight negative. Recent form reads 61170-, course record is one second and one sixth from two runs and KTB Fit is 47.
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8Love Me Tender46/100
Love Me Tender has shown steady placed form without winning, including a placed effort at today's trip and on yielding ground. He steps up in distance again today having last run over 2m2f, which asks a fresh question of him. Mullins has a 19% strike rate from 765 runs at Listowel while Cobden is making his first ride at the track, their record reading 9/39 (23%) A/E 1.14. Recent form is 3345-4 and KTB Fit is 46.
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9Largy Hill45/100
Largy Hill arrives off the back of two wins in his last three starts and looks to have more to offer with only seven career runs behind him. He steps up in trip today for the first time which poses a fresh question at this distance. Mullins has a solid 19% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample of runners while Slevin has limited experience here, their figures reading 6/39 (15%) A/E 1.22. Recent form is 73211/ and KTB Fit is 45.
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10Our Soldier44/100
Our Soldier arrives off the back of two wins last season but has been off since and now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. He showed little on his only run on yielding ground and the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample offers no encouragement. Recent form reads 92/11- and KTB Fit is 44.
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11Jarrive De Mee42/100
Jarrive De Mee arrives off a six-month break having shown smart bumper form before a modest hurdles debut last time. He drops back in trip to 2m6f where he has already been tried once without success. Mullins has a 19% strike rate from 765 runs at Listowel while Brian Hayes has limited experience here, their record reading 68/586 (12%) A/E 0.85. Recent form is 114/6- and KTB Fit is 42.
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12Barton Sky41/100
Barton Sky has shown little in four runs this year and arrives here off the back of a modest fifth last time. He steps up in trip having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 214 runs at Listowel, their record reading 1/60 (2%) A/E 0.34. Recent form is 2P-507, unproven on yielding and KTB Fit is 41.
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13Three County Star33/100
Three County Star is a fair performer who has shown little spark this year and finished well down the field on his only previous visit to Listowel. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from five runs at the track while the 5 lb claimer is also operating with limited local experience. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip he has tried twice without success and holds no strong positives on yielding ground. Recent form is 056P96 and KTB Fit is 33.
KTB verdict
Will Do stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a high-class performer with a strong ratings profile, big-race experience, and proven ability to handle yielding ground while dropping to a more suitable trip. The selection is expected to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a genuine gallop. His main dangers are the lightly raced and progressive Rattledelatch along with the useful I Will Be Baie who has already shown his liking for this track.
KTB Selection Will Do
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven on yielding ground with placed form at the trip?
Will Do has a win and two places from five runs on yielding and has already placed at today's distance.
How many principals prefer to race held up?
Three of the top five principals are usually held up and produce their effort late: Will Do, Rattledelatch and Ellens Pride.
Which runner has course form at Listowel?
I Will Be Baie has one second from one run here, Chanceawetmorning has one third from one run and Tackletommywoowoo has a second and a sixth from two runs.
Who is the only front-running type in the field?
Jarrive De Mee tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel among those represented?
W. P. Mullins has a 19% strike rate from 765 runs at Listowel.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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