7:15 Newcastle (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 7f14y on the standard surface at Newcastle features a field of 14 three-year-olds where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Lanarra tops the KTB rankings on 51 with a recent C&D success on this surface, while Territorial Star, Soul Warrior, Ice Show and Elias Escape follow closely on 50, 49, 49 and 48 respectively. The overall standard is modest and the KTB numbers underline that this is a race for limited performers, with the selection holding the strongest recent C&D credentials.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace shape assessed at high confidence and at least two habitual front-runners present, the early fractions are likely to be brisk. Ice Show and Diamond Aura are the two most probable pace influences from their front-running styles, while the majority of the field, including the top five in the KTB rankings, are held-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace. This sets up a race that could collapse late, posing the key question of which hold-up performer can best negotiate the strong gallop and deliver in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lanarra KTB Selection51/100
Lanarra is a limited filly who has won once from six starts this year and showed her best form when scoring over this trip on standard ground here last month. She has a solid record at this track and handles the surface well enough, with one win from one run on standard going. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is drawn in stall 9 and should be suited by the strong pace that is anticipated. The trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Newcastle from 90 runs is a negative, while James Sullivan's 6% strike-rate from 928 rides at the venue also offers limited encouragement. Her recent form of 343513 includes that C&D victory and she remains the KTB Selection.
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2Territorial Star50/100
Territorial Star is a limited performer who has shown just flashes of competitiveness on this track, most notably a second-place finish here last time. He steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time today, a trip he has tried without success on three previous occasions. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 6 and will hope the strong pace collapses in his favour. The yard records an 8% strike rate from 623 runs at Newcastle while the 5lb claimer Ethan Tindall has a 13% strike rate from 68 rides at the venue. His recent form of -65074 includes that placed effort and he has been competitive on standard ground without winning.
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3Soul Warrior49/100
Soul Warrior is a limited horse who has won once over today's trip from just two attempts but has otherwise struggled to make much impact. He has been well beaten in both runs here and shown nothing better on standard ground either, with two runs on the surface producing no win or place. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 3, he should be suited if the race falls apart late. The trainer's modest record at the track, with a 9% strike rate from 698 runs, adds little encouragement, as does the jockey's 7% strike rate from 274 rides at Newcastle. His recent form of 358871 includes that sole win at the trip.
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4Ice Show49/100
Ice Show is a limited performer who has failed to make the frame in five starts and looks up against it again from stall 8. Dropping back to 7f asks a fresh question after his latest effort over a mile, and he tends to make the running or race on the pace. He has shown nothing in two runs on standard ground and was fifth on his only previous visit to Newcastle. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Newcastle from 900 runs while Daniel Tudhope is operating at a 19% strike rate from 606 rides here. His recent form of 55603 gives little cause for optimism in a strongly-run race.
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5Elias Escape48/100
Elias Escape is a limited performer who has shown little spark in three runs since a debut eighth at this track. Placed once at this trip but that effort came in a weak maiden and he has failed to build on it, with one placing from one run on standard going. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a wide draw in stall 13, he will be hoping the strong pace does him a favour. The Fahey team has a modest 13% strike-rate here from 30 runs while Cam Hardie is 0-7 at the track from his 5% strike rate. His recent form of 5883 reflects his modest level.
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6Forever Twenty47/100
Forever Twenty is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in 11 starts and looks up against it from a wide draw in stall 12. He has run twice here without placing and is now 0-5 on the standard surface, though he drops back to a trip where he has placed once before.
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7Trucial Pearl45/100
Trucial Pearl is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing third on her only visit to Newcastle. She is dropping back from 1m2f to a trip where she has placed three times from four starts, though she remains winless on standard ground from six attempts.
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8Dream Forever44/100
Dream Forever is a limited horse who has shown his best form at this track, finishing second twice in five runs here without winning. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having been well held over 6f on his last two starts.
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9Sonbelievable44/100
Sonbelievable has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion. Dropping in class, the limited class read matches that modest level of form and the yard's poor recent record at this track adds no encouragement.
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10Tago Mago43/100
Tago Mago has shown little in six starts and looks limited on the balance of his form and ratings. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip earlier in the year and now tries first-time headgear.
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11Claytons Kolatonic41/100
Claytons Kolatonic is a limited performer who has shown very little in nine starts and now tries first-time headgear. Dropping back from 1m2f to 7f, four runs on standard ground have produced no win or place.
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12Lady Grey40/100
Lady Grey is a limited filly who has shown little in four starts so far. She steps up to 7f for the first time today having been well held over 6f last time and remains unproven on standard ground.
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13Diamond Aura39/100
Diamond Aura is a limited performer who has failed to win or place in 12 starts. She has been well beaten on all three runs here and shown nothing on standard ground in five attempts, though she tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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14Nefyn Queen33/100
Nefyn Queen is a limited filly who has shown very little in four starts to date and was well beaten on her only previous visit here. Dropping back from 1m2f to 7f and trying first-time headgear, she has a lot to prove.
KTB verdict
Lanarra is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard having won over this course and distance on standard ground last month. Her solid record at Newcastle and ability to handle the surface are plus points, and the strong pace shape should play to her usual hold-up style as she produces her effort late. She remains limited but holds the best recent form in the race. The main dangers are Territorial Star, who showed his best effort when second here last time and steps up to 7f, and Soul Warrior, who has won over the trip but has been well beaten on both visits to Newcastle. Ice Show and Elias Escape are next in the KTB order but face stiff tasks from their respective profiles.
KTB Selection Lanarra
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lanarra | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Territorial Star | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| Soul Warrior | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Ice Show | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Elias Escape | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Forever Twenty | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Trucial Pearl | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Dream Forever | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Sonbelievable | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Tago Mago | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Claytons Kolatonic | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Lady Grey | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Diamond Aura | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Nefyn Queen | 50/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course and distance form?
Lanarra, who won over this trip on standard ground here last month and has one win from one run at the course.
How is the race expected to be run given the pace shape?
Strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Newcastle according to the supplied data?
Richard & Peter Fahey have a 13% strike rate from 30 runs, Dominic Ffrench Davis 13% from a small sample of 8 runs, and David O'Meara 11% from 900 runs.
Which horses are trying headgear for the first time?
Tago Mago, Claytons Kolatonic and Nefyn Queen are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which front-runners are likely to set the pace?
Ice Show and Diamond Aura both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
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