5:05 Nottingham
This Class 6 apprentice handicap over 6f18y at Nottingham on good ground features a field of 16 limited performers, the majority of whom have struggled to win races in recent times. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with My Dad Tom just heading the list on 60, followed closely by Rambuso Creek on 59 and Bleep Test on 56, indicating a race where small margins and the prevailing pace shape could prove decisive. Most of the principals are hold-up types, and with several horses yet to prove themselves at this trip or track, the contest looks open but low-grade.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, notably King Cherry and Imagine That, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. This is likely to set the race up for the numerous hold-up horses in the field, many of whom produce their effort late. The key question is whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages, allowing those racing from off the pace to pick up the pieces, or if one of the prominent runners can dictate matters and hold on.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1My Dad Tom KTB Selection60/100
My Dad Tom is a limited horse who has been below form since early summer and ran no sort of race last time out. He has shown ability at this trip on good ground but remains winless after 13 starts and is drawn wide today from stall 14. The yard has a solid Nottingham record with a 14% strike rate and A/E 0.9 from 351 runs, though the 7 lb claimer Ben Pollard has yet to ride here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the anticipated strong pace collapses in his favour in the latter stages.
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2Rambuso Creek59/100
Rambuso Creek is a limited performer who has won once from a single visit to this track and also has a win at today's trip on his record. Recent form has been patchy with just one success in the last six runs and he is now 0 from 22 at this distance since that victory. Trainer Michael Herrington has a solid 14% strike-rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.54 from 28 runs while the jockey is operating at a lower 8% strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be looking to benefit if the strong pace tells late on.
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3Bleep Test56/100
Bleep Test is a limited horse who has struggled this year with a string of poor efforts. He has won over today's trip but his only placing on good ground came in a small-field maiden and he now looks exposed in handicaps. Dropping in class, trainer Tim Easterby has a modest 9% strike-rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.81 from 621 runs while the 3lb claimer Jake Dickson has been notably more successful on his limited visits with a 27% strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 1 which could prove advantageous if the race develops as expected.
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4My Boy Jack54/100
My Boy Jack is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent runs without winning. Stepping up to 6f today having scored at the trip before though his record at it reads just 1-30 overall. Dropping in class, trainer Kevin & Lauren Frost hold a solid 14% strike-rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.09 from seven runs while the jockey has no recorded rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need the strong pace to materialise to play a part from his wide draw in stall 13.
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5Drish Samphire53/100
Drish Samphire is a limited performer who has looked modest at best this year and is now dropped into a Class 6 for the first time. He has won over today's trip and shown ability on good ground, though the recent form figures suggest consistency is not a strong suit. Trainer Lawrence Mullaney has an 8% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.82 from 36 runs while the claiming jockey Cian Horgan has done well with a small sample of rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he could be suited if the race collapses late.
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6The Feminine Urge52/100
The Feminine Urge is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year and is now on her 29th career start. She has shown enough on good ground to suggest she can be competitive at this level but steps up in trip today having last run over 5½f. The trainer is still seeking a first Nottingham winner from 22 attempts while the jockey has a solid 31% strike rate at the track.
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7King Cherry52/100
King Cherry is a limited sort who has already shown his best at this trip with a win from four starts. He ran poorly last time but had been in better form earlier this season and the yard's modest 6% strike-rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. Jockey has no recorded rides here and the horse has only once tackled good ground. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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8Golden Prosperity51/100
Golden Prosperity is a limited performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Recent form is ordinary at best and the jockey's modest strike-rate at Nottingham adds little confidence. Ground should be fine but overall he looks vulnerable in this field. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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9Imagine That49/100
Imagine That is a limited performer who has shown little in seven starts and remains winless. Has failed to place in five runs at this trip and the small sample on good ground leaves suitability unconfirmed. Trainer holds a solid 13% strike-rate here while the 3lb claimer has struck at a 25% rate from his handful of rides. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Golden Harvest48/100
Golden Harvest is a limited performer who has shown little in five starts to date. Recent efforts offer a glimmer of hope with placed form at this trip but the overall picture remains modest. Trainer's modest strike rate at Nottingham is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record here. Usually held up though with limited evidence.
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11Hope And Joy45/100
Hope And Joy is a limited performer who has shown little so far and was well held in two starts this year. Dropping back to 6f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal. Trainer records a 7% strike rate from 69 runs at Nottingham. No runs on good ground so far.
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12Hidden Verse42/100
Hidden Verse is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and is now trying headgear for the first time. Placed on his only visit to Nottingham but has failed to win in five runs at this trip and the yard is struggling here with a 0% strike-rate from seven runs. Jockey has had too few rides at the track to form any clear view. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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13Captain Bentley38/100
Captain Bentley is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on all six starts at this trip and failed to place in either run here. Has shown nothing in three starts this year and the yard have no recent winners to point to. Good ground does not look ideal either. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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14Asadjumeirah36/100
Asadjumeirah is a limited performer who has been in and out this year and is 5-46 at this trip. Has never run at Nottingham and is 0-3 on good ground so both those are unknowns. Trainer is operating at a 2% strike-rate here while the jockey has a more respectable 10% record at the track. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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15Nad Alshiba Snow35/100
Nad Alshiba Snow is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time without winning. He has shown no ability on good ground in six starts and steps up to 6f for the first time today having failed to place in three previous tries at the distance. The trainer’s modest record here and the jockey’s complete lack of success at Nottingham add further negatives. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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16Desert Master31/100
Desert Master is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has shown some competence at this trip and on good ground yet has never won in 50 starts and looks held by stronger opposition again. The trainer's poor strike-rate at Nottingham and the jockey's lack of success here add further negatives. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
My Dad Tom is the KTB Selection in a race where the majority of runners are limited and have patchy recent form. He has shown ability at this trip on good ground in the past and the yard's solid record at Nottingham offers some encouragement, even if the wide draw and recent poor efforts are concerns. The strong pace expected should suit his hold-up run-style if it collapses late. The main dangers are likely to come from Rambuso Creek, who has won here and at the trip, and Bleep Test, who drops in class from a good draw, while the likes of My Boy Jack and Drish Samphire cannot be entirely dismissed if the race sets up for the hold-up brigade.
KTB Selection My Dad Tom
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners present, which could cause the pace to collapse late and benefit those producing their effort from off the pace.
How does My Dad Tom's wide draw impact his chances?
My Dad Tom is drawn in stall 14 which is wide today, though as a usual hold-up performer he may be less affected than a prominent runner.
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
King Cherry and Imagine That both tend to make the running or race on the pace and are the most likely to contribute to the strong pace anticipated.
What is the trainer's record at Nottingham for the selection?
Richard Hannon has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.9 from 351 runs.
Which of the principals is dropping in class?
Bleep Test and My Boy Jack are both dropping in class, as is The Feminine Urge from the field.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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