7:30 Dundalk (AW)
A 17-runner apprentice handicap over 1m2f150y at Dundalk on standard ground looks a tricky puzzle with no obvious leader and a host of limited performers on modest ratings. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 52 and 38, underlining the competitive but low-grade nature of the contest where recent form, trip suitability and draw will all come into play. Overall the numbers suggest a race that will be decided by who handles the steadily-run conditions best and finds the right tactical position.
How the race shapes up
With no horse wanting to take the lead the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question will be whether the race develops enough pace for those coming from off the pace to make ground in the straight or whether those able to get a more prominent position can steal an advantage. The wide draws of several principals add another layer, as they may have to work harder to secure any sort of forward spot in a crowded field.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Banshof KTB Selection52/100
Banshof carries an official rating of 56 and has shown very little across six starts with recent form figures of 680008. The four-year-old was well beaten on his only previous visit to Dundalk and now steps up markedly in trip, which poses a fresh question of his stamina. Matthew J Smith holds a solid 10% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 237 runs with an A/E of 1.08, though the jockey's course record is unavailable. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Banshof will need the steadily-run race to unfold in his favour from draw 9 if he is to be involved at the finish.
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2Thompson Gunner51/100
Thompson Gunner is a limited performer rated 58 with modest recent form of 503557. He has won once from ten starts at Dundalk and once from four attempts at today's trip, yet steps up markedly in distance from his latest 6f run which adds a fresh question. John McConnell's 6% strike rate at the track from 1751 runs carries an A/E of 0.73 while the 4 lb claimer Jessica O'Gorman operates at 5% from 58 rides with an A/E of 0.79. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the five-year-old has one win from 11 starts on standard ground and will need the tactical race to develop favourably from his low draw of 2.
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3Storm Eric50/100
Storm Eric is a limited performer rated 54 who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first three on five of his last eight starts with form figures of 232823. He boasts a solid record at Dundalk with three wins from 33 starts and has handled the standard surface well with three wins from 33 attempts. The seven-year-old steps up to this trip which asks a fresh question, while the wide draw in stall 13 is another negative. Jamie Flynn holds a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.68 from 34 runs and the 7 lb claimer Adam Grant is on 7% from 45 rides with an A/E of 0.64.
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4Ventriloquist49/100
Ventriloquist is a limited three-year-old rated 52 who has been well beaten in all three starts to date with form figures of 000. He drops back in trip today which poses a fresh question for a horse with too few runs to judge his ideal conditions, and he remains unproven on standard ground with no course form on record. John McConnell's modest 6% strike rate at Dundalk from 1751 runs carries an A/E of 0.73, though the 7 lb claimer Adam Browne-Souza has shown fair form here at 11% from 44 rides with an A/E of 1.24. Usually held up, he will need the steadily-run affair to suit from his draw of 11.
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5Jazz Forever48/100
Jazz Forever is a limited performer rated 48 who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts, though his recent form figures of 300002 include a second last time out. The six-year-old does have a win over this trip on his record and has scored once at Dundalk from 13 starts here, even if his more recent efforts at the track have been modest. Paul W Flynn and Jack Kearney both hold an 11% strike rate at the venue from large samples, with the trainer on an A/E of 1.02 from 474 runs. Usually held up with medium confidence, he has one win from 13 starts on standard ground.
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6Doctor Grace47/100
Doctor Grace is a limited performer rated 51 who has won once from 31 starts at Dundalk and once from 26 attempts at today's trip. She has been out of form for most of this year with a string of poor runs either side of an unseat, though the trainer's modest 10% strike rate from nearly 2000 runs here is offset by the jockey's solid 14% from 88 rides at Dundalk.
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7Captain Hanley47/100
Captain Hanley is a limited performer rated 50 who has been placed a few times at this track without winning. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has tried four times before without success and recent form has been patchy, though the trainer's modest record here is offset by the jockey's solid strike-rate at Dundalk.
