3:55 Roscommon
The Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle at Roscommon is a 3m0f25y contest on good ground featuring a field of 13. With no obvious front-runner in a race that lacks a leader, the pace is expected to be steady and tactical. The KTB Fit scores highlight a competitive event led by Milan Forth on 67, with a cluster of principals from 61 down to 55 underlining the depth on offer.
How the race shapes up
Given the lack of an obvious leader and the prevalence of held-up runners, the race is set to unfold as a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy on the turn could prove advantageous. Most of the field will be waiting to pounce from off the pace, so the key question is which horse can produce its effort at the right moment in a race where positioning and timing will be critical.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Milan Forth KTB Selection67/100
Milan Forth is a smart performer who arrives in solid form having placed twice this season and shown strong recent ratings. He steps up to 3m for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the trainer has only had two runners at Roscommon so far. The jockey has a strong 40% strike rate here from five rides and the combination of 1 win from 4 on good ground and recent placed form makes him a major player. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will be looking to strike from off the steady pace. The 7yo has recent form figures of -24378 and carries the KTB Selection tag with a Fit score of 67.
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2Roc My Haarth61/100
Roc My Haarth is a useful performer who has placed once in three starts at this trip and steps back up in distance after his latest run over 2m. He makes his first appearance at Roscommon today with no prior runs here. The trainer holds an 18% strike rate from 17 runs at the track while the jockey is on 11% from 27 rides, though the horse remains unproven on good ground. Usually held up, he will be produced late in what is likely to be a tactical contest. With recent form figures of U261-6 and a KTB Fit of 61, he enters the reckoning as one who could improve for the return to a staying trip.
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3Charlie Luciano58/100
Charlie Luciano is a smart performer who has been mixing it at a high level this season with two wins and two seconds from his last five starts. He steps up to 3m for the first time today having failed to get competitive on his two previous attempts at the trip, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Noel Meade has an 18% strike rate at Roscommon from 563 runs while jockey Sam Ewing is operating at 5% from 42 rides here. With 3 wins from 15 on good ground, he has the surface in his favour and will be held up to deliver his effort late. His recent form of -4142P and KTB Fit of 58 keep him firmly in the picture.
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4Thornleigh Frank58/100
Thornleigh Frank is a smart performer who has shown useful form on his last two starts after a long absence. He steps up to an untried 3m today which asks a fresh question while this is also his first run at Roscommon. The yard has had too few runners here to judge but the jockey holds a solid 8% strike rate from 12 rides at the track and the horse is proven on good ground with 1 win from 4. Usually held up, he will be produced with his effort late in a steadily-run race. Recent form figures of /69-38 and a KTB Fit of 58 mark him down as an interesting contender.
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5Adaliz55/100
Adaliz is a useful performer who ran respectably when fourth on both starts this season and has solid placed form at today's trip. Dropping back from 3m1f looks a neutral move rather than a negative. She has only one previous run at Roscommon and that was poor, though the trainer's healthy 18% strike-rate at the track offers some encouragement. Usually held up, she will be waited with before delivering her challenge. With recent form of 0-9044, 1 win from 4 on good and a KTB Fit of 55, she cannot be ruled out.
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6Positive Thinker54/100
Positive Thinker is a smart performer who has placed at this track and shown he can be competitive on good ground. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance before though his recent form is patchy. The trainer has a solid record here while the jockey is operating at a modest strike rate.
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7Free Flowing54/100
Free Flowing is a useful performer on his day who has been out of form this year with a poor run when last seen. The trainer has a solid 9% strike-rate at Roscommon from 35 runs while the jockey's three rides here give too small a sample to judge. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before and his only run on good ground brought no win or place.
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8West Is Awake52/100
West Is Awake is a smart performer who has won over this trip and arrives in decent shape after two placed efforts last season. He has never run at Roscommon and his record on good ground is modest with no win or place from two starts. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from 34 runs while the jockey has had only three rides at the track.
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9Paradise Lost50/100
Paradise Lost is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Roscommon. He has been placed on his last two completed starts but showed no form on good ground in four previous attempts. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question.
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10Ilbdare49/100
Ilbdare is a useful performer who has won twice on good ground from seven starts and arrives in decent form after a placed effort last time. He drops back in trip to an untested 3m which asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Roscommon is offset by the jockey's solid 9% record here from a much bigger sample. This is his first run at the track.
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11Watching The Clock45/100
Watching The Clock is a smart performer who has run to a solid level on most starts and finished a clear second last time out over this trip. He has handled good ground in the past though without winning or placing, while the yard's modest record at Roscommon adds a note of caution. The jockey's low strike rate here is another factor to weigh.
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12Starzov42/100
Starzov is a useful performer on his day with a solid course record having won one of his two starts here. He has been out of sorts this year though with a string of poor efforts including two pulled up. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 220 runs at Roscommon while the jockey is still seeking his first winner from five rides at the track.
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13Smallcraftwarning40/100
Smallcraftwarning is a useful performer who has run to form on his sole visit to Roscommon when finishing third. He has placed twice from four starts at this trip and is competitive on good ground without having won on it. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here.
KTB verdict
Milan Forth stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer in solid recent form with two placings this season and strong ratings, he has the benefit of a jockey with a 40% strike rate at Roscommon and is proven on good ground. The step up to 3m poses a question, yet his ability to produce a late effort in a steadily-run race plays to his strengths. The main dangers are Roc My Haarth, who returns to a staying trip with strong trainer and jockey figures at the track, and Charlie Luciano, who brings high-class recent form despite his own stamina query. Thornleigh Frank and Adaliz round off a competitive group of principals who could all feature if the race develops as expected.
KTB Selection Milan Forth
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start over 3m in this race?
Milan Forth, Thornleigh Frank and Charlie Luciano are all stepping up to 3m for the first time today.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Roscommon among the principals?
Kevin Healy has a 40% strike rate at Roscommon from five rides when riding Milan Forth.
Which runner has course form at Roscommon?
Positive Thinker has finished third on his sole visit, Paradise Lost has won on his only previous visit, Starzov has won one of two starts here and Smallcraftwarning has finished third on his sole visit.
Which horse is unproven on good ground?
Roc My Haarth has had no runs on good ground and remains unproven on the surface.
How does the trainer of the selection fare at this track?
Simon Cavanagh has a 0% strike rate at Roscommon with an A/E of 0 from two runs.
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