4:25 York
This 17-runner Class 3 handicap over the minimum trip at York on good ground promises to be a typically competitive sprint. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Hallo Spaceboy heading the list on 61, closely followed by Tatterstall on 60 and Toca Madera on 57. Several runners are dropping in class, while the strong pace anticipated should play to those capable of producing their effort late.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is set to be strong, and the shape suggests it could collapse late in the race. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are hold-up types who will be looking to come from off the speed. The key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain the gallop or if the race will fall into the laps of those racing from the rear, as the high confidence in a strong pace favours late closers.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hallo Spaceboy KTB Selection61/100
Hallo Spaceboy is a fair 3-year-old who has shown solid form this year with two seconds and a win at this trip. He has already won at York from two starts and acts on good ground having scored once and placed on three other occasions from four runs. The yard's modest 9% strike-rate at the track is a slight negative but the jockey's 14% record here helps balance that. Dropping in class from an OR of 89, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. His recent form reads -22180 and he is drawn in stall 14. As the KTB Selection he holds the strongest claims on these figures.
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2Tatterstall60/100
Tatterstall is a useful performer who has won five times at this trip. He has run three times at York without placing and his latest efforts suggest he is struggling to find his best form. Trainer and jockey both operate at a steady 10% strike rate here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he carries an OR of 92 and his recent form is -32501. He has a 1-8 record on good ground with four places and is drawn in stall 6.
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3Toca Madera57/100
Toca Madera is a useful performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best when winning at this trip last time. He has been placed three times from five runs at York without winning and acts on good ground. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here. Dropping in class to an OR of 95, he is another who is usually held up. His recent form figures are 530201 and he is drawn low in stall 2.
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4Novamay55/100
Novamay is a useful performer on her day with a solid record on good ground that includes four wins from nine starts. She drops back to 5f today having won at the trip before, though her most recent efforts have been patchy. The yard has a respectable record at York but the jockey is still seeking a first winner here and she was well beaten on her only previous run at the track. Usually held up, she carries an OR of 90 from draw 7 with recent form 516810.
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5Schrodinger's Cat55/100
Schrodinger's Cat is a fair performer who has shown up well at this track with a second and a third from four runs. Dropping back to 5f is a positive as he has two wins at the trip though his recent form has been ordinary. Trainer holds his own at York while the jockey's modest strike rate here is a concern. Usually held up, he runs off an OR of 89 from a wide draw in stall 17 with form figures 265600.
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6Fortification52/100
Fortification is a fair 3-year-old who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs here. He has shown inconsistent form this year with a string of placed efforts mixed with lesser runs, and the wide draw in stall 12 adds another question today. The yard and jockey both have established but below-average records at York.
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7Against The Wind51/100
Against The Wind is a useful performer who has run well at this track without winning, finishing third on one visit and never out of the first six in his last three starts here. He drops back to 5f today where he has won three times from 15 attempts, though he has shown nothing on good ground in seven starts. Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott both have modest records at York.
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8Stargazed48/100
Stargazed is a fair performer who has run four times here without winning yet has been placed once. Recent form has been patchy and the wide draw in stall 16 is far from ideal on this track. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York and the horse has shown enough on good ground to be competitive at this level.
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9Equity Law46/100
Equity Law is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 28 attempts and handles good ground well with four wins from 16 runs. He has been below form on both previous visits to York and the yard's modest 6% strike rate here from a huge sample offers little encouragement. The jockey's similar 6% record at the track adds to the negatives on a day when the horse needs to bounce back from a patchy recent sequence.
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10Kodiac Thriller45/100
Kodiac Thriller is a fair performer who has won once from three runs at York and drops back to his winning 5f trip today. He has been out of form on his last three starts and is 0-5 on good ground without winning. Trainer Mark Walford has a modest 6% strike-rate at the track while Jason Hart sits on 8%.
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11Fidelius45/100
Fidelius is a fair performer who has been competitive on good ground and has a solid record at this trip with six wins from 31 starts. He has shown up well at York before, finishing second on his only visit here, though both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track. Drawn wide in stall 15 and coming off patchy recent form, he will need to bounce back to figure prominently.
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12Exclamation44/100
Exclamation is a fair performer who has been generally out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has won at this trip but only managed ninth of 22 when tried here on his sole visit to York. Trainer has a small sample at the track while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from ten rides at York.
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13Boston Dan42/100
Boston Dan is a fair performer who has been in and out this year. He showed his best at this track when second over C&D in June but has been well held in three runs here since and is 0-6 at York overall. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
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14Go Vince Go41/100
Go Vince Go is a fair 3-year-old with a solid record here, including one win from five runs at York. He drops back to 5f today after his latest run over 6f and has won at this trip before, though his form has been mixed of late with a string of placed efforts but no win since the spring. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at the track from a huge sample while the jockey is 4% from 56 rides.
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15Copper Knight40/100
Copper Knight is a modest 12-year-old who has won once from 16 starts at York and holds eight wins from 50 runs at this trip. His recent form of 090819 shows he can still pop up but he has been largely out of form this year. The yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at the track from a huge sample while the jockey is even quieter on 2% from 292 rides here.
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16Baldomero38/100
Baldomero is a fair performer who has been consistent enough through the season without winning. He drops back to 5f having won three times at the trip in the past yet his latest efforts suggest he is not quite as sharp as he once was. The yard and jockey both have modest records at York and his sole run here produced only a midfield finish.
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17Parisiac37/100
Parisiac is a fair handicapper who has run creditably at this track without winning, finishing fourth on his most recent visit. He drops back to 5f today having won seven times at the trip in the past, though his recent form has been patchy and he is drawn widest of all in stall 18. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York.
KTB verdict
Hallo Spaceboy stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including two seconds and a win at this trip, he has already won at York and acts on good ground. Dropping in class and with the jockey's strong record at the track helping to offset the yard's modest strike rate, he is well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late. Tatterstall, Toca Madera, Novamay and Schrodinger's Cat are the main dangers, all hold-up types who could be suited by the shape and have shown useful form at this level.
KTB Selection Hallo Spaceboy
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:09 UTC, 9 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Go Vince Go | 5/1 | LiveScore Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the York results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the York racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Hallo Spaceboy, Toca Madera, Novamay, Schrodinger's Cat, Against The Wind and Boston Dan are all dropping in class.
How many runners are usually held up?
Fourteen of the seventeen runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horses have previous winning form at York?
Hallo Spaceboy, Fortification, Kodiac Thriller, Go Vince Go and Copper Knight have all won at York.
Who has the best trainer and jockey combined strike rate at York among the principals?
Hallo Spaceboy's jockey has a 14% strike rate at York while the trainer is on 9%; Tatterstall's trainer and jockey are both on 10%.
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