6:00 Dundalk (AW)
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Legacy Stakes is a Listed race for two-year-olds over 5f on the standard surface at Dundalk. The thirteen-runner field features several useful performers with placed or winning form at this trip, though many remain unproven on the all-weather. KTB's Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 53 and 59, underlining a competitive evening heat where the supplied numbers point to a race that could fall to a horse suited by the expected strong pace.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, supplied by two or more habitual front-runners including Controlla, Magical Moonlight and Matriarchal. The race is likely to be run at a demanding clip on the straight, with the pace potentially collapsing in the final furlong. That shape would favour hold-up types such as Big Negotiator, Hanney Boy and Star Prospect, raising the key question of whether any prominent runner can withstand the late challenge from those racing off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hanney Boy59/100
Hanney Boy arrives with a KTB Fit of 59 and is a useful performer who has been consistent at this level, shown by his form figures of 233172. He has already won over today's 5f trip and was placed on his only previous run at Dundalk. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's strong 20% record from limited rides. Hanney Boy tends to be held up and produces his effort late, which aligns well with the expected strong pace. He has been competitive on standard going without winning and his overall profile suggests he will be thereabouts once again.
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2Big Negotiator KTB Selection59/100
Big Negotiator is rated a useful performer with a KTB Fit of 59 and has won twice at this trip from five attempts. His recent form of 104101 shows clear ability mixed with the occasional poor run, and dropping back from 6f looks a positive. The trainer strikes at 25% at Dundalk while the jockey is operating at a 10% strike rate, though the colt remains unproven on standard going and makes his first start at the track. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment, which should play to the race's strong pace shape. The KTB Selection is taken to capitalise on these factors.
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3Controlla59/100
Controlla carries a KTB Fit of 59 and is a useful performer who has shown steady improvement, landing a win last time out. He drops back to 5f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer holds a solid 23% strike rate at Dundalk while the jockey has struck at a 40% rate from a small number of rides here. Controlla tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will place him right at the heart of the strong pace that is anticipated. He remains unproven on standard going and without course form, adding layers of uncertainty to his challenge.
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4Shimmering Sun58/100
Shimmering Sun is a useful performer with a KTB Fit of 58 who has shown a good level of form in five starts this year. Dropping back to 5f looks a positive move having already won at the trip from three attempts, and the recent form figures of 17202 suggest consistency at this level. The trainer has no recorded runs at Dundalk while the jockey has a solid 10% strike rate from 847 rides here. Shimmering Sun is usually held up and produces his effort late, though that read comes with limited evidence and low confidence. He remains unproven on standard going and without course form.
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5Star Prospect53/100
Star Prospect is a useful performer with a KTB Fit of 53 who has already won over this trip and shown strong form on this track. Recent efforts have been a bit patchy though and first-time headgear is now reached for in an attempt to sharpen him. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 6%. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence in that style. Star Prospect remains unproven on standard going and without course form recorded.
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6Grayrobin52/100
Grayrobin is a useful performer who has already won twice at this trip from four attempts. Recent form of 81125 shows clear ability on this surface but also some inconsistency. The trainer is operating at a 0% strike rate from 15 runs here while the jockey's 9% record from 622 rides is modest. Grayrobin is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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7Brazilian Diva49/100
Brazilian Diva is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at this trip. She has already run well at Dundalk, finishing third on her only visit here, though the wide draw in stall 10 is far from ideal. The trainer holds a modest 9% strike rate at the track while the jockey records a 10% rate from a large sample. Brazilian Diva is usually held up and produces her effort late.
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8Magical Moonlight48/100
Magical Moonlight showed little on debut before winning a 5f maiden here last time. The form looks ordinary and the small sample means any judgement on ability has to be cautious. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Dundalk. Magical Moonlight tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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9Matriarchal46/100
Matriarchal is a fair 2-year-old who has already won over this 5f trip and showed useful placed form earlier in the campaign. She ran respectably when fourth on her only visit to Dundalk and the yard's record here is solid. First-time headgear is now added after two lesser efforts. Matriarchal tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Hidden Gift45/100
Hidden Gift has shown fair form across four runs and has been placed twice at this trip without winning. The yard has no recorded runners at Dundalk yet while Oisin Orr holds an 11% strike-rate here from 557 rides. He is stepping up in class and is usually held up, though that read comes with limited evidence.
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11Blooming Sally44/100
Blooming Sally has shown mixed form in two starts, finishing second then 11th, and now drops back to 5f where she has already been placed once without winning. The yard has an 8% strike rate at Dundalk from 926 runs while the jockey is on 7% from 621 rides here, both below par. With only two career runs data confidence remains low so this is a cautious read. Blooming Sally tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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12Southern Boulevard44/100
Southern Boulevard is a fair 2-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second on his last two starts. He has a solid record at Dundalk from limited runs and the yard posts a 17% strike rate here from a huge sample. The jockey's 7% strike rate from over 1,500 rides at the track is more modest and the wide draw in stall 11 adds a negative. Southern Boulevard is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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13Walk On Harry44/100
Walk On Harry is a fair performer who has already won over this trip. He showed good pace when fifth over course and distance last time but has yet to place here in one run. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Dundalk. Walk On Harry is usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
Big Negotiator is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip and looks well placed dropping back from 6f, with the strong pace shape expected to suit his hold-up style. The trainer's 25% strike rate at Dundalk adds to the appeal even though the colt is unproven on standard going and at the track. His main dangers are Hanney Boy, who brings strong consistency and placed form at Dundalk, and Controlla, who has been improving and will ensure the pace is strong from the front. Shimmering Sun and Star Prospect complete the main principals in a race where the late collapse of the pace could prove decisive.
KTB Selection Big Negotiator
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Hanney Boy | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Big Negotiator | 2/1 | BetTom |
| Controlla | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Shimmering Sun | 11/2 | BetTom |
| Star Prospect | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Grayrobin | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Brazilian Diva | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Magical Moonlight | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Matriarchal | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Hidden Gift | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Blooming Sally | 100/1 | Bet365 |
| Southern Boulevard | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Walk On Harry | 28/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are expected to set the strong pace?
Controlla, Magical Moonlight and Matriarchal are all noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field remain unproven on the standard going?
Eight runners have no runs on standard going.
Which horse is the only one to have won over 5f at Dundalk already?
Hanney Boy has won over today's 5f trip and was placed on his only previous run at Dundalk.
Who is first-time headgear being fitted to?
Star Prospect and Matriarchal are both wearing first-time headgear.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Dundalk among the principals?
Rowan Scott has a 40% strike rate at Dundalk from five rides on Controlla.
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