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8Barretstown45/100
Barretstown is a limited performer rated 37 who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He does have solid course connections having won four times from 23 starts at Dundalk and has also won at today's trip in the past, though the trainer's modest 9% strike-rate at the track from a big sample offers no particular encouragement from stall 12.
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9Star Mind45/100
Star Mind is a limited performer rated 58 who has run ten times at Dundalk without winning, his best effort a placed finish over this trip. He has shown little spark in recent starts and the wide draw is another negative from stall 14, while the trainer's modest 7% strike-rate here adds no confidence.
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10Onyeisi45/100
Onyeisi is a limited performer rated 44 who has struggled this year and finished no better than seventh in six starts since April. He has only one run at this trip and was well held on his sole previous visit to Dundalk, though the trainer's modest 5% strike rate here is offset by the jockey's solid 15% record at the track.
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11Kingcharles45/100
Kingcharles has shown very little in six starts with a string of modest efforts and is a limited performer rated 50 on the balance of his ratings. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Dundalk from 161 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from 157 rides here, and stepping up in trip poses a fresh question with going suitability hard to judge.
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12Timandi44/100
Timandi is a modest performer rated 60 who has run seven times at Dundalk without winning or placing, showing ordinary form at best. He steps back up to 1m2f today after a recent run at the trip where he has been beaten all four starts, while the trainer has a 3% strike rate from 159 runs at the track and the jockey records 7% from 214 rides here.
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13Ebony Reign44/100
Ebony Reign has shown very little in three starts to date and carries the limited tag at an official rating of 53. The yard is struggling at this track and first-time headgear is now fitted as the 3-year-old steps up markedly in trip, though the jockey holds a solid record here.
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14Aiteall43/100
Aiteall is a limited performer rated 53 who has shown little spark in six starts and finished a remote eighth on his only visit to this track. He has managed a placing at today's trip but that was in a weak race and he has been well beaten on his last two outings, though the trainer has a solid 15% strike rate here from a huge sample.
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15Colugo41/100
Colugo is a limited horse rated 48 who has been placed three times at this track without winning and steps up in trip today. Recent form has been poor and the trainer holds a 0% strike rate from 43 runs here while the jockey also operates at a low 4% strike rate from 46 rides at Dundalk.
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16Master Garvey39/100
Master Garvey is a limited performer rated 36 who has been running over shorter trips and now steps up to 1m2f for the first time in a while. He has won once from 19 starts at Dundalk on standard ground, though the trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 123 runs and a wide draw in stall 16 adds another negative.
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17Zitkala Sa38/100
Zitkala Sa is a limited performer rated 50 who has failed to land a blow in nine starts and looks no better than fair at best on these figures. He has run twice at this track without placing and drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time, while the trainer remains winless from 68 attempts at Dundalk.
KTB verdict
Banshof is the KTB Selection in a race full of limited performers where few boast strong recent form. The selection has shown very little in six runs yet the trainer's solid 10% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample provides some encouragement, and the step up in trip could unlock improvement if the steadily-run race plays to his held-up style. Thompson Gunner, Storm Eric and Jazz Forever are the most obvious dangers on their course records and consistency, though each carries question marks over the trip or draw. Ventriloquist and the remainder of the field largely add depth rather than depth of quality to what looks a modest contest.
KTB Selection Banshof
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Banshof the KTB Selection despite modest recent form?
The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate at Dundalk from a big sample of 237 runs with an A/E of 1.08, and the step up markedly in trip asks a fresh question that could suit.
Which horses have the strongest course records at Dundalk?
Storm Eric has three wins from 33 starts, Barretstown has four wins from 23 starts, and both Thompson Gunner and Jazz Forever have one win apiece from ten and 13 starts respectively.
How does the lack of an obvious leader affect the race?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, with most runners held up and producing their effort late.
Which runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Banshof, Thompson Gunner, Storm Eric, Ebony Reign and Colugo are all stepping up markedly in trip today.
What are the main negatives for the top-rated horses?
Banshof was well beaten on his only Dundalk run, Thompson Gunner has modest recent form and a modest trainer-jockey combination at the track, while Storm Eric has a wide draw in stall 13.
